MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[tsptalk]

Since I can no longer post from work (my work computers still think this site is contaminated with MALWARE and a TROJAN VIRUS),

Do you dare ask your IT folks to check on this? It turned out to be a false positive from Google on some benign code, and they have removed the block on their end. Not sure what's happening on your end that makes them continue to block. All browser I have checked have given it the all's clear.

 

[PLANO]

With Stockcharts, you can adjust the parameters on any of the indicators to suit your trading style. The default setting of 14 doesn't provide any meaningful signals for this model, however, a setting of 92 provides the rare confirmation that a bear market is in full swing (along with the crossing of the 10 and 50 week exponential moving averages). The SRSI level of 0.10 is just a visual way to avoid whipsaws.

Thanks for that. In your mind, how does using the MACD compare to using the SRSI as a confirmation to avoid whipsaws? Are they equally good or is there an advantage to using the SRSI?

 

[sniper]

NUGT/DUST looks like it just barely produced a switch at the end of the day to NUGT. Since I can no longer post from work (my work computers still think this site is contaminated with MALWARE and a TROJAN VIRUS), technically, it now holds NUGT. For those of you paper trading this system, if there is ANY upside at the open tomorrow for NUGT, that would be the time to get in. (If it's a negative day for NUGT, I would hold off on making the switch). I find it amazing that the uptrend line and the timing band coincided almost perfectly to the day to produce this signal. Now let's see if it pans out, and if it does, how long it will last...

please tell me you were holding NUGT lol. 30% in one day, not bad :nuts:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

NUGT/DUST: Well, I guess that answers THAT question if we got a signal to switch or not. Jeez! :nuts:

Congratulations to those of you holding NUGT!

 

[Dutchy]

99 dollars for NUGT( upper BB band), here we come !!!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

After the huge run-up in the markets on Wednesday, I'm not surprised to see them taking a breather here. I Fund (EFA), S Fund, C Fund, and the DOW 30 have all hit the 70+ level on their respective RSI's, which usually indicate an "overheated" condition. I'm going to remain fully invested during this "cool-down" period, unless I see more serious cracks in the technical indicators.

 

[Dutchy]

Dutchy....99 dollars for NUGT( upper BB band), here we come !!!

Well I guess not... NUGT down to $55 area today. Mr. JR, System on DUST today ?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Well I guess not... NUGT down to $55 area today. Mr. JR, System on DUST today ?

Yes, system switched to DUST at the close. However, with this much volatility, I am not placing any of my personal money on this bet. The swings are just too wild, even for me! I'm happy just to watch from the sidelines. In awe. :blink:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

That was a rough close for the markets. It looks like the S&P is right on the edge of pushing me into the G Fund. The DOW sliced deep into negative territory, but the Transports don't look as bad.

Since I only have one IFT remaining, I need to be sure before I place my bets. Monday will be an extremely busy day for me at work (still can't post from work), so let me just lay my plan out now. If the markets are down hard again, I am likely to move to G. A mild down day, or anything flat to positive will keep me in.

Don't forget: The DOW is going to be different beginning Monday. Three new high priced stocks are going in (Visa, Nike, Goldman Sachs), and three low priced stocks are going out (Alcoa, Hewlett Packard, and Bank of America). This will make the DJIA appear to go higher than in the past, which the current administration will love to see. Ain't politicians wonderful?

 

[Dutchy]

MrJohnRoss....Yes, system switched to DUST at the close. However, with this much volatility, I am not placing any of my personal money on this bet. The swings are just too wild, even for me! I'm happy just to watch from the sidelines. In awe. :blink:

I agree NUGT/DUST is just to volatile right now.. I had planned on holding my NUGT to attempt to further recoup my losses, but put in a stop on Thursday AM after Wednesday's big day and sold with 31% loss. However, with Thursday, Friday's big moves down, I'll just take it and be glad that I'm off of the NUGT/DUST rollercoaster!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

....Don't forget: The DOW is going to be different beginning Monday. Three new high priced stocks are going in (Visa, Nike, Goldman Sachs), and three low priced stocks are going out (Alcoa, Hewlett Packard, and Bank of America). This will make the DJIA appear to go higher than in the past, which the current administration will love to see. Ain't politicians wonderful?

Hi Mr. Ross, So would there be any affect on our TSP share prices ??

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Hi Mr. Ross, So would there be any affect on our TSP share prices ??

None. The C, S, I, and F Funds will still have the same holdings. But when someone says "the market went up 100 points today", it won't mean nearly as much as it did before, because of these higher priced stocks. Expect the DOW to be somewhat higher because of this in the future.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

None. The C, S, I, and F Funds will still have the same holdings. But when someone says "the market went up 100 points today", it won't mean nearly as much as it did before, because of these higher priced stocks. Expect the DOW to be somewhat higher because of this in the future.

Ok. So we are just increasing the benchmark!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

As planned, the down market today was enough to get me to move to the G Fund. Not expecting anything severe, but it was time for a market cool-down period after most of the indices hitting 70+ in their respective RSI levels.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Are you holding/buying in NUGT or DUST? NUGT is down around $50.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

NUGT/DUST System continues to hold DUST. Forgot to post this yesterday, my apologies.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sold nearly all my stocks in the last few days. Almost all of them have hit my personal threshold for a sell.

The S&P has triggered a Stochastics sell signal as well, recently moving below the 80 threshold that many traders use as a sell signal.

Taking a look at timing bands:

The last two downdrafts were timed as follows (from top to bottom):
5/22 - 6/24 = 1 mo, 2 days
8/2 - 8/27 = 25 calendar days

So roughly one month (~29 calendar days) for each downdraft.

The most recent high was on 9/18, so if we get the same wavelength this time, we're looking at a bottom of this wave at or near Oct 17. Of course, it never works this perfectly in real life, but this may at least give a possible rough idea on how long this might last.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Oh, by the way, I asked our I.T. dept at work about getting the TSPTalk Forum off the blacklist, but they told me that it's an automatic security system that their software uses to block websites with potential malware. There is nothing they can do to individually give the okay to any particular website. Bummer. However, they did say that if the website is now clean, the software *should* allow it to be accessed again in the near future. I certainly hope so! :worried:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

... and BAM! I'm back to being able to read and post from work. Thank goodness! :nuts:

 

[nnuut]

We are CLEAN Gene!