Market Talk

[smine]

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and Spaf, all that means what? did you move, stay, change anything?

 

[Spaf]

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Smine - My allocations are holding at G=10, F=10, C=40, S=40. I'm just happy that oil is going down to somewhere below the roof. Nov. Dec. Jan. should be good months. I'm really tired of this choppy, cyclic bearish season we have been in. We had a higher low. Now we need for the market to firm up, and start being a bull. If oil will just step aside. Sometimes what I want and what I get are two different things. I'v got my fingers crossed for good times! They just have to happen!

 

[Guest]

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Spaf wrote:

I feel that this AM and maybe today is the quiet period where the market firms up.
A maybe, cus I haven't played The Dow Theory out before.

But, my Bear/Bull meter is in a good range at 1125.

|-----------------Bears 1060.............^...1140 Bulls---------------|

Oil is under $52. and China may have less demands if their interest rates go up.
Maybe the bear market is out, maybe! Still need more factors to fall in place. But here's hoping!

Good point about China and the oil demands Spaf :^. I didn't even think about that...:'

 

[Guest]

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Good point about China and the oil demands Spaf :^. I didn't even think about that...:'

Polly wanna cracker!!! RRRRRRRAH!



I'm following your animal theme.

 

[Guest]

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tsptakedown wrote:

Good point about China and the oil demands Spaf :^. I didn't even think about that...:'

Polly wanna cracker!!! RRRRRRRAH!



I'm following your animal theme.

Isn't it great to have fans? Childish fan, but hey, still a fan..............:shock:

Raise your hand if you think it's MarketTimer...I really doubt I''m good enough to have TWO fans!

*raising hand*

 

[Guest]

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mlk_man wrote:

tsptakedown wrote:

Good point about China and the oil demands Spaf :^. I didn't even think about that...:'

Polly wanna cracker!!! RRRRRRRAH!



I'm following your animal theme.

Isn't it great to have fans? Childish fan, but hey, still a fan..............:shock:

Raise your hand if you think it's MarketTimer...I really doubt I''m good enough to have TWO fans!

*raising hand*

Sorry everyone, from now on I will try to "reply" to MT or TTP or Harley or whatever he chooses to call himself in my own account. I think it's rude to post personal attacks in someone else's tread.

Why not do the same TTD. Be "nice" for a change......................

 

[Guest]

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I'm thinking of possibly moving a little off the table for the weekend. Currently still

15%-G, 10%-C, 75%-S. this dog is still perfoming good tricks (but for how long), today still looks, hope this plays out until the end.

 

[Dakota]

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today the dog bit the s fund was not pretty I will be 33c 34s 33i good luck ya'll

 

[ou81200]

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I pulled out of the S fund today before noon and went 100% G. I think I will stay there untill after the election. There's too much uncertainty going on for me.:*



Any inputs???

 

[coolhand]

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Even the analysts are divided on what may happen in this market. In my opinion it's never a bad call to take your chips off the table while you are ahead and uncertainty reigns. GDP numbers out tomorrow. If they exceed expectations the bulls may take off again. Oil on the other hand is still unpredictable. With China trying to cool off their market some analysts think it may serve to lower oil consumption down the road. Tough call.

I am 65% G and 35% C and can't pull the trigger. I too am waiting for the elections.

 

[Mike]

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China's economy has been growing at a whopping 9%. That is an unsustainable growth rate. Inflation and/or speculation will begin to take hold (if they haven't already), and that'll serve to naturally put the brakes on that economy.

S-fund only dropped 2 cents today, which was offset by the C going up 2 cents. I-fund shot up 10 cents and is now pushing $14 - makes me wish I kept my 1/3 allocation over there longer. :shock:

 

[Spaf]

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I've attached a chart of the S&P 500 for one year.

It appears that we are in the critical period of possibly breaking the bearish trend of 2004. Note ? gap on chart, if the market can continue the advance through 1050-1060 we should have a bull market, a big if! It may not have the strength of the 2003-4 market. However, it will be an improvement. If certain factors (oil, reports, etc.) will give some slack, we could have some good market weather.


The possibles are there. Will the market do it, that's the question. I hope it will!

Careful! Spaf

 

[FundSurfer]

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I did the same took refuge in G as of yesterday. S is up 2.2% since Monday and C is up 3%. I can't help but think there will be some profit taking and there is the uncertainty of the upcomming elections plus you got the insurgents in Iraq likely to try to make a statement before our elections....

Sitting on the sidelines seems like the better choice. I see more risk in the market right now.

 

[Spaf]

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FundSurfer- You could be right. The market had a direction, but is now mulling over mixed data. I will be transfer to a more conservative holdingthis AM at 50%G, 20%C, 20%S, 10%I The 20D MA and P-SAR are a buy, so I will stay in some stocks.

 

[coolhand]

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My feelings exactly. I'm thinkingofmoving30% of my G fund holdings ($5K) into the "C" fund on the chance the market maymove higher after the elections. I'll decide on Monday morning. That's as much risk as I'm willing to take. Let you know Monday whether I did or not.

 

[learning]

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I am thinking about uping my S fund on the day ofthe election. That is if nothing by 11:00 hours goes wrong. By the end of November I want to be at least 50% - 100% S fund. I believe we will have a Santa Clause Rally. That is if the terrorist do not hit us or oil goes through the roof.

 

[Spaf]

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Thursday and Friday may have been the quiet period for the market to firm up. It could be set to advance next week. If it advances through the previous peak of 1142.05 of Oct. 5, then a bull market could be confirmed. 1142 might not be the exact number, but it should be between 1142-1163; remembering the past bull market of 2003-4peaked out at 1163.23.
Conversely, if the market, for reasons, cannot advance past 1142, then we will have to wait for a new day.
If the bull market is established, then is the period of the longest and largest advances in prices.
On Friday the 29th.the S&P 500 closed at 1130.20, we have12 or more points to go before we can say the bull market is back. So close, and yet so far. Hopefully the market will get there and advance upward. In the mean time I will remain conservatively optimisticwith allocations at G:50, F:0, C:20, S:20, I:10.

Price/share wise the TSP funds closed out for October as:

1-29 Oct: G=+.04 F=+.12 C=0 S=+.04 I=+.35

Rgrds and be careful! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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Next week's action: up, up, and away!

This could be the biggest money-making move of my life, or it could be another in a growing line of flubs. Stay tuned. :^

 

[Spaf]

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Mike - Kind of covering all the bases arn't ya :l!

 

[Mike]

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What I meant to say was:

The market will either go up, up, and away...

OR

My money will simply go away.