Mike's Account Talk

[neirbod]

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Mike wrote:

...At the end of today, I will be 100 G.

I just did the same thing, going from 100 I to 100 G for Monday. I hate to think I may be missing out on part of a rally, but there are just too many uncertainties, and the market is too jittery, for me not to lock in my gains today. That being said, if there is a significant dip on Monday, I'll probably jump right back in.

Any idea why Saraho doesn't post anymore? I always appreciated her insights on the I fund and the dollar.

 

[Mike]

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She wasn't happywith how Tom dealt with the MT issue.

On an unrelated note, it appears the TSP gov site worked fine today. I got my request in very quickly.

 

[namor]

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MT wasn't the only issue.

She asked a member to stop treating her in a certain way, and nothing was done about it.

I don't blame her a bit for leaving.

 

[Guest]

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Mike wrote:

At the end of today, I will be 100 G.

Great smash and grab. This is all most like a relief rally on the job numbers. However, with the record M&As the future job reports numbers are not looking so bright. The dollar getting crushed/oil still over $53 is also some strong headwinds.

Great move. I hedged a good job report buy selling foreign currencies...that was freaking stupid. But your move was well planned.

 

[Guest]

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namor wrote:

MT wasn't the only issue.
She asked a member to stop treating her in a certain way, and nothing was done about it.
I don't blame her a bit for leaving.

I guess that just about makes it an all-male board again.



http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN

 

[grandma]

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W_W: I guess that just about makes it an all-male board again.



Good heavens, W_W!! Let's hope not !! They would be missing a great deal of forced introspection!!! I was hoping Saraho was on sabbatical - I do continue to look to see if you have added anything each day also -

Stay with us/me --grandma

 

[Guest]

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Just the facts ma'm....
I apologize Mike for usingyour Account Talk to f/u on this.

 

[vectorman]

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What do you think Mike? !10 minutes left, are you going to try another snatch and grab???

 

[Mike]

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With the dollar breaking down already, I'm not likely to make a play on the I fund ahead of the report due out Friday (unlikely to see much of a buying opportunity)... unless we see some sort of major reversal to the upside in the dollar tomorrow.

Depending on what the S&P does today/tomorrow, I may buy in and then promptly sell on Friday when the TSP money flows in. I'll play that one by ear, though. With today being down about as much as yesterday was up, we're falling back toward where we ended on Friday... which could be a sign that we are merely establishing another trading range (albeit at a higher level than before).

 

[Mike]

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S&P is dropping again... with that, I'm sticking to my guns and am going 100C today. TSP money is coming into the market tomorrow, and I suspect a few bargain hunters will start snapping up some shares. If not, I can always bail and cut my losses.

 

[vectorman]

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Mike wrote:

S&P is dropping again... with that, I'm sticking to my guns and am going 100C today. TSP money is coming into the market tomorrow, and I suspect a few bargain hunters will start snapping up some shares. If not, I can always bail and cut my losses.

Hi Mike,do you always go all or nothing? Do you sometimes diversify or hedge alittlein times of uncertainty? Thanks

 

[vectorman]

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vectorman wrote:

Mike wrote:

S&P is dropping again... with that, I'm sticking to my guns and am going 100C today. TSP money is coming into the market tomorrow, and I suspect a few bargain hunters will start snapping up some shares. If not, I can always bail and cut my losses.

Hi Mike,do you always go all or nothing? Do you sometimes diversify or hedge alittlein times of uncertainty? Thanks

Mike , if TSP money is coming in today and theS&P closes down, do you think Monday might be good for the C fund?

 

[Mike]

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I diversify at times, yes. The last move was 50C / 50I ahead of the jobs report.

This time, I was a day ahead... went in the day I saw red and thought the market would be down (but then it moved up a bit late), and yesterday, it just went down on oil and the trade report. Ugh.

We may see a bump monday... don't know, though. A lot is hinging on oil... if it doesn't start pulling back soon, we could be in real trouble. $55 oil does not sit well with the market - I know the reports are saying the trade imbalance is what caused the S&P drop on Friday, but I'm pretty darn sure it was oil's rise above $55 that did it...(though the two are a bit related, since the dollar dropped a bit which in turn helped push oil up).

How's that for a mish-mash of analysis?

Big news coming next week... stay tuned. :shock:

 

[Mike]

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Due to a number of factors that I won't bore people with here, I am switching my approach to asset allocation. I will only adjust this according to large-scale events, such as recessions / large scale terrorist attacks / major wars (not to diminish the significance of fighting in Iraq or Afghanistan, mind you - but I'm talking about conflicts that would likely disrupt the global economy, such as one with China over the Taiwan issue).

At any rate, this is the allocation I have settled on, effective COB Friday:

50 C
30 S
20 I

My contributions are set to match this as well.

If you see a new post by me in my account thread, you'll know that I believe something big is happening. Good luck, all.

 

[Mike]

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I just made it in before the cut-off.

I slashed all my equities holdings in half to 25 C / 15 S / 10 I.

My intuition is acting up right now... the Chicago manufacturing data came in much weaker than expected yesterday, triggering a minor sell-off. Today, the ISM data came in below expectations, confirming yesterday's Chicago data - and it's triggering a buying spree. I know that an article on the CNN site is saying that it's due to relief that the Fed will slow rate hikes... but I'm beginning to think the analysis in many of these articles is bogus. :shock:

Mainly, what I'm getting at here is I don't trust irrational investor behavior. Today's big move up could very well be "the herd" that Tom is alluding to. What that means is we are probably going to see a pullback very soon, and a formation of a new trading range. So, I have decided to get defensive. I'm not totally out of the market (and basically can't be due to where my Roth money is ), though - because we might have a few more days left in the rally. But the economic data is telling me the end of it may come sooner than later.

 

[Mike]

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I still have 25%C / 15% S... I sold my 10% I fund stake today.

I also moved 60% into the F fund. I think the payroll report will come in a bit under expectations, and that could spark a bond market rally.

 

[Mike]

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Indeed, the report came in under expectations - WAY under. :shock:

COB today:
60 F
40 G

I'm not messing around with a pullback looming.

 

[Mike]

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100 G at the end of today.

Maybe I'll be fortunate and the bond market will rally before the day's end - it's basically flat right now.

I'm still expecting a pullback to come shortly.

 

[mlk_man]

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Hey, get back here with my F!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[pyriel]

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Come on Mike, you said you hate the g fund... What the F?