As the bulls had hoped, Santa Claus came to town on Christmas Eve (Tuesday) and the indices took off. Large cap tech led again, helping the C-fund to lead the TSP funds on the day. Small caps came on strong to post a near 1% gain, and the I-fund lagged as the dollar pushed to new highs. Bonds were up slightly as yields were mixed - the 10-year yield was up, and the 30-year yield was down.
As promised, because I am writing this on Christmas night, and because the market cooperated with the seasonal calendar, I'm not going to add much to Tuesday's commentary, which I will leave below for anyone who missed it.
Thanks so much for stopping by, and I hope everyone is enjoying their holiday week! I will see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12/24/24
Stocks started the new week with a negative open, but they found their footing just after 10 AM ET, and from there the bulls took control. The Dow closed down compared to the large gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but the small caps couldn't keep up. We saw strength Treasury Yields and that not only held the F-fund back, but the S-fund had to battle back from a big morning loss, just to still close slightly negative on the day.
It was good, but not great for the S&P 500 yesterday. The bulls will take a 0.73% gain any day of the week, but once again, like on Friday, the rally stalled at the 20-day EMA, and yesterday it didn't quite hit Friday's high. That keeps the bulls on their toes for another day as things could roll back over here, but that's getting picky and we know that for the next two weeks the calendar will be modestly at the backs of the bulls, so I probably shouldn't be too pessimistic, although the chart says it needs that wind at its back to bust through resistance.
The volume spike on Friday was from the quadruple witching expiration day, but it should start drying up this week.
Some strength in the yields of the 10-Year Treasury Note gave the small caps a run for their money as they didn't even finish the day in positive territory. I'm crazy about the looks of this yield chart with the higher high, and the longer term chart below looks even more concerning.
I had been hoping that the 10-year was just stuck in a range this year, between about 3.6% and 4.7%, but the more we zoom out we see a possible bull flag in the 10-year (red) and it recently broke out above that flag. Unfortunately, the upside target for this flag, should it play out, would be close to 6.0%.
The only way we get there is if either inflation gets out of control again, and / or the economy gets over heated and the Fed has to start raising interest rates. Neither sound too appealing, so let's hope this remains range-bound instead.
Again, DWCPF (S-fund) took the heat with the yields rising and if you compare the two charts, you can see they both changed direction in early December - opposite directions. There is overhead resistance at the 50-day EMA, which it has now closed below for four straight trading sessions, but there is also some solid support just under the recent lows. The bulls better put out some cookies and milk for the guy in the white beard today.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) was up 0.60% yesterday, and the I-fund was given a gain of 0.47%.
BND (bonds / F-fund) moved lower, filling in a small gap and the F-fund lost 0.29% in the process.
The stock market will be closing at 1 PM today, but the TSP will be processing transactions as usual, but of course both will be close on Wednesday for Christmas.
Thanks so much for reading! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! I will see you back here on Thursday.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
As promised, because I am writing this on Christmas night, and because the market cooperated with the seasonal calendar, I'm not going to add much to Tuesday's commentary, which I will leave below for anyone who missed it.
Thanks so much for stopping by, and I hope everyone is enjoying their holiday week! I will see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12/24/24
Stocks started the new week with a negative open, but they found their footing just after 10 AM ET, and from there the bulls took control. The Dow closed down compared to the large gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but the small caps couldn't keep up. We saw strength Treasury Yields and that not only held the F-fund back, but the S-fund had to battle back from a big morning loss, just to still close slightly negative on the day.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
As I mentioned on Monday, barring any major market episodes, I am going to try to make the commentaries brief for the next week or so to enjoy visiting with some family in town for the holidays and to take a much needed breather from the daily market grind. I have my plan in place for the rest of the year but I will pop in everyday to touch base. As always, thanks for reading!It was good, but not great for the S&P 500 yesterday. The bulls will take a 0.73% gain any day of the week, but once again, like on Friday, the rally stalled at the 20-day EMA, and yesterday it didn't quite hit Friday's high. That keeps the bulls on their toes for another day as things could roll back over here, but that's getting picky and we know that for the next two weeks the calendar will be modestly at the backs of the bulls, so I probably shouldn't be too pessimistic, although the chart says it needs that wind at its back to bust through resistance.
The volume spike on Friday was from the quadruple witching expiration day, but it should start drying up this week.
Some strength in the yields of the 10-Year Treasury Note gave the small caps a run for their money as they didn't even finish the day in positive territory. I'm crazy about the looks of this yield chart with the higher high, and the longer term chart below looks even more concerning.
I had been hoping that the 10-year was just stuck in a range this year, between about 3.6% and 4.7%, but the more we zoom out we see a possible bull flag in the 10-year (red) and it recently broke out above that flag. Unfortunately, the upside target for this flag, should it play out, would be close to 6.0%.
The only way we get there is if either inflation gets out of control again, and / or the economy gets over heated and the Fed has to start raising interest rates. Neither sound too appealing, so let's hope this remains range-bound instead.
Again, DWCPF (S-fund) took the heat with the yields rising and if you compare the two charts, you can see they both changed direction in early December - opposite directions. There is overhead resistance at the 50-day EMA, which it has now closed below for four straight trading sessions, but there is also some solid support just under the recent lows. The bulls better put out some cookies and milk for the guy in the white beard today.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) was up 0.60% yesterday, and the I-fund was given a gain of 0.47%.
BND (bonds / F-fund) moved lower, filling in a small gap and the F-fund lost 0.29% in the process.
The stock market will be closing at 1 PM today, but the TSP will be processing transactions as usual, but of course both will be close on Wednesday for Christmas.
Thanks so much for reading! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! I will see you back here on Thursday.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Last edited:
