Market Talk

[ou81200]

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Any green day is a good day.

 

[Spaf]

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S&PInformation at Yahoo
The 3 mo tech chart at yahoo is stuck on October 19 using symbol ^GSPC. However the same index can be brought up using symbol ^SPX and that tech chart is current.

 

[Mike]

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I don't look quite as stupid for having 50% in C now. Hooray!

 

[Spaf]

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Mike - :^good for you!

 

[Rod]

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OK, we BEST go ahead and bank yesterday's and today's gainsin the G FUND now while we still have time.

 

[smine]

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Agreed. That's your new plan anyhow, Rod, 100G.

 

[puertorico]

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I'M FOLLOWING U rOd :^

I heard u smine



100-G DONE ...

 

[Guest]

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I'm staying put....15% C-75% S...want this dog to perform for daddy.

 

[smine]

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Everytime I do that I kick myself when it drops! So, I promised myself if it went up big time (and it seems to be doing just that today) I was gonna move to safety! One hr 49 minutes to go.....up, up and away, then to G. Rod may have hit on a plan that I can live with.

 

[ou81200]

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Something said for me to do the same. I think I will say in the S fund one more day :?.

I will probably kick myself in the rump for this.

 

[Rod]

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On average when there are 2 great days in a row, the 3rd is usually a downer... especially when that 3rd day falls on a Thursday. I'm not saying this is always, but I'm not taking any chances. Besides, I need to stick with my system UNLESS I have avery good reason to deviate.

God Bless:^

 

[Spaf]

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We have had 2 good up days......... and check your oil. Down <$53. This could be the change into a bull market period for the months ahead (fingers crossed). I know that Tom has been looking for it since July. Right now we don't have enough facts. What we are looking for is this:


In the first stage of a bull market, stocks begin to find a bottom and quietly firm up. When the market starts to rise, there is widespread disbelief that a bull market has begun. After the first leg peaks and starts to head back down, the bears come out proclaiming that the bear market is not over. It is at this stage that careful analysis is warranted to determine if the decline is a secondary movement (a correction of the first leg up). If it is a secondary move, then the low forms above the previous low, a quiet period will ensue as the market firms and then an advance will begin. When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed.


I am tired of these rally cycles in the bear market, I want the other market back!

 

[Rod]

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Well, if there's going to be a prolonged rally I don't see it happening until after the election.

 

[coolhand]

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It would seem oil really is driving this market. All it took was for inventory levels to come in above analyst expectations and the market took off. Opec's comments that the US should release some of its reserves was rather interesting. They have been saying they would increase production to alleviate the high price, but this comment seems to indicate they may not have the capacity to do so. Maybe that's one of the reasons the bond market has been so strong. They don't believe it.

At this point, we'll just have to keep an eye on oil and see if it really is the beginning of a trend to the downside. I'm not holding my breath just yet.

Lots of pent up frustration being released. The election next week should help.

Currently 65% G, 35% C and waiting to make a move.

 

[Spaf]

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Coolhand - What you are saying is my point of consideration. August lower low was at 1060. The October higher low was at 1090. If oil ceases to be a "market problem" this may (I say may) be the start of a bull market. If it fits the requirements of the Dow Theory I stated previously. Bears have rallys, Bulls have corrections. I don't want it to be a rally, I want the real thing. I want the beef!

 

[coolhand]

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I agree with you completely...just wanted to add somemore perspective. If oil ceases to be a concern, companies can expect to realize more profit as they are not being saddled with increased energy costs. The bulls will take off.For the most part I think the US economy is weathering this problem well (short term anyway). However, if oil continues to be a problem over the long haul, it will affectsome of the more fragile economies around the globe first. That will have a ripple effect. I have been watching for any signs of instability in these markets, but it doesn't appear to have taken too much of a toll as yet.

Also, watch the bond market. When those gurusstart to believe financial conditions favorequitiesthere will be a stampede. So far, they are acting contrary tothe conditions of the market. There's an awful lot of money sitting on the sidelines (bonds, money markets, under mattresses). The trick is getting in before they do. I expect to make a move any day now, but I have a waryeye on oil in particular.

You're right about wanting the old market back. This one is a lot of work (guess work).

 

[Spaf]

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The bearish rally's are taking the toll on me. There is no reason for not having a bull market if the oil problem can't be solved. I am tired of chasing these bearish rally's! There is nothing wrong with with the economy thet removing the oil factor would not produce a bull market. My opinion!
Current Allocations: G=10%. F=10%. C=40%, S=40%, I=0%.

careful! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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It's late at night, and once again I'm posting after a big up day. :^

2004 highs: $12.15 C fund, $13.51 S fund,$13.85 I fund.

Recent "minor" highs (Oct 6th): C $12.12, S $13.31

Today's prices: $11.95 (C), $13.24 (S), $13.85 (I).

We're one more up day away from the point where we really need to get excited.

 

[TheProphet]

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I am on the black... in green territory... I will move to 100% G Fund for the weekend prior to election (terrorist attack over the weekend isalways a possibility)...election day, interest rate increase... winter oil prices etc... too smokey...I belief the market is on BULLISH trend... but I rather stay on 100% G Fundfor few days see results and way for clear air...too smoky now...need more clear air...

 

[Spaf]

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I feel that this AM and maybe today is the quiet period where the market firms up.
A maybe, cus I haven't played The Dow Theory out before.

But, my Bear/Bull meter is in a good range at 1125.

|-----------------Bears 1060.............^...1140 Bulls---------------|

Oil is under $52. and China may have less demands if their interest rates go up.
Maybe the bear market is out, maybe! Still need more factors to fall in place. But here's hoping!