Mike's Account Talk

[Dave M]

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I'm with you. Mike. So far I have forfeited onlymodest gains by being100G for the last couple weeks. I have discovered during this time I am highly averse to risk! Every time I seea little gain in the S&P, I consider moving in but then that little voice starts whispering...

Last year was darn good and right now I am simply protecting those gains. Say, I lived in St Paul for many years; how's it going up there?

 

[Mike]

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Eh, it's going. Definitely not the most fearsome winter I've seen.

 

[Guest]

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saraho wrote:

You've really been 100% G thru this rally? Why? All the equities are above their 50 day MAs.

What rally?

For the week S&P wasup 3and the NAS was down 10.

How quickly you forget and how quickly you forgot January?

Greenspan is talking on the hill next week...risk/reward.

The Spaf special...smart money buys on good news and sells on the bad, the market has been been buying if the news was NOT that bad. This is the buy on dipmotley cruefrom Feb 2000 that quickly forgot what a down market feels like.

The most important index to the market the NAS is way under its 50DMA.

So goes the NAS it drags the other with it up or down....don't be a clown :shock:. This chart does not look like any shape or form to be a rally...this is the suck ya in on Friday spit ya out on Monday game.

 

[Guest]

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Dave M wrote:

I'm with you. Mike. So far I have forfeited onlymodest gains by being100G for the last couple weeks. I have discovered during this time I am highly averse to risk! Every time I seea little gain in the S&P, I consider moving in but then that little voice starts whispering...

Last year was darn good and right now I am simply protecting those gains. Say, I lived in St Paul for many years; how's it going up there?

Dave,

Listen to that little voice it is called common sense...your first reaction is called need and greed...and that never works out. Looking forward to the posts on here when accounts have fallen 20%. Not going to say I told you so...just going to say....Hey you only need to be up 40% to be back to even...40% should only take you about, hmmm.....4.5 years to get back to where you are now....hang in there. That "rally" - that got the week back to EVEN was calling ya huh? Do not get sucked in...not to sure where the reality is....Tekno, Sarah, Spah, etc, etc...the week was flat...you are all screaming bulls after Friday...be freaking careful. THE WEEK WAS FLAT.

 

[Montana]

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Depends on which funds you are in and which days. One of the funds is always making money or at least breaking even. Play the percentages. :^

 

[Guest]

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Montana wrote:

Depends on which funds you are in and which days. One of the funds is always making money or at least breaking even. Play the percentages. :^

Oh boy - tell me it is not 2000 again???...this is not a stock market anymore it is a casino...everyone thinks the next pull they will get rich...not this kid...me going short...me going hard....me going deep...Apple watch continues....

 

[Mike]

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Don't hijack my account talk with your bearish sentiment.

-The Management-

 

[Guest]

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Sorry Mike...everyone I talk to is screaming bullish...ya got to make money...it all ways goes up (hmm) the market....when I got to vegas I all ways win...the one that got a away....

Have a great day champ...keep up on the prowel for that internet date!!! I am 5'11, 133 pounds, 36-22-34, 20yr with blonde hair and blue eyes = 5'3" 245 kilos, 36-46-55 - with four kids. Montanawe know trees go to theskybut the market has been range bound (get it haha) for over five years now...it is over extended and is going to get choppeddown (get it ha ha)....

 

[Montana]

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5 years huh? If I listened to you I would have missed out on over 60% return overall in all my investments in 03 and 14% last year. You keep screeming "BEAR" and you're gonna get it right about every 2 1/2 years. Go hide in your cave and watch me count my money. $$$$$$$$$$ (Its a joke, don't get grumpy on me)

 

[Guest]

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OK fax man...

average gain in a bull market is 55.7

average bull run last 26 months

Historic fax (sarah) would say we are over extended..that why I made that comment...

I am not bearish because I want to be I am bearish because I need to be...keep thinking trees grow to the sky in big sky (get it ha ha).

Ok got to run...got to pop into a internet date....

 

[Guest]

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Pat_1111 wrote:

OK fax man...

average gain in a bull market is 55.7

average bull run last 26 months

Historic fax (sarah) would say we are over extended..that why I made that comment...

I am not bearish because I want to be I am bearish because I need to be...keep thinking trees grow to the sky in big sky (get it ha ha).

Ok got to run...got to pop into a internet date....

Did you take this nic after a Sat. Night Live character.....................now I get it!

 

[namor]

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Pat_1111 wrote:

this is not a stock market anymore it is a casino...everyone thinks the next pull they will get rich...

If it's a casino then I am in my environment. Except for the slot machine reference. If you want to lose money, play slots. Otherwise, use your resources to gather the informationto play wiggles correctly and you can do well.

Good luck in your investments.

 

[Guest]

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Mike wrote:

I'm also a little wary after what happened in January. I do not want the rug yanked out from beneath me while I'm 100% invested again. :shock:

I agree, but with the ability to switch each day, you have some flexibility...

 

[Mike]

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I have seen a strong correlation between the number of moves I make and the return on my account going in the opposite direction. If I'm forced into making more than one move per week, something is wrong with my approach.

 

[Guest]

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Mike wrote:

I have seen a strong correlation between the number of moves I make and the return on my account going in the opposite direction. If I'm forced into making more than one move per week, something is wrong with my approach.

I agree. And if I could only make 4 switches in a year, I'd probably be in 100% G also. But with all the equities being above their 50 day MAs, and with the ability to switch daily, it sure seems quite conservative to be 100%G in this scenario.

 

[Mike]

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I'm waiting for confirmation one way or the other. I see no real point in putting everything at risk for what could amount to nothing more than a downward trending trading range... or worse yet, a failed attempt at a higher high followed by a steep decline.

I'm much more concerned about downside risk right now than missing out on a small uptick that is short-lived. The market only moved 0.2% (S&P) above where it finished the previous Friday when I sold. As much as some want to be excited about this past week, all things considered, I'd say it looked pretty sideways to me. Maybe we'll break out, maybe we won't - but we are no closer to that high now than we were a week ago.

 

[Guest]

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You ought to backtest your "higher high" scenario and see what it would have gotten you in past years...

 

[Guest]

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Mike wrote:

I have seen a strong correlation between the number of moves I make and the return on my account going in the opposite direction.

Me too.

 

[Guest]

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saraho wrote:

Mike wrote:

I have seen a strong correlation between the number of moves I make and the return on my account going in the opposite direction. If I'm forced into making more than one move per week, something is wrong with my approach.

I agree. And if I could only make 4 switches in a year, I'd probably be in 100% G also. But with all the equities being above their 50 day MAs, and with the ability to switch daily, it sure seems quite conservative to be 100%G in this scenario.

Reread what Mike said. I think you DISAGREE with what he said.

 

[Guest]

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greg wrote:

Reread what Mike said. I think you DISAGREE with what he said.

*Sigh* Greg,you don't understand.

I agreed with what Mike said. I think the more switches, the less productive they are. I also think that the less switching the better. HOWEVER, the fact that you are allowed to switcheach daygives you certain flexibility that you would nototherwise have. As a result,you would switch atdifferent times.