Market Talk

[Mike]

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Haha that was a good one.

Correction: I had 15% in the I fund, not 20. In any case, I've put in the request to move it to G. I'll now be 30% G, which is very "G heavy" for me. I'll definitely be watching the markets closely for a buying opportunity now.

I'm approaching a six-day off stretch - once I get there, I'll do some sort of comprehensive study of the three stock funds in Thrift and see if I can find any trends... ah, that should be fun reading. :shock:

 

[Spaf]

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Early morning market check........ Starting off again in the basement. I was going to hopefully transfer and still play some of the stocks, lightly. No such stats or sentiment. No emotions or gambling: going 100% G fund. As Tom has said "That whipsaw effect can be demoralizing". The deep ups and downs recently are volatility, not trends. Currently the market exceeds my risk tolerance (too bumpy). There will be better days.

 

[learning]

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Question asked:

Question for anyone. Right now I have the maximum deductions coming out for the TSP fund. This comes out to about 250 dollars every two weeks. This does not include the matching amount. After building the account to let's say 100,000 dollars, would it still be advantagious to keep the maximum deductions going in.

My Two cents:

That is a good question. For me it is not how much money I have in the account but how much I have to invest. FIRST YOU MUST AT LEAST DO THE MATCHING AMOUNT. The second part is up to you. Perhaps, you may not want to max in the TSP. Instead you might want to put into a ROTH account.This way when you retire you will not have to pay taxes on it.(It may be better to pay taxes know versus later. Perhaps later is when you want to pay the taxes. That depends on where you are and where you believe you will be when you retire.)

I would suggest having money else where.If you can max the TSP and put money in elsewhere, hay great. Do it. If not, perhaps you want to put money in another area.

OneThing for me is I don't depened on any goverment retirement. It will be TSP and my retirement savings. If the goverment gives me some extra money else where, hay great.Youknow social security. I suspect a low means test or something will hit by the time I retire.

I'm just learing and there are betterpeople then I out there. This is only something to think about. Take itup with a"pro", is my final thought.:iThey will know where you are in life. We do not.

 

[cowboy]

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learning wrote:

Question asked:

Question for anyone. Right now I have the maximum deductions coming out for the TSP fund. This comes out to about 250 dollars every two weeks. This does not include the matching amount. After building the account to let's say 100,000 dollars, would it still be advantagious to keep the maximum deductions going in.

My Two cents:

That is a good question. For me it is not how much money I have in the account but how much I have to invest. FIRST YOU MUST AT LEAST DO THE MATCHING AMOUNT. The second part is up to you. Perhaps, you may not want to max in the TSP. Instead you might want to put into a ROTH account.This way when you retire you will not have to pay taxes on it. (It may be better to pay taxes know versus later. Perhaps later is when you want to pay the taxes. That depends on where you are and where you believe you will be when you retire.)

I would suggest having money else where.If you can max the TSP and put money in elsewhere, hay great. Do it. If not, perhaps you want to put money in another area.

OneThing for me is I don't depened on any goverment retirement. It will be TSP and my retirement savings. If the goverment gives me some extra money else where, hay great.Youknow social security. I suspect a low means test or something will hit by the time I retire.

I'm just learing and there are betterpeople then I out there. This is only something to think about. Take itup with a"pro", is my final thought.:iThey will know where you are in life. We do not.

Sounds like your thinking things thru. My Question is what is your definition of a "pro". If it's someone your willing to pay $250 every two weeks for the next two months I can be a "pro". The advantage of being the "pro" is you'll wait 30 years to find out if I'm wrong or not! My thought is there is no "pro's" what you may think is right today may be wrong tomorrow just like the stock market but if your willing to part with money I'm willing to listen.

 

[Spaf]

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Learning
Two books I liked: "Financial Freedom" (Suze Orman) and Mutual Funds for Dummies. TSP has options on retirement, one is a transfer toa Traditional IRA. You can withdraw 4% annually, and it should grow in retirement. You need other funds for emergencies i.e., 6 mo salary / 20K (min) in liquid assets (Money Mkt, mutuals, etc). Property investments (home, rentals) also good, but the money is not readily accessible. Married? 2 salaries, inheritances, all other factors you have to consider for your self. Have a good day Learning!

 

[Spaf]

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Cowboy
Your right, got to be careful of those "Pros" Wasn't it them that advocated technology stock back in the bubble years? A co-worker is paying $300 a quarter, by appointment. We are in the wrong business.

Well if TSP will ever give me a reading I should be 100% G. Hope they got the transfer! Tom posted 4 issues in Current market and fund comments. Kind of reinforces my transfer decision. Also, the current market looks like the prior bearish cycles. I want to see a good trend. Too many clouds for me, don't want to fly into a mountain.

 

[smine]

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Did I see that right???? The I fund -0.21? My God, why don't we put in a sieve to sift our money out of our pocket. Glad I only had 25% but 50%?? Jesus. Can we get a conservative, money saving strategy out there? Please. Gain a little, lose a little, gain a little, lose some more. Thank God I get paid to replenish this fund!

 

[Spaf]

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Smine
The European market didn't like the oil problems. We also had 2 prior days of steep losses on the S&P. The market is volatile. It has gone through 3 bearish cycles in Q2 and Q3. Maybe another cycle is in the making. The conditions that make the cycles have not been broken (in my opinion). There is no cushion for oil. It broke through $54 today, and closed lower. The market picture was an inverse proportional picture of the oil. I feel that we would have a fairly good market if it wasn't for the oil problems.
This year I had a good garden crop going, but a couple of goffers got in there and ruined it. Oil and goffers!!!

 

[Mike]

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I can't believe it- I actually made a properread on the I fund. Surely, the end is coming... :shock:

 

[TheProphet]

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I am not sure if a charitable trust will be the best way yet...

Any one knows about it ?

 

[TheProphet]

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keep it to the maximum as long as you can... it is tax deferred and help you to build your capital base even bigger... :^

 

[TheProphet]

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Dollar is too weak... but till when ? I do not think they going to give Dollars away for free in the streets of London, Paris, Tokio, Berlin... But very shor term... and if the oil continue going up and the dollar down... The I Fund is very attactive...

 

[Spaf]

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Mixed market reports with recent losses. Appears C and S fund crested 10-6 at 12.12 and 13.31 respectively. TheI fund lasted a few more days peaking on 10-8 at 13.79. Is the market catching it's breath, or do we have another cycle in the making? Will be in the hanger, watching and waiting!

I noticed this comment about the market "The market can't break out on the upside because of concerns about earnings and where the economy is going."

 

[cowboy]

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It's possibly in the hanger but I'm going to be 100% I fund just to make sure it keeps going! Nothing Like losing money!

 

[TheProphet]

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PATIENCE IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE ! I do not take loses... the market will turn around if I stay long enough... next time I will wait till it goes lower and will get out early... now nothing I can do just wait with patience.... :zz

 

[Spaf]

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LK
My system says out! Those were some big red candlesticks recently (now). The cycle appears to be back. Nowthe question is, what floor is it going to stop on?

 

[Mike]

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I'm always mostly invested just in case a rally develops and catches me off-guard. I'm actually somewhat appreciative of the recent downward action, because I have 30% in G waiting to pounce (plus I think we'll get the penny gain tomorrow).

 

[Spaf]

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Some of the market sentiment was expressed as:
"You've got energy stocks down, commodities stocks down, oil spiking again in late afternoon trade -- all of those things are causing downward pressure on the market," There is a concern about winter heating oil supplies, and the price of oil closed at $53.64
Stat wise:
The market pricing has declined below the 20 day moving average, and the parabolic SAR has signaled a reverse into possibly another cycle like we have been experiencing most of the year. How deep will this cycle be, only the market knows.
Allocations:
Right now I am 100% G-fund. However, I have a transfer pending to 90% G, and 10% F. The F fund allows for a little taxi time outside the hanger.

 

[Mike]

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We'll know soon whether or not this is short-lived.

It'll be also be another opportunity to assess the usefulness of seasonality charts.

 

[Spaf]

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Mike
Notice how volatile the market pricing was in late Sept. /early Oct. Short lived ? All depends, since we have safe funds why take the chance of a deep decline like in July. Seasonality charts are good if the same factors are relevant that molded the charts to start with. The economy, rates, profits, oil, allmake up different factors, it's not a one size fits all.