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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
T
TheProphet
Guest
imported post
I already vote my friend... :^ I am a cool guy... :zzHave a Super Great Day... :^
I already vote my friend... :^ I am a cool guy... :zzHave a Super Great Day... :^
Mike
Active member
imported post
If you assume the business cycle to be roughly 10 years, this is what we've had:
2001/02 - recession - Bush took office January 20th, thus "inheriting a recession".
1991/92 - recession - this ended in early 1992 but by then, voter sentiment was set and Bushlost because of it.
1981/82 - recession - Reagan inherited this one.
So, we've had the last three recessions under Republican presidents. As long as the business cycle is a fact of our economic life, whoever is president in 2011-12 will get the next one. It's inescapable. The only thing these guys can do is try to speed up the recovery / make the recession milder. Beyond that, they can't really *prevent* one. As economies grow rapidly, more people make more money and make more speculative (read: risky or stupid) investments. As more of these investments fail, it inevitably reaches a breaking point where overall economic growth slows and then declines for a time (thus putting the brakes on speculative investment). This is when the more reliable investment takes over and growth resumes. Certainly, there are external shocks involved, such as terrorism, oil problems, etc - but in the grand scheme of things, the business cycle is fairly predictable.
If you assume the business cycle to be roughly 10 years, this is what we've had:
2001/02 - recession - Bush took office January 20th, thus "inheriting a recession".
1991/92 - recession - this ended in early 1992 but by then, voter sentiment was set and Bushlost because of it.
1981/82 - recession - Reagan inherited this one.
So, we've had the last three recessions under Republican presidents. As long as the business cycle is a fact of our economic life, whoever is president in 2011-12 will get the next one. It's inescapable. The only thing these guys can do is try to speed up the recovery / make the recession milder. Beyond that, they can't really *prevent* one. As economies grow rapidly, more people make more money and make more speculative (read: risky or stupid) investments. As more of these investments fail, it inevitably reaches a breaking point where overall economic growth slows and then declines for a time (thus putting the brakes on speculative investment). This is when the more reliable investment takes over and growth resumes. Certainly, there are external shocks involved, such as terrorism, oil problems, etc - but in the grand scheme of things, the business cycle is fairly predictable.
imported post
LOL!
I guess I opened a can of worms! I got to agree with you Mike that the recessions run in cycles. Thats why Ithink who's President is not going to make much difference to the market.
It's a great nation we have here, that we can express our opinions because I believe that for every action there has to be a cause and an effect. Sooner or later we have to realize that we won't have it if we bleed it to death.
LOL!
I guess I opened a can of worms! I got to agree with you Mike that the recessions run in cycles. Thats why Ithink who's President is not going to make much difference to the market.It's a great nation we have here, that we can express our opinions because I believe that for every action there has to be a cause and an effect. Sooner or later we have to realize that we won't have it if we bleed it to death.
T
TheProphet
Guest
imported post
If I look the market history since the 30's 40's 50's...2000's... the market always comeback up... I take no looses !!! It is my rule !!! ONLY PROFITS !!!I may go for the ride for awhile... But I always come out of the market with a BIG SMILE !!! :u
Leon :^
If I look the market history since the 30's 40's 50's...2000's... the market always comeback up... I take no looses !!! It is my rule !!! ONLY PROFITS !!!I may go for the ride for awhile... But I always come out of the market with a BIG SMILE !!! :u
Leon :^
