Market Talk

[Spaf]

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16 March 10:30 CT

Market hitting lower portion of trading range at 1188. Nothing fancy, but effecting transfer to 80G, 20C, this AM.

 

[Guest]

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Scaring thing: Historically this is the strongest week in the market until the first week of November .

This week not be so hot.

 

[coolhand]

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rajun cajun wrote:

I sure hope you're right, Coolhand, but the FTSE is getting clobbered by about .8 and the Nikkei was only up about .4

Therefore, we're behind on the stock side and will need some help froma lower dollar just to break even today...unless the FTSE rises late in the day. :^

RC

With oil breaking all-time high and GM's disappointing forcast, not to mention the expected current account deficit, I decided to lighten up on the I. That was more bad news than I was expecting. The dollar is still much weaker today, which should help a lot.

 

[Guest]

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learning wrote:

Dubious- here it is. Very little of our money is in paper or coin. No, most is electronic. A great deal of printed money sits in vaults and waits for distrabution. Most is meant for small purchases. How, many times have you gone to buy a house or car with real cash, (not checks/ money orders/ etc...) Most of the money created by the goverment is through loaning institutions that are FDIC covered or one of the other similar programs. It has been a while since I have studied this. More years then I will admit. LOL Point is cash is the smallest portion of our economy.

Ohh one other little thing. I have noticed that you have a writting style similar to another person that use to be here. Have you been here under another name in the past?

RGDS. Take care wish you and all here all the best. $$$

Can you please e-mail the fed about this? They increased M3 by 54B last week.

If there is not enough cash to cover the economy - then there is no economy .

Mad Max - It is a house of cards.

 

[Rolo]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

Come on I like patting my back!

My pixs were the lower grade crude futures. I said "Any of the lower grades of crude" buy the longest future contracts you can get.

In this market I am not going long anything. I am flipping and flopping so I have no pixs. I ride em and dump em, short em and fry em. The tides are going in and out...the morning is different from the afternoon.

Do not have time to bicker with you anymore.

Money to be made and had in these markets. That is why I do not post a lot here anymore....when the market trades in a narrow range I basically kill time but with these big swings - that is where I like to go surfing for coins.

Go get em champ!:^

Nothing but fast-talk and catchy-phrases. You avoid specifics. You'd probably make a better used car salesman. 0wn3d before you even started. :?

 

[Guest]

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Yes, you are correct! You are all ways correct.

Last two days I have made probably nine times more you will make for the whole year...but yes you are correct .

 

[Rolo]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

Last two days I have made probably nine times more you will make for the whole year

If you are talking NATURAL GAS, then no contest, windbag.

 

[Guest]

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You are correct. However, that is UNLEADED gas. Ding!

 

[Guest]

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Looks like another sharp sell at the end of the day.

Did not see that coming .

Start shorting the international indexes. Orders all ready in :^.

 

[learning]

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Spaf wrote:

Rolo wrote:

Jå, a white day on higher volume would be essential. Another black day on higher volume would be time to bail...but at what point? below 1184?

Someplace between where we are at now and 1184. But this is just my guess! The problem is when you think you have it figured out a horseman shows up to say gotyah!

I AM NOT WORTHY, I AM NOT WORTHY! Credit given where it is due.

The both of you called this. I had a much higer low. There have been previous post that even hit this on the mark, (todays trading). The low that we are at to this point. Spaf you have a post a day or two ago that talks about 1186 or something and loook where we are at this hour. I put this up just to say, GOOD JOB! hope you both made killing. :!

Now, are you going back into the market or staying G and I? Problem is we could not trade at this hour today if we wanted to. However, there is always a tommorow. Again Rolo and Spaf- did great.

 

[Spaf]

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We are sitting very close to the bottom of the trading range. We should start back up the range. "should" is not a guarantee, just how some past trading ranges have reacted. We still have the horsemen to contend with. Be very careful. As posted I'll be 80G, 20C eff. this PM.

 

[cowboy]

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learning wrote:

Spaf wrote:

Rolo wrote:

Jå, a white day on higher volume would be essential. Another black day on higher volume would be time to bail...but at what point? below 1184?

Someplace between where we are at now and 1184. But this is just my guess! The problem is when you think you have it figured out a horseman shows up to say gotyah!

I AM NOT WORTHY, I AM NOT WORTHY! Credit given where it is due.

The both of you called this. I had a much higer low. There have been previous post that even hit this on the mark, (todays trading). The low that we are at to this point. Spaf you have a post a day or two ago that talks about 1186 or something and loook where we are at this hour. I put this up just to say, GOOD JOB! hope you both made killing. :!

Now, are you going back into the market or staying G and I? Problem is we could not trade at this hour today if we wanted to. However, there is always a tommorow. Again Rolo and Spaf- did great.

My thought is ifthey knew that 1184 is a support line why sit in the funds and take a loss? If the market goes down again than it doesn't have any support.

 

[Shaggy]

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Another question for those who are much smarter then most. If you already jumped back in this morning along with Tom like I did(COB 3/16/05), do you jump back out tomarrow morning? try to take the expected one day bounce or is it time to stay awhile and see what happens?

 

[Spaf]

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Shaggy... This is a calculated risk! Will have to wait for tomorrow. If...If the market stays within the trading range then it should go (crawl) back up to the top portion of the trading range (maybe). Here again, maybe the 1184 support won't hold. That's the reason for using a relative small % at this point. It's a wait and see!

 

[Rolo]

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I think TSPGO mentioned 1184 support first.

Shaggy: I'm not expecting a one-day bounce and even if I were, I would not play it...this ain't Scottrade.

cowboy: It's been50/50 to me, it will either start an uptrend any day, or it will fall to a support level before it goes to new highs. I'm not a gambler, so I won't bet either way; I will only bet that if I hold, I will make a profit. In hindsight, yes, it appears easy and I could have sold and waited to buy back, but I'm no Dr Dubious.

Dr Dubious:In addition tohot air, I was thinking METHANE. :shock:

For C fund, if it drops below 1184, support is broken and will have to wait for a trend reversal. I wouldn't be surprised if it walked along the support line for a few days. I think Tom's market comments for today nailed it.

 

[Shaggy]

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Thank you both for the input! You both seem to be a little more realistic and level headed then most. I did stay 50% G and continued my 20% I, I just went back in 20% C and 10% S. Trying to stay close to the moderates while I learn.

 

[Brewnet]

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http://abcnews.go.com/Business/CSM/story?id=577298

Interesting article on baby boomers and retirement affecting stocks.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP for March 16

The Wednesday wrap

The hills and valley:Big Chief due to speak tomorrow. Valley investors threaten to take green stuff and go home if horsemen can't be controlled.

Ouija board (S&P charts): In the readings, the S&P closed down ANOTHER -9.68 to 1188.07. Money flow was weak. Strength declining.MACD had a cross down to bearish, still above centerline, but indicating negative divergence.

Remarks: The G-mountain remains safe harbor.1188 places prices near bottom of the trading range (1225 - 1184). Big ??? is who will control the valley???

Rgds :* Spaf

 

[Dave M]

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I see early-look oil futures are up again today.I was thinking back to 1973 when there was an embargo and then prices spiked. It initiated a period of inflation as the spike worked its way through the economy, and resulted in our getting off the gold standard. Once the dollar had sunk sufficiently then things got back on track, about 1980.

At that time the price had fallen to about $10.Producers continuously increased production in order to maintainrevenues, resulting in an oversupply. These kinds of increases no longer seem feasible, there doesn't seem to bethat much capacity overhang.

Is there an expert on hand who can check my memory?

Dave

 

[vectorman]

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I noticed many are jumping out of stocks and going all or mostly into G. People who remained in stocks are tired of the uncertainty, high oil and getting beaten up.If those jumping out are reacting to their exit strategy, then that is a good thing, but if it's due to emotional disgust, then the contrarian view says we may be near a bottom.Buy and holders sleep well at night and only worry about another 9/11 or a recession. If you jump in and out of the TSP too much you'll water down your gains and may feel more frustrated. Its good to preserve capital, but it better to have some sort of investing plan with enter and exit strategies, instead of just rolling the dice.Tom, Rolo, TSPGO member, Spaf, and many others here follow their investment plan by trying to be consistent and adjust if needed. Invest wisely. Thanks Tom for this site,it has really helped in learning about our TSP account.:^