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Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
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A choppy market!
The market is being pulled in different directions, but trending downward in another yet bearish cycle. This cycle seems to be more volitile then the previous. In sentiment: oil prices are higher, closing Friday at $55.17, there is election uncertainity, and lackluster economic reports. Stats for the C, S, and I funds do not have longbuy signals within both the 20D MA and the P-SAR (I = ??). Indicators do not show a buy or break out trend. An example of uncertain/choppy conditions, using the S&P: Mon=Up, Tues=Dn, Wed=Up, Thur=Up, and Fri=Dn. The week started at 1114 and ended at 1096. See attached chart!
Current allocations holding at: 90% G, and 10% F.

Careful! ;) Spaf
 
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Cont'd
My bull bear meter: Bear 1060........^........1140 Bull is at 1096 or half way.
According to what I've read (Thanks LK! for the News Letter), 2005 may be a low gainer year. However a rally should be near for the end of 2004 (a definite maybe).

Feelings are that mutual fund managers shift to buying and cash flow increases after October 31. Thats a week away! The week of November 1st maybe good flying for a while.

Worth watching and worth talking about? :) Spaf
 
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I'm up 0.6% this year, so you know how much (little) my advice is worth. :D

Of course, this percentage swings quite wildly with the market chop combined with my low balance, so I could go from looking like an idiot to looking like a genius in about two weeks' time in these cycles. :shock:

One of these days, I'll devise a system (aside from the current uttering of profanity every time the market cycles back down again). I think it'll involve a blindfold and copious amounts of alcohol each time I make a transfer.
 
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Mike - Any plan is better than no plan. You can always modify your plan later!
;)
 
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How about this:

Upcoming transfers:

1st) Vodka
2nd) Rum
3rd) Schnapps

If any of the above fail to generate a profit, perhaps a mixture of the three is in order. Plus I could always sue the maker of the blindfold and the alcohol producers for bad market advice. :D
 
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Can anyone explain how the S fund went up today when the market was down. I was pleasantly surprised, but dumbfounded. Thanks
 
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Yeah that's why I almost quit looking at the yahoo chart! I just figured I had not mastered the art of chart viewing and stocks rising/lowering!!! I was getting confused....so I just leave it in C, S, I and sometimes G.
 
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ou81200 wrote:
Can anyone explain how the S fund went up today when the market was down. I was pleasantly surprised, but dumbfounded. Thanks
Small caps did well today. I think a few small company earnings reports came out today.
 
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OU - The index for the Wilshire 4500 closed slightly up. Some items of the market were up, some down.

From October 1st to today (Oct. 25) the share prices for TSP funds have been:
G = +0.03, F = +0.13, C = -0.38, S = -0.25, I = +0.06

Since late September through October, the C,S,I funds have been giving fluctuating readings within the parabolic SAR signals, due to market volitility to otherwise notindicate a clear buy or sell. However, in looking at the big picture (using S&P) the current market is in a downward cycle, and the market since Feburary continues to be bearish.Where this current cycle will break is now the big question for timing.

Any opinions???
 
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I'm not a stock guru, but I'll give my opinion.



The bearish cycle we're currently in is founded on three things.

1. Oil prices

2. Coming elections

3. This weeks earning reports.

As for oil prices, the price has been going up for a while now so this may have allready been factored in share prices. Even with the price of oil over 54 Dollars a barrel, transportation, homebuilding, and utilities showed relative strength (MSN Money).

Coming Elections----Late last week, CNN showed Bush and Kerry at 48% each. I'm sure that has changed by now, but it's still close. this uncertainty is reflected with the way the market is going. I believe after the elections, the short term will be favorable for the C and S fund.

This weeks earnings. Well this weeks earnings-----Well they STUNK!!! Nuff said on that.

Well that's it on my opinion :).
 
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Well I can't argue with any of that. The good news, I believe, is that the market is hanging tough despite of all of this bad news. I have been pounding the bullish table for several months now with not much movement either way actually. The bears can't be happy (we're up 3% from the lows) and the bulls are getting frustrated (down 4% from recent highs). We are still consolidating. Short termers might play the chop, longer termers have to pick a side. I'm still bullish looking forward. :)
 
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3rd quarter earnings were mostly pretty good. What's weighing on the market is the projected earnings for the 4th quarter - many companies are revising these downward.

Oil prices and the upcoming election are certainly hurting us at the moment.
 
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I was not expecting the oil to do as it has. This has me worried. When the oil comes down or looks like it, I may put more into theS fund. That seems to make the big up moves while not taking some of the biggest hits.

The Election will help bring order to the market when it is over. As long as they do not fight again over who won.

As for me, in this market I feel like a rabit running scarred in the center of a pack of wolves:end:.

Looking forward to the Santa Clause Ralley:^
 
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ou81200 wrote:
Can anyone explain how the S fund went up today when the market was down. I was pleasantly surprised, but dumbfounded. Thanks
Large caps are getting their revenge today so far.
 
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ou81200 wrote:
I'm not a stock guru, but I'll give my opinion.



The bearish cycle we're currently in is founded on three things.

1. Oil prices

2. Coming elections

3. This weeks earning reports.

As for oil prices, the price has been going up for a while now so this may have allready been factored in share prices. Even with the price of oil over 54 Dollars a barrel, transportation, homebuilding, and utilities showed relative strength (MSN Money).

Coming Elections----Late last week, CNN showed Bush and Kerry at 48% each. I'm sure that has changed by now, but it's still close. this uncertainty is reflected with the way the market is going. I believe after the elections, the short term will be favorable for the C and S fund.

This weeks earnings. Well this weeks earnings-----Well they STUNK!!! Nuff said on that.

Well that's it on my opinion :).
Hmmmm, guess we all now how "liberal" CNN is right?..............
 
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curently 25g25f 25c 25s as of wednesday 25g 25c 50s I is too scary right now. will be watching good luck ya'll
 
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Tuesday the 26th. A rally from the insurance stock :). My stats could change positive, if the rally keeps the upswing. Tom's seasonality chart indicates that Thursday, Friday and Monday to be good days in the market. Sentiment amoung members appears to be good. I guess it's time I changed my allocation effective COB Wednesday: Will go 10% G, 10% F, 40% C, and 40% S, pending a favorable AM market, otherwise I'll cancel. Drat that 1 day delay.

Attached is the S&P chart as of the 26th. Note the possible turn around of 20D MA and P-SAR. This is like chasing a possum up a tree, sometimes you have to go for it. I guess by 10:30 AMtomorrow I'll know if it is a possum or a bear up that tree :u!

Be careful!
 
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ou81200 wrote:
Tom---

I think your rally came a day early :!.
And it was large caps as they didmake the attempt to catch up to the small caps. As I mentioned in Monday's comments, I thought about making the change to the C fund, but didn't pull the trigger. Nice volume too.
 
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