Market Talk

[The_Technician]

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I would like to bring to your attention the market is tempting right now, but I know the overall market condition and I want to check if I'm not seeing something....:s....its like I'm a fish smelling a lure and I am not sure if I see a hook.......

At the moment I have questioned everything I have seen and made sense of .......just to keep it justified....but I continue tostill seeevidence I was right....and therefore my questioning every minute of the day keeps me at bay......somethinglearned by experience....

it like......Right at the moment, someone wants you to buy.....while they get a better position later.....its a carrot and its looking for takers.....:shock: its just dangling out there....right in front of ya.......

There's plenty of room below this level in the S&P while the top line is trying to hammer it down.....so it is still evident to watch and wait.....:^

Keep you itchy fingers off the trigger all......patience is a virtue.... wait until its quite evident that we have a definite moment to get in.....

I still feel aslide coming ........this week or a little later on......but I wouldn't put it past the market for a little reprieve right here......waiting for that moment when you know for sure....... its time.......

I can still wait some more.............

A moment in time can be a little exciting can't it........



:dude:

 

[Spaf]

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Breadth Indicators for monitoring market conditions

For the stock or index fund investor, it is important to maintain a feel for the prevailing market conditions. Whether one pursues a regular “buy and hold” or a more sporadic approach to stock investment, one should always be aware of the inherent risk and potential returns that the market has to offer; and your investment strategy should constantly adapt to meet these conditions.
Market averages such as the Dow Industrials or S&P500 indices are the most readily available barometers for market conditions. Using charts, it is relatively straight-forward to determine the current index trend, and to identify how long this trend has been in place. However, what is more beneficial is to have an understanding of the underlying strength of these market trends as this will go some way to determining the likelihood of the trend changing and the relative levels of market risk. Breadth indicators were developed precisely with this task in mind: to determine the strength of a market trend by looking at the trends of its constituent stocks.

Will modify the doodles to show the S&P 500 index closing, direction, and include the relative money flow. Will be adding the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index strength (RSI) and the related moving average convergence divergence (MACD).
.......................................................................................................................................

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date May 16th, Closing


Market News.

News: Buyers returned to the market looking for bargains. Sales reported up!

Elsewhere: Krude took horse "Fill-er-up" to the vet. Vet said that horse needed to be on a diet after eating everything in the stable.


Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at1165.68 up +11.63.
CMF (money flow) at0.123, falling slightly.

$BPSPX (breadth)
RSI (strength) at20.5, inoversold area.
MACD (trend) at -2.87, rising bullish.

Tea Leaves: Green with caution: market in trading range.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 0/100 (50C, 50S).

 

[pyriel]

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Tech,

You are doing a good job putting out your bear message and rest assure that people on this board are tuning in to what you are saying. We need people like you here to be on the other side of the river to keep us (bulls) straight and honest. If I was near retirement or have big egg nest, I would definitely be swimming to be on your side of the river. Continue what you are doing so that people will see the different views and make better decisions on how to allocate their fund.

All,

I really like all the input everyone is putting out. I especially like the fact that there seems to be more respect with others opinions here and less head bashing. Please keep up the collaboration so that we can all make money together whetherwe are in a bull or bear market...

Pyriel

 

[SkyPilot]

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Here, here! :^

 

[Guest]

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[Birchtree]

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The Technician,

According to the Chambers Brothers 1968- "Time has Come". I can't afford to miss even the smallest move up-I'm greedy and want it all. I've been holding 100% C fund and now I want my due reward.

 

[Birchtree]

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Spaf,

Here are a few factoids that make me think the as500 is the place to be. It would appear that value managers are sitting on the biggest hoards of cash in the history of their funds, in some cases topping more than 30% of assets - six times as much as the typical actively managed stock fund. Will this rocket fuel show itself on a technical graph? When it ignites it wll be to late-it wll be hard to catch the momentum. Just like the hedge fund clowns last week, when the value guys move it will most likely be in tandem. They have to put the money to work or they can't market their funds to the public.

Another reason for the C fund. Over the last five years, the average small cap value fund has returned 14.6% a year and midcap value funds are up an average 10.6% a year over the same time frame. Large cap funds have fallen 8.27% a year over the last five years. Sounds like a good contrarian maneuver to me.

 

[Guest]

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The Technician wrote:

If I told you how much data I look at to make my decisions, you couldn't imaging..:shock:...its not just one or two plots....its an interpretation of multitudes of data and then I consider current market/economic conditions.....its mind boggeling on how much data I look at .........this is not a simple process.....but I think I have been doing a fair job at trying to predict the future.....(its not possible to get it always right and most of the time is just a fairly educated approximation) I don't want to say "guess" because its not....

It's the same for me.

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

According to the Chambers Brothers 1968- "Time has Come". I can't afford to miss even the smallest move up-I'm greedy and want it all. I've been holding 100% C fund and now I want my due reward.

"Time Has Come Today" - The Chambers Brothers

Time has come today
Young hearts can go their way
Can't put it off another day
I don't care what others say
They say we don't listen anyway
Time has come today
(Hey)

Oh
The rules have changed today (Hey)
I have no place to stay (Hey)
I'm thinking about the subway (Hey)
My love has flown away (Hey)
My tears have come and gone (Hey)
Oh my Lord, I have to roam (Hey)
I have no home (Hey)
I have no home (Hey)

Now the time has come (Time)
There's no place to run (Time)
I might get burned up by the sun (Time)
But I had my fun (Time)
I've been loved and put aside (Time)
I've been crushed by the tumbling tide (Time)
And my soul has been psychedelicized (Time)

(Time)
Now the time has come (Time)
There are things to realize (Time)
Time has come today (Time)
Time has come today (Time)

 

[Birchtree]

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Wonder Woman,

This factiod is for you. What will happen if the Fed does surprise and decides to pause on rate increases. This is something to ponder for the C fund to help make you right. If the Fed does stop increasing rates this would help stimulate business in the financial companies, where costs go up faster than their income when rates are rising. Because financial stocks are the biggest group in the sp500, representing more than 20% of the index, their fortunes have a big impact on the index's performance. We may have already seen the bottom in the sp500.

By the way, the Toto is the best toilet made-from Japan with many built in features, including water temperature control. I hope I wasn't offending on my take of Al Gore.

 

[grandma]

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Birchtree said: I hope I wasn't offending on my take of Al Gore.

When quoting isused in context and as was said, how can there be offense?? After all, this particular felow invented the internet, right? Reminds of the history of the cell phone, invented by a Jew, who received no particular recognition; then therewas Yasser Arafat wo invented airplane hijacking, and he got the Nobel Peace Prize.

 

[Birchtree]

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Grandma,

This has been a fun night. Tomorrow should be a fun day. I'm glad to see some pics and graphics . Wild thing-I think you move me. Dennis

 

[learning]

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grandma wrote:

... Reminds of the history of the cell phone, invented by a Jew, who received no particular recognition; then therewas Yasser Arafat wo invented airplane hijacking, and he got the Nobel Peace Prize.

LOL:l That is the way this world works. No, it is not right.:h

Here is a thougt- Take it one step further if the Fed does not raise intrest rates. The markets in the U.S. would do better. The small cap I would suspect would do the best in the U.S. However, the international funds would kick tell for us. They would go up as our market would go up. People are betting on the U.S. currency and I believe that is in part due to intrest rates going up here. So I would suspect that we would see people selling our dollar. The dollar would go down and the I fund would go through the roof. Note- I do not believe this will happen. The Fed I believe will continue to raise the rates to a neutral level. Approximately 4% intrest level so the new Fed will have room to play with in both directions. Just my thought on that subject.

 

[nnuut]

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I really like all the input everyone is putting out. I especially like the fact that there seems to be more respect with others opinions here and less head bashing. Please keep up the collaboration so that we can all make money together whetherwe are in a bull or bear market...

Pyriel

I'm with you on that one Pyriel. It is refreshing to hear other points of view, especially when they are experienced. The market could go many ways, the more input we get the better we can evaluate what others think and make our own decisions. For a time we were not getting very much QUALITY input, especially just before the deadline. I try to post daily before the deadline, but close to it, sometimes too close! HEE!! Sometime things change quickly, oil up, Greenspud saying the wrong thing etc. Hope we can all try to do the same. Keep up the GOOD WORK people!:^

Norman

 

[Show-me]

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Yes, the board has taken a turn for the better. Thank you all!

 

[Spaf]

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Birchtree wrote:

Spaf,

Here are a few factoids that make me think the as500 is the place to be.

Another reason for the C fund. Over the last five years, the average small cap value fund has returned 14.6% a year and midcap value funds are up an average 10.6% a year over the same time frame. Large cap funds have fallen 8.27% a year over the last five years. Sounds like a good contrarian maneuver to me.

Birch

I assume U were referring to the S&P500.

Take today: In Stocks: C was up +0.12, S was up +0.16, I was down -0.02.

In ETFs,small capswill respond to oversold conditions. Real estate has been good. But, other areas are kind of choppy. However, we are in a area where the doodles say it is time to go long. In todays market going long might be hours, days, weeks at best.

Gawd I love it! Regards Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Maybe, and I just say maybe, we got the bears attention!

 

[pyriel]

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Sorry learning and birchtree, but I have to give you the bad news... Rates will continue to increase. There is no going around it. I'm into real estate and as much as I want to jump in to your bandwagon, I just don't see these party poopers letting up. I am glad however, that they have not made any drastic and sudden increase. If that happens, I'll set up camp with Greg and Tech. hehehhehe....

 

[The_Technician]

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Pyriel...... I would prefer to be bullish....but its not the time nor is the risk low enough.....I'm not sure Birch why you persist in the C at the moment...later maybe but not with the current risk at hand....

Soon we will see some sort of break, this market has to make its move sooner or later.....

Yesterdays action didn't change much in the S&P....we're still high for the period and looking for some more price reduction.....we're stilll in that mix of data I've been talking about for a month now.....but its time is coming to an end in the first week of June .......the 1% up was sad to see on my part, seeing that I'm in G, but at the same time its unpredictable......it goes against all the data I have and that tells me market manipulation is amongst us and rampant.....whoever got in it yesterday, I hope they get out of it soon....

Did ya'll notice that the air has been let out of the I fund lately....its not the I, its the C that is making the percentages.....that old dollar is making its move to strength....and in many ways that is good.....now to position yourself to make something of it when the time comes!

I couldn't help but notice the action on the Venezulean and Brazilian currencies....it could be something to keep an eye on.......I'm looking for their value to return.....

I'm kind ofleaning on an external inflation factor (foreign exchange rates-like the Chinese Yuan) working its way into our economy...

Well, here's to sitting on the sidelines.....with me and my patience.....Cheers!!!:^ Where is that beer mug lifting smilie face when you need one!!

Did we get the increase in the G yet??? I gotta get that G fund prediction working ......

:dude:

 

[pyriel]

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The Technician wrote:

Pyriel...... I would prefer to be bullish....but its not the time nor is the risk low enough.....I'm not sure Birch why you persist in the C at the moment...later maybe but not with the current risk at hand....

Did ya'll notice that the air has been let out of the I fund lately....its not the I, its the C that is making the percentages.....that old dollar is making its move to strength....and in many ways that is good.....now to position yourself to make something of it when the time comes!

Did we get the increase in the G yet??? I gotta get that G fund prediction working ......

:dude:

Sorry Tech, no pun intended with my remarks. As for the I, that near term future is bleak right now... All international were down today, especially here in Asia. Europe is following suit. As for the G fund, if you guys ever solved that prediction, then i'll be bowing my head, raising my hand, andyell "Im not worthy."