Market Talk

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been in the C....kinda heavy;)



Spaf wrote:
teknobucks wrote:
HEY......where is everyone on this board?????
Where U at Tekno?

Am sitting on 50C, 50S.&^%$ the I=fund!

Hey, we been waiting for the good news, we got it, so lets tag along!
If the money flow continues, why jump ship?

I like that $BPSPX at stockcharts. Kind of gives a heads up!

Take care my friend! :) Spaf
 
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hehehehehe>>>>>>:P

Oil Futures Stay Near $47 a Barrel Mark




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thu May 19 05:51:18 2005 EST

VIENNA, Austria, May 19, 2005 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Oil futures stayed close
to the US$47 mark Thursday, with prices held down by U.S. petroleum inventory
data showing more strong growth in crude stocks.

The market was sobered by the U.S. Department of Energy figures that revealed a
build of 334 million barrels in the week ending May 13 from the previous week -
the 13th increase in the past 14 weeks - up 34 million barrels from a year ago.
The total crude inventory figure was the highest since May 1999, Dow Jones
Newswires said.

After dipping briefly below US$47 overnight, light, sweet crude for June was up
5 cents in Europe by late morning at US$47.30 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The contract had fallen US$1.72 on Wednesday following the
release of the stocks report.

The overall inventory report was mixed, however, with oil products building at a
slower clip than anticipated.

Gasoline stocks rose by 1.1 million barrels to 214.8 million barrels, heating
oil stocks rose by 200,000 barrels to 38.1 million. Meanwhile, distillates fell
200,000 barrels to 103.8 million.

Unleaded gasoline was down by less then half a cent at US$1.4115 a gallon (3.8
liters), while heating oil was up by less then a cent at US$1.3633 a gallon.

Energy Security Analysis Inc.'s Rick Mueller said gasoline supplies rose
primarily because of higher refinery output and imports, adding: "Demand will
return in strength ... as retailers ensure their tanks are full in time for the
traditional end-of-May start of the summer driving season."

The Energy Department said U.S. refiners ran at 94.0 percent capacity, up from
91.8 percent a week ago. With refiners approaching peak capacity, analysts worry
that the facilities may not be able to cope when demand - especially for
gasoline - rises in summer.

"What are we going to do when demand gets stronger?" asked Alaron Futures and
Trading analyst Phil Flynn.

There are also worries about possible refinery outages when production of
heating oil is ramped up ahead of the Northern Hemisphere's next winter.

But chief analyst Ehsan Ul-Haq of PVM Oil Associates in Vienna said that - for
now - less-than-expected appetite for gasoline would likely keep prices in
check.

"Gasoline demand in the U.S. ... is strong, but not as strong as expected
previously," he said. "People are thinking twice before buying a new SUV, and
people are driving less because of higher prices,"

Additionally, he said prices are being weighed down by Saudi determination "to
send as much oil as possible before the second half of the year," which is
traditionally a period of higher demand.

Recent data from Washington and the Paris-based International Energy Agency
appears to back comments from OPEC oil ministers who repeatedly say that markets
are well-supplied. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is already
pumping at full-tilt, at nearly 30 million barrels daily, to steady prices and
calm fears about the group's excess capacity.

"The market is well supplied, we are not in agreement with putting more barrels
on the market," Venezuelan oil minister Rafael Ramirez said Wednesday.

Venezuela, the fifth-largest oil exporter, has consistently defended high prices
within OPEC, which supplies 40 percent of world crude.

But PVM forecast higher demand in the second half of the year, in part because
of China's hunger for crude and oil products.

April data showing a 23 percent increase in crude imports by China over the year
defies "recent statements that demand growth (there) is slowing much faster than
anticipated," the report said.
 
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headsup0426.gif
 
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that last one should make the bears happy.....LOL

do expect a nice drop today...still holding long in C

tekno:dude:
 
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Ah yes....some will go with the flow and some will read the fine print.....check this out and see how much the market manipulated yesterdays CPI news......

http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1116511173.php

Maybe Ifelt that something was going wrong yesterday.....:?...

Still holding in a safe position......risk is still very high...:^

Pyreil, Tom, have I see some childish immaturity on this board lately???? It sure seems to be ...lets say..... fragmental.....

:dude:
 
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Whats immediately next...

For the last several weeks I had an upper bound of 1191 showing up as a possibility...;)

Due torecent market news it wasn't apparent we were going to make it there.....core CPI has been construed as a positive, while overall CPI is negative.....meaning more market manipulation at hand...andrisks are still high..:?

Looks like we are hitting resistance at this level.....bottom line is still 60 points down.....and won't move for two weeks....debate is.... what is the next drop going to bring us down to....???:%

If we drop and hold above the 1130's line, then I'd say we will make a sufficient rebound....:^

Currentmarket impulses have been sufficient in the positive....while minor in the negative....:)

I'm leaning towards the 1160's myself in the immediate future, but it sometimes enter in you mind a continued runup could happen........any comments????

:dude:
 
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Good morning Technician! Tekno!

Am back home now with my super fast dial up service. A blazing 28.8 at best! I took me an hour to read the comments last night.

I didn't realize how long it takes to load the yahoo finance charts for the funds and all the other items using dial-up. I don't know how many members are using dial-up or don't have access to high speed internet service. Maybe I'll Leave a note for Tom!

Anyway, U all have a great day! Regards! :) Spaf
 
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The Technician,

Yes I have a question-do you know where I can get a good used parachute in case I panic and have to bail from my rocket ship? In my younger days I only had to worry about how tall the elephant grass was-now I have to worry anout 60 points down-that could definitely be detrimental to my portfolio.C'mon let the good times roll.
 
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The EAFE is hitting against major overhead resistence that it has to break through. The markets have had a great three days. Over all the markets had been in a downward trend since the first week of March. April 28 could have been a bottom. Butthere are those who areweary;with their finger on the trigger just waiting to pull the trigger and lock inalittle gain from the last three days.TheSP500 and small caps may finish slightly up to flattoday, but between 2 to 4 there may be some profit taking from those not wanting to trust what Friday may bring. I'm hoping against hope for the I fund, but a think it needs some more help. It really needs to break through that overhead resistence (see the EAFE chart above) ,I hoping it does, if not today maybe tomorrow if the U.S. markets don't fall some. My disclaimer- Don't follow me!!!
 
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Have been watching the CMF (money flow) indicator on the S&P 500, that is $SPX at stockcharts.com.

There is a lot of investors making that indicator look like a rocket ship!

Wow! Rgds :) Spaf
 
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Maybe I should clarify things a bit more....:^

I'm not totally convinced yet that the S&P market isn't going to fail....we will see on the next downer .....but....

I've got data that says in the near term we should expect 1150-1160 as a resistance level in the next couple of days.......in the past particulary around this time of yearin 2000 (I mentioned yesterday that we may be mirroring that time period) we had 60 point swings....which seems to show up again as a longer term bottom line....1130's on the markets recent pastdata...

I'm figuring 60 points swings without any new highs above 1229 thru the summer (due to some other info ...if we hold up here).......:)....great environment for moneymaking.....then the market will take a real look at the inflation as a detriment......

Does anybody else have info that may say something else may happen.....????

:dude:
 
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Spaf,

Ssshhh, did you mention the word rocket ship? You know very well there isn't that much room available. It could be like 1973 Saigon all over again.
 
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Don't fight the fed.

We are at a point of the rate rising cycle were stocks do not fare well.

Trend carefully.

Enjoy the rallies while they last and do not get greedy.

:D
 
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DMA,

I thought my last post to you would get deleted-it did. I was deserving.

Soon there will be a cresendo of politicians encouraging the Fed to pause in their rate increases. I happen to think they already have paused. Watch what they do, not what they sat. The omnipotent market may already be seeing the future. There will be more to this rally than most people expect or believe. That's the way it always works.

Dennis
 
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Scotty, The market is stuck in forwards and not moving.....I need more impulse power.....give her all ya got Scotty......

I'm trying Captain, but I think the crew abandoned us......

Abandoned us?? Scotty.....

Aye Aye sir! They all went to the theatre to watchthe Syth get their revenge sir!!!!

Ah hahahahahahahaha!:l



Think we are in stuck mode today....:dude:
 
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What did you say?

If the fed stops the dollar will be toasted alive.

Wreck the economy or the dollar.

That is the choice at hand.

The big project now is the trade balance. So the economy will be wrecked. You can all ways fix that later. Remember 2000?
 
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The Technician wrote:
Scotty, The market is stuck in forwards and not moving.....I need more impulse power.....give her all ya got Scotty......

I'm trying Captain, but I think the crew abandoned us......

Abandoned us?? Scotty.....

Aye Aye sir! They all went to the theatre to watchthe Syth get their revenge sir!!!!

Ah hahahahahahahaha!:l



Think we are in stuck mode today....:dude:
Market is stuck because no one wants to take the short side with options expiration tomorrow. They got burnt yesterday.

Monday things go back to normal. Down.
 
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The Technician wrote:
Yeah...maybe we visit 1160 or worse.....dunno in todays market.....anything makes sense.....

:dude:
"The most important thing in life is not the triumph but the struggle. The essential thing is not to have conquered but to have fought well."

Worst six months of the year. Average gain over 50 years 1.5%.

Not good enough for me to stay in stocks long.
 
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