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No problem the Pyreil.....just I didn't want ya'll to think I was just bearish....I'm just a realist.......

check this out

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/17/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

its about the inflation reports coming ......market futures look depressed....

I'm trying to guess our next increase on the G fund here.....May 23......I had to make some adjustments on my prediction the last several days, but still I will need several more rate increases to get it somewhat predictable.....
 
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Ut oh, PPI and core PPI higher than expected..................................................boom!!
 
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The Technician wrote:
Well, here's to sitting on the sidelines.....with me and my patience.....Cheers!!!:^ Where is that beer mug lifting smilie face when you need one!!
Click to expand...
I'm not sure if this is what you were asking for but if it was Here it is (although it's a little early in the morning maybe your time is different)>>

BEER_NEW23.gif
WW.gif
 
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I've been looking at somedata and in the next several days we will be seeing a rapid change in that info......:)

This type of volatility normally generates a market move in one direction or another....it is this one parameter that has made the market volatile this month.......its time is near and it time to keep your eyes open....:oo...I'm not sure if we're going down or not.....nothing is normal in this market lately.....but the economy factors/market conditions and logic indicate we should be going down.....

Maybe that is why I've been smelling raw meat lately.....

:dude:
I'm getting some pretty strong downward impulses this morning.....yesterdays was broad and shallow......
 
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Taking a look at some other data that gives me some preliminary conditions....several days away.....

Looks like we are going negative on several factors....;)trend is definitely down.....

Its not a good time to be in folks....:shock:

Of course I could be wrong...but ......I wouldn't be in with your money right now.....:shock:

Kick me aroundlater if I'm wrong....:^

Gulpppp! :dude:
 
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My counter to the inflation fears:

80% of the companies reporting earnings thus far have beaten wall street's expectations for the first quarter of this year. This is in a $50 per barrel oil and rising interest rates environment. If I read the information on my tv correctly, the average earnings growth reported was 16% year-over-year. :shock:

This is about as good as it gets on the fundamentals. The market *should* go up given the data. Yes, high oil prices are worrisome as are inflation fears - but with earnings reports this good, isn't that what should trump the other things? I think so. The bottom line is what matters, and companies are making money. That should make investors happy (except for those stupid enough to invest in US automakers).
 
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As a reminder....I said yesterday that we should expect somewhat of a reprieve in the S&P.....take a look at the current price....on really low low volume over normal vol during this time of day.....normally happens right before a definite drop , take a look after S&P peaked at 1553 and then peaks further on.....right before it drops a little rise then down she goes.....its a carrot that you don't want to bite.....;)

I'm expecting S&P at 1120's or below (possibly 1080's)real soon....:?

Mike, earnings are great right now.....but what about next year? With everybody tightening their pocketbook.....what do you think is going to be the earnings picture then....?:^

Profits are great now because companies are asking too much for their products...:(...its sort of like they are raping the public, they are getting what they can, not what is an honest profit (supply and demand)........

It is well known commodity prices are out of this roof....peaked out...(supply is there but demand is dropping see the news, Japan and other countries are in recession, Americans have quit buying as much)......:?

Don't you feel like you pay too much for items and services.....???:%

:dude:
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date May 17th, Closing


Market News.

News:Court jester talks of Porcrlain playing with their yuan.

Elsewhere: Sacks of money found inOld Depot area.

Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at1173.81 up +8.12
CMF (money flow) at0.139, rising.

$BPSPX (breadth)
RSI (strength) at20.0, inlow range/oversold.
MACD (trend) at -2.80, rising, bullish.

Tea Leaves: Green with caution: market in trading range.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 0/100 (50C, 50S).
Do Bears have horns??

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
 
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Wheels wrote:
It's nice to have two up days in a row finally.

Dave
Click to expand...
Yup:D But tomorrow is another day... I agree with Tech about prices in commodities and services are getting higher.Are PPI, CPI, housing, earnings going up because weare paying more? I don't think so. I think that the economy is still in good shape and this is just one of those roller coaster ride that we must ride.At this point of time, I am bullish (with a little hint of bearishness)
 
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Pyrel. I am sorry if I failed to make it clear with intrest raes. I see them going up slow and steady to approximately four percent. This is not a high or low level. This by many is considered a neutral level. I did discuss I believe what would happen if they go up fast. I also believe that the I fund will do better after the Fed speaks. As there are people and such betting or hoping that the Fed may get more aggresive. They do that the dollar will go up in value. People will be a disapointed and jump out of the U.S. dollar for a while if it is slow and steady. The I fund I believewillbe good.There will be a point though that the dollar will go more in value as people will invest in the U.S. as we will have higher intrest rates then other places. Simply put as I know what I mean and my thoughts get jumbled. I fund will go up after Fed speaks and I have let it ride. I took the hit but I will get the bound back up and then some. I believe that Greenspan wants to leave the Fed in a good position to raise or lower intrest rates when he leaves. Help the new Fed deal with problems that I believe couldpossibly happenafter the new Fed changes. People have faith in the new Fed and things go good. Or perhaps we could have another start likeGreenspan had. However,look at the nice ride we had with him when he got it together. I did some reading and found in the National Review where they said that the market has not failed to remake losses in what 15 years or something like that with a nice profit. (It was a while back when I read it so I can not give the exact time frame, sorry.) I am not a bear. I am overall a bull trying to do the short ride at times. As a bull rider does I break some ribs and bail sometimes to fast. Ohh well. That is why I only bet what I can afford to lose. :^
 
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TECHNICAL FORECAST:Short term indicatorsare mixed - market remains in a downtrend channel.

TECHNICAL FORCAST- SHORT TERM INDICATORS -MIXED[/b]

SUMMARY: [/b]The market was higher today, the Dow Industrials rose 79 points to 10,331, the NASDAQ was up 9 points to 2,004, and the S&P 500 Index was up 8 points to 1,173. In spite of today's gains all 3 averages remain not far from the lowest levels since October, 2004, having given back most of the gains of the past 7 months.

Since so much of the trading in the stock market is done by day traders a lot depends on the mood of traders. Considering the widespread declines now occurring in the currency, precious metals (and other) markets, the mood is one of uncertainty. AND are turning down (although some are near oversold) and the price charts on the stock market averages remain in sharp downtrends. All of this will discourage many potentially long traders.

STILL BEARISH - G80C10 S5 F5 A gaurded stance.

I would be suprised to see three UP days in a row. FOR THE BULLS SAKE, I HOPE FOR A GOOD DAY. GOOD LUCK TO ALL TSPTALK SUPPORTERS

cliff


 
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No, I do not believe I am paying too much for goods and services.

The two things in which I've seen the most inflation are housing prices and gas prices. Since I'm a renter, I don't particularly care at this point about purchase prices. Since I have a fuel efficient car and don't do a ton of driving, the gas prices haven't really done much to me, either.

The only area where I'm vulnerable right now is long term interest rates - but even those won't do much to me, since I'll be completely debt free in 3 years.
 
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I would expect all Chinese products to inflate in prices over the next several years....whether its the Yuan inflating or just tariffs inflating the prices....just one more inflation factor to consider.....we're going to pay more for products for being made here in the US or sold here from China one way or the other....the only other option is producing products in another country other than China.....:(

I see CAFTA is alive and well....u know its the textile industry being attacked this time ....they are going to move the textiles out to the Central American countries and such....labor costs too much here.....:?

China is cranking it up again....16% increase in factory output....while at the same time ours is dropping.....:shock:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050518/bs_afp/chinaeconomyoutput_050518073711

Dang too many non smiling faces......:X maybe we should do a smiley face index or something.....

:dude:
 
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I think people are being incredibly selfish fighting something like CAFTA. The countries in central america are the poorest of the poor, and the idea of shutting them out of the American market just to prop up a bloated and inefficient (comparatively speaking) industry is flat out ridiculous and wrong.

We aren't doing anyone any favors by enacting protectionist policies. In the end, the consumer loses - right along with those in other countries who can do the same job better. If some had their way, we'd still be riding along in horsedrawn buggies because the buggy industry would have successfully priced the American public out of the fledgeling automobile market in the early 20th century.
 
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I don't think its the move as much as its the instability it creates for you and your childrens quality of life...:^..of course, if you don't have decendents, you may or may not care about the quality of life of the future generation.....the real quest is how to make income and improving our quality of lifeby expanding our markets....not by debilitating the one we have....globalization is great for major companies.....but it doesn't include the generalAmerican Populations benefit. If it did just ask the guy down the street who lost his job due to NAFTA and now is living at a lower quality of life....so are his kids. He should have been included in the corporate equation and he should benefit by globalization also.....whether he had to move to another country to work for the company or whatever....but he should have been included in corporate Americas plans for further profits.......this is going to come back and bite Corporate America right in the A@@!

I think when America wakes up (after all the other countries run us over and everybody here is living like a third world country with little or no clothes, no doctor or dentistry care for the average population, short of food, lack of transportation, no vacations....etc etc) we will try to care how we take care of ourhome and neighborsfirst.....let the foreigners take care of their home first, they throw it away everyday.......;)

We are just giving away our economic advantage and our quality of lifewe have built up over the past couple of centuries..........well when it gets down to it....if you have the advantage business wise.....keep it!!!! Or you will be the one without!!!:^

:dude:
 
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