Market Talk

[Wheels]

imported post

If you sift through the account talk threads that were posted to this morning you'll see that that many of you either remained in the I, or increased your I, or jumped 100& into I. TEEFUL is the exception who bailed on the I. As I stated above I wonder if this is a microcosm of Tom's often used Bull vs. Bear sentiment survey.

I wish Sarah were still around. She seemed to be our resident expert on the dollar's activity.

Still waiting for a good time to jump back into the I but not sure if this is it.

Dave

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Dave...It went from a bear behind ever bush to aherd of bulls in the boat!
Pass the snorkel please!

 

[TEUFEL HUNDEN]

imported post

This is how I see it.

 

[coolhand]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

Dave...It went from a bear behind ever bush to aherd of bulls in the boat!
Pass the snorkel please!

Yeah, did you see where thewaterline movedto?!

 

[learning]

imported post

Wheels wrote:

I wish Sarah were still around. She seemed to be our resident expert on the dollar's activity.

Many times things go on while I am gone. Who or what chased Sarah away? This is why I hate trash talk. Pro's won't take it. They don't need it. (However, there are some people I have wondered about. If they were trying to help or hurt. I had no problems with her post, EVER!)

 

[coolhand]

imported post

Okay, there's a news flash out on Fox news that the Pentagon mail facility tested positive for anthrax. Not sure how this is going to play.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP for March 14

The Monday wrap

The hills and valley: The horsemen rode the valley up, down, and back up, confining market activity.

Ouija board (S&P charts): In the readings, the S&P closed at 1206, up +6.75. CMF money flow trended lower, but still in the plus range. RSI strength remained neutral. The MACD was declining, but above centerline.

Remarks: Holding 85-15 (I-fund). The G-mountain remains safe harbor. Coolhand reported that overseas shipping was hampered by lower than usual tides.

 

[Montana]

imported post

Wheels wrote:

I wish Sarah were still around. She seemed to be our resident expert on the dollar's activity.

Saraho was lurking here this past weekend so if she keeps seeing how much she is missed, maybe she'll return. We all miss you Sarah. Come on back.

 

[Guest]

imported post

The USD is trending down for the past 3 years. Do not see any reason for it to trend upward. Other then devaluing the currency and trying this all over again. Like most countries with debts 336% of their GDP normally do. This may be a news flash; the U.S. for all intensive purposes is bankrupt.

That is why I moved overseas .

 

[Guest]

imported post

Crude is over $56 on the May 05 contracts. Good thing I purchased them at $46 seven weeks ago.

The market futures indexes are reflecting this news.

Dr Clueless

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Dr_Dubious wrote:

Crude is over $56 on the May 05 contracts. Good thing I purchased them at $46 seven weeks ago.

The market futures indexes are reflecting this news.

Dr Clueless

The horseman of energy will take it's toll!

For what it's worth EFA (the I-fund) closed last week at 165.25. When it opened on Monday it was down to 164.44, a minus -0.81. What caused the difference...Don't know. In the PM EFA closed out at 164.72, regaining +0.28 points. The stats on the I fund look ok. However if the horsemen get to this fund we will only have the safety of the G fund. Right now we sit almost in the middle of the trading range.


Rgds :? Spaf

 

[Guest]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

Dr_Dubious wrote:

Crude is over $56 on the May 05 contracts. Good thing I purchased them at $46 seven weeks ago.

The market futures indexes are reflecting this news.

Dr Clueless

The horseman of energy will take it's toll!

Right on Spaf.

And if the fed will change their data from 25 crude to 55 crude and corporations were not using 30 crude for PEs we will really see what is going on.

Bubbles Mar 04 - Crude at these levels (32) is temporary - I guess when you are a dinasour 12 months is temporary...however adjust the freaking oil price in the data, dude. They are so quick to adjust stuff down when it makes things look good - when it makes things look bad - 12 freaking months? When the collapse comes it is going to be all that more harder.

4 days before the crash in March 2000 - He comes out with "Corporations are on solid footing and the economy continues strong growth".

Maybe the new guy is Greenspan because they are both out of touch with reality.:shock:

 

[Guest]

imported post

Interest factoid. Our heros at the Fed increased M3 by 43.5B last week (one week record - yippee).

The total amount of money printed from 1913 until 1969 was 20.4B this means in one week theydoubled the amount of money in circulation for56 years.

This means delution of the USD.

Reason for this mass printing: The US treasury debt sales did not go to hot. So they had to put the printing presses on full blast to pay the trade debt.

I know this is hard to grasp...ok you have 1,000 shares of XYZ stock at $100 per share. What would happen if 1,000 shares of XYZ stock would come on the market by just printing more stock certificates? The share price would go done due to more shares on the open market (sort of what is going on with Google - insiders hold period is up and they are dumping, dumping, dumping their shares until the open market).

Once she (USD) breaks (81.50)...she could fall to .74 .

 

[Guest]

imported post

Hey Rolo - remember my advice about buying the crappy crude futures (seven or eight weeks ago)? Have been making a killing on them. Cashed out on Friday. Bought the Kiwi bird currency. Fly away, far away.

Ta da:

Sour crude oil sweetens profits for refineries
By Brad Foss - AP
March 14, 2005


Like bartenders putting cheap alcohol into their cocktails, some U.S. refiners are reaping huge profits by using lower quality crude oil to make everything from gasoline to diesel.

The difference is that, unlike martinis mixed with barnyard booze, these finished fuels, after a little extra work, are the same quality as those made with top-shelf ingredients and therefore fetch the same high price from consumers. But the initial cost per barrel is $7 to $17 cheaper.

Despite the extra costs associated with processing lower quality crude, the profit margins of independent refiners able to handle it are up sharply. Valero reported net income in 2004 of $1.8 billion, nearly three times its results a year earlier, while Premcor Inc.'s profits tripled to $478 million.

Valero's shares have more than doubled in the past year, while Premcor's are up slightly less than that. Shares of Frontier Oil Corp. also have soared.

Valero attributed its stellar fourth-quarter results to its "superior leverage to sour crude discounts," which were $10 per barrel cheaper, on average, than the price of West Texas Intermediate, the light, sweet oil that futures prices are pegged to on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP for March 15

The Tuesday wrap

The hills and valley: Valley investors stayed indoors as the horsemen roamed the valley. No sign of rescue.

Ouija board (S&P charts): In the readings, the S&P closed down -9.08 to 1197.75. Money flow was weak, but still positive. Relative strength remained neutral. The MACD had a cross down to bearish, still above centerline, but indicating negative divergence.

Remarks: The G-mountain remains safe harbor.1197 places prices in the lower half of the trading range (1225 - 1184). No indication of a reversal.

Rgds! :? Spaf

 

[Rolo]

imported post

Dr_Dubious wrote:

Hey Rolo - remember my advice about buying the crappy crude futures (seven or eight weeks ago)? Have been making a killing on them. Cashed out on Friday.

It wasn't that long ago, but you can post a link to it to correct me if I am wrong. I am still waiting for your six picks.

Perhaps you can tear the other hand from patting your back and clickee the mousey and give us some suggestions beforehand and not after-the-fact.

Also, I do not agree with your analogy: the printing of more US currency is not the same as a company producing more shares of it's stock. The difference: the company has a market cap and the share price is derived from that market cap. Currency is not subject to such concrete, fixed values.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Come on I like patting my back!

My pixs were the lower grade crude futures. I said "Any of the lower grades of crude" buy the longest future contracts you can get.

In this market I am not going long anything. I am flipping and flopping so I have no pixs. I ride em and dump em, short em and fry em. The tides are going in and out...the morning is different from the afternoon.

Do not have time to bicker with you anymore.

Money to be made and had in these markets. That is why I do not post a lot here anymore....when the market trades in a narrow range I basically kill time but with these big swings - that is where I like to go surfing for coins.

Go get em champ!:^

 

[coolhand]

imported post

Dollar is "spiking" lower against all major currencies ahead of the Q4 current account data. Could be a good day for the I fund. We'll see.

 

[Ragin Cajun]

imported post

I sure hope you're right, Coolhand, but the FTSE is getting clobbered by about .8 and the Nikkei was only up about .4

Therefore, we're behind on the stock side and will need some help froma lower dollar just to break even today...unless the FTSE rises late in the day. :^

RC

 

[learning]

imported post

Dubious- here it is. Very little of our money is in paper or coin. No, most is electronic. A great deal of printed money sits in vaults and waits for distrabution. Most is meant for small purchases. How, many times have you gone to buy a house or car with real cash, (not checks/ money orders/ etc...) Most of the money created by the goverment is through loaning institutions that are FDIC covered or one of the other similar programs. It has been a while since I have studied this. More years then I will admit. LOL Point is cash is the smallest portion of our economy.

Ohh one other little thing. I have noticed that you have a writting style similar to another person that use to be here. Have you been here under another name in the past?

RGDS. Take care wish you and all here all the best. $$$