Mike's Account Talk

[Mike]

imported post

saraho wrote:

You ought to backtest your "higher high" scenario and see what it would have gotten you in past years...

I don't agree with the concept of backtesting. The underlying assumption of doing that is the previous market conditions are being repeated, thus you can say "this approach has a ___% chance of giving me a good return".

I don't see this situation as terribly bullish. Past earnings have been generally strong, but the market looks to the future - and that future will likely feature more modest earnings, rising interest rates, a continuing large trade deficit, a continuing large budget deficit, and perhaps a military conflict with Iran over its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons. Oh yeah, oil prices are also high. The only thing going for us right now is steady 3-4% economic growth. Will that and slowing earnings growth be sufficient to overcome the rest? That's the battle being fought in the market right now.

 

[Mike]

imported post

I pulled the trigger today to get back in and hedged 50-50 between C and I. The EAFE was down about 0.5% and the dollar is up a bit, which is likely to create a buying opportunity of sorts in the "up, up, and away" I fund.

My play on the C fund is based on my belief that the jobs report will come in positively tomorrow. The weekly numbers of those filing for unemployment benefits have been coming in quite low over the past month. I think the last one was the lowest we've seen since 2000.

I think a piece of good news from a closely watched jobs report is all it will take to bump us out of this trading range. :^

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Mike wrote:

I think a piece of good news from a closely watched jobs report is all it will take to bump us out of this trading range. :^

Ditto!

 

[Guest]

imported post

Mike wrote:

My play on the C fund is based on my belief that the jobs report will come in positively tomorrow.

Job report is on Friday. Tomorrow is Productivity, Intitial Claims and ISM.

The job report is not a shue in. Lots of M&A = lots of job losses. Just do not know when they will start reflecting in the monthly reports. I believe MCI came out today and said they would cut 3K and Marshall said they would cut 5K. I am not following that to close so do not quote me. I would rather be out of the market on job reports for here until the M&A activity are flushed out.

Just my .02. Do what you think is best. Do not want to get into a bash feast just want to point out things that happened in the past.

 

[pyriel]

imported post

Dr_Dubious wrote:

Mike wrote:

My play on the C fund is based on my belief that the jobs report will come in positively tomorrow.

Job report is on Friday. Tomorrow is Productivity, Intitial Claims and ISM.

I would rather be out of the market on job reports for here until the M&A activity are flushed out.

Might be a good buying opportunity for Friday then?

 

[Guest]

imported post

Py sorry for posting in your account...sorry again. You hit a cord. Taking 30 minutes to do a 20 second transaction is a little much...especially when the deadline is fast approaching...the Mission Impossible music was in my head at the end .

The pattern is Friday rally, first day of week BIG SELL off. So I would recommend if the job report comes in good go 100% I (like I will - LOL) and hope to catch the rally in the international markets then go back to G again for Monday. That trade balance report is going to be a black eye - IMHO.

Look to buy into the trade balance report on the 11 because Expiriration Monday 14th is about the surest thing we are going to get. Of course with this market, 10 minutes from now I may be doing a 180 or 360 or 480.

Once again I am sorry for posting in your account...

 

[pyriel]

imported post

Dr. D, Don't worry about it. Sounds like a good advice which is similar to what I amthinking.Thank you.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Thanks for being open minded. Of course do what you believe is best. The good thing about being in G fund Friday morning is you have some flexibility. The report comes in bad you are hunkered down, if the report is good then you can go to the I fund. However, the market is not reacting to the news. I got screwed on this in Germany this week. The job report came in the worse in their history and the market rallied. So I am kind of :h.

Now the worry we got crude in the futures at 53.75. Not sure when that starts to weigh on the markets. But it can not help. Just hoping it waits for one day. Presently 100% in I.

We will be seeing 64 this winter. Futures contracts???

 

[Mike]

imported post

Tomorrow is my Friday, so .

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm

I'm watching the claims as well as the payroll report.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Happy Hunting. All economic reports are important...that is a sign of a market that is on its heels, topping, hurting, etc.

I would watch crude also. I can not get to my futures board (there must be lots of people watch - nervous too). But the last I was able to get on it was heading to 54.

Well Asian did ok. Going to pack it in to play CAPT Kirk over my shorts. Got 95 locked and loaded into the system.

Have a good day. Happy weekend and all that jazz (horrible movie by the way).

 

[tennisguy]

imported post

I don't get it? If the job report is good then go to the I fund on Friday. When you mention "good" does that means positive job report?

Currently 50c 50s is this a good place to be before fridays job report.

Thanks

Tennisguy

 

[Mike]

imported post

Some like to go to the I fund the day a good report comes out - because the US market takes off (giving you gains on Friday), then the international markets *tend* to take off the next trading day in response to our own markets.

 

[tennisguy]

imported post

Thanks for explaining. I will be watching to see what happens

Tennisguy

 

[Big Mac]

imported post

saraho are you a night shifter too?

What do you think of the F right now?

 

[Mike]

imported post

Sarah no longer posts here.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Mike wrote:

I pulled the trigger today to get back in and hedged 50-50 between C and I.

I am rooting for ya!

 

[IBD Fan]

imported post

Mike wrote:

Sarah no longer posts here.

Where is saraho - I miss her.

 

[Rod]

imported post

IBD Fan wrote:

Mike wrote:

Sarah no longer posts here.

Where is saraho - I miss her.

She never existed. She was one of MT's alter egos...

 

[IBD Fan]

imported post

Just like a married couple??

 

[Mike]

imported post

I'm going with my contrarian thinking and am selling into the strength. Oil prices are dropping a bit thus far today, but remain over $50. Any jitters in that area could trigger a quick sell-off in the markets - which is forcing me to approach this more in an oscillation mode than a "we're going to take off into the stratosphere" bull mode. So, I'm going to bank what *should* be solid gains since I entered earlier this week.

At the end of today, I will be 100 G.