Market Talk

[Show-me]

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I found this but link will not let me read whole story.

Japan life insurers may shed US bonds, buy Nikkei [size=-1]- at Reuters - 59 minutes ago[/size]
[size=-1]Japanese life insurers are considering cutting back their massive holdings of U.S. bonds as the Federal Reserve's ongoing series of interest rate rises makes their hedging of dollar currency risk too pricey.[/size]

[size=-1]:*[/size]

 

[Guest]

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My little news hound. You may want to take a hard look of going back to 100% G fund. The crude futures are nearing 54 and the precious metals are popping.

Asia is holding up well (I was hoping Hong Kong would snap back more).But I feel if crude stays at these levels for a day that may cause some profit taking. I am shorting; transports, airlines, delta, united, america, yellow roadway, fedex, QQQQs, soxx, pharma, financials, biotech to name a few. LUCENT, SIRIUS, XM :shock:.

Just my .02 buddy.

 

[Show-me]

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Been thinking about it since noon.

Good luck!:^

 

[Guest]

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Just be careful about that deadline. It is taking some people over an hour to get their transaction through. I felt like Tom Cruise dangling from the ceiling trying to get the freaking thing not to time out. If you accept this mission - ha ha.

Asia is holding up great. I am hoping for a bounce in the Euros. However if crude hangs out around 54...all bets are off.

Smash and grab. It "may" of worked. Is it worth getting greedy?

I actually do not know how the indexes are at these levels. The foundation is cracked...the internals are horrible. When the high flyers are getting clipped then the low hanging fruit will start to fall off the tree also.

Of course, I do not want to pressure you. Do what you think is right.

Maybe I should just worry about myself :?. So if you feel like I am over stepping let me now. 0830 will provide some data but will the data surpass the crude levels?

What I hate the real action in the markets starts about 1pm. AFTER the deadline.

 

[Cortez]

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Show-me wrote:

I found this but link will not let me read whole story.

Japan life insurers may shed US bonds, buy Nikkei [size=-1]- at Reuters - 59 minutes ago[/size]
[size=-1]Japanese life insurers are considering cutting back their massive holdings of U.S. bonds as the Federal Reserve's ongoing series of interest rate rises makes their hedging of dollar currency risk too pricey.[/size]

[size=-1]:*[/size]

If on a large enough scale, selling U.S. bonds and buying Nikkei would certainly be another boost for the I fund.

 

[Spaf]

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Oh No! Give us a break!$80.00 a barrel! We will have to buy horses!

http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Commodities&guid=%7B1B09227D%2D4E2A%2D41FE%2D8CF5%2D33EF0C9F61C0%7D

 

[Dakota]

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I'm looking for the s and p to break its new high today or tomorrow. I'm in 10 30 30 30 gcsI

 

[Dakota]

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Spaf wrote:

Oh No! Give us a break!$80.00 a barrel! We will have to buy horses!

http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Commodities&guid=%7B1B09227D%2D4E2A%2D41FE%2D8CF5%2D33EF0C9F61C0%7D

I've got one I'll sell ya

 

[tsptalk]

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Spaf wrote:

Oh No! Give us a break!$80.00 a barrel! We will have to buy horses!

Have you seen the price of hay? :shock:


(just kidding. I have no idea. Isn't that what they eat?).

 

[Dakota]

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tsptalk wrote:

Spaf wrote:

Oh No! Give us a break!$80.00 a barrel! We will have to buy horses!

Have you seen the price of hay? :shock:


(just kidding. I have no idea. Isn't that what they eat?).

yea the one I have for sale is the one that broke my arm Sorry this got off track good luck

 

[Show-me]

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tsptalk wrote:

Spaf wrote:

Oh No! Give us a break!$80.00 a barrel! We will have to buy horses!

Have you seen the price of hay? :shock:


(just kidding. I have no idea. Isn't that what they eat?).

Sad thing is $80 a barrel oil will reflect in the hay that is bailed with the diesel fueled tractor, the manufacture of the bailer, mower, rake, tractor, transprotation and storage of the hay. Might want to buy a good pair of walking shoe. lol

High oil will effect everything we have direct and indirect contact with.

Buy COAL!

 

[Spaf]

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Market sensitivity

Look what happens when oil talk hits the market!

 

[grandma]

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So, are you going ahead w/your proposed plan last night to go to G?

Would that be the whole kit & kaboodle??

(I don't have a place to park a horse.o)

grandma

 

[Spaf]

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grandma wrote:

So, are you going ahead w/your proposed plan last night to go to G?

grandma

Been giving that some thought. The market is testing the resistance level. Ya got to give it a "E" for effort. However, the "oil" factor is becoming a very sensitive issue. Being that the market is oscillating at the upside of the trading range I'll be going back to "Neutral" 50-50 and carry 15% I-fund as a hedge.

If the market makes a breakout I'll get some gains. If it makes a down side run towards 1184 S&P I'll scamper to the hanger (G-fund). MHO, neutral is a fair spot to watch and wait from.

My problem is that I leave Friday evening to go home and return Monday PM. In the interim I'm without a computer (blind as a bat).


Rgds Spaf

 

[vectorman]

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Could be a possible ' M ' forming if we don't get a strong break out.

 

[Mike]

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Economic data was basically good.

Jobless claims fell to 310k, and the previous week's were revised down to 311k. That probably bodes well for the payroll report coming tomorrow.

Productivity rose 2.5%, beating the estimates of 1.8%.

Can the market overcome the oil issue? A nice jobs report could do it. Strong economic news will relieve investors concerned about high oil prices and their impact. I think it will happen, but I'm prepared to bail out if it fails to.

 

[vectorman]

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Mike wrote:

Economic data was basically good.

Jobless claims fell to 310k, and the previous week's were revised down to 311k. That probably bodes well for the payroll report coming tomorrow.

Productivity rose 2.5%, beating the estimates of 1.8%.

Can the market overcome the oil issue? A nice jobs report could do it. Strong economic news will relieve investors concerned about high oil prices and their impact. I think it will happen, but I'm prepared to bail out if it fails to.

All true, but the NASDAQis still in a downward trend;without a strong breakout; S&P, small caps, and dow may pull back.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=NASDAQ

 

[vectorman]

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Just an observation. In the past, whenever the dow flatten for a few days after a good upward run, it usually produced a pull back. Ever with a good jobs report tomorrow, those who have been in forthe lastweek could take some profits because of the oil situation ( a real fly in the ointment ). Yesterday on CNBC a CEO of a large retail investment firm commentedthat he hasadvised his investors to get back in stocks with 51% of there holdings. I heard the same statements about retail investors jumping back in the market the last week of December 04. We all know what happened within a week.I remember someone else on this board saying that if you hear about a bunch of retail investors jumping in the market at the high end, watch out!!! I ignored that warning then and it cost me. Will history repeat itself. We shall soon see. Hope for a strong break out or pray for a quickcorrection.:^

 

[Guest]

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Mike wrote:

Jobless claims fell to 310k, and the previous week's were revised down to 311k. That probably bodes well for the payroll report coming tomorrow.

Productivity rose 2.5%, beating the estimates of 1.8%.

Can the market overcome the oil issue? A nice jobs report could do it.

What you stated abovecontradicts itself.

The initial jobless claims was a good thing for the economy. However, the strong productivity reports means that companies do not need to hire.

I was worried about a strong productivity report. We needed a weak one. That could of spurred more hiring.

No the market can not overcome the oil issue. Now we have another issue - the inverted yield curve. The 10 year is at 4.35 and the 5 year is at 4.00 (last I checked). .35% for five years worth of risk? NO it is not. If the job report comes in TOO good we may have a yield inversion. If the job report comes in too bad we may have a yield inversion. A healthy market the 10 year is 3% above the overnight rate. The overnight rate is 2.5. If we had a good economy the 10 year should be around 5.25-5.75.

I got a new plan. No matter what the job report states I am not coming out of G until oil stabilizes. Sorry to do the 180 or 360 on ya. Oil at these levels will drag the markets down.

I spoke about a week ago about buying the longest oil contracts you could. Now you know why.

My .02.

 

[Guest]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

17 economic reports next week. After next week that will provide us a clearer picture on direction. If you are on the right side of the job report you could have a great week. Thursday afternoon will tell us whatFriday will look like. To bad we have to have our change in my noon on Thursday. Around 1400 the white house (casa blanco) gets the job report and somehow the hedge fund guys get it shortly there after. Watch the market between 1400-1430. It will be as clear as a bell what the job report will be. I will be trading ETFs then to get ahead of the rest of us peons, short or long. Everything else is noise, Thursday afternoon will let you do if there could be a good rally or downturn. That is my predication and I am holding Coolhand to it.

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