Market Talk

[Guest]

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I just know after the Russian/Iran nuke thing came out the U.S. $ fall off the table and the metals are screaming.

Not sure how this is going to impact the stock market tomorrow...but I would say "it can't be good" but the market has turned into a casino not a stock market anymore.

If any of those economic reports come in light tomorrow that could trigger a sell off. It looks worldwide the only guys that think the GDP report was good was the cheerleaders on CNBC.

Market is down 179 points and they are running stories onluxury vacations. TELL ME WHY THE MARKET IS down 179 points?? They never brought up that Korea was thinking about dumping U.S. debt. Just the normal profit taking after a good Friday, spill. Normal profit taking???? Largest loss in 21 months.

My .02.

 

[coolhand]

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That drop last Tuesday was a warning shot to investors. Yeah, it was panic selling on rumor, but it just goes to show us how delicate the market really is.

Here's an interesting development. A Syrian goodwill gesture. Wonder what brought this on? Could it be that they are trying to deflect attention from that assasination a couple weeks ago?

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/02/27/saddam.halfbrother.ap/index.html

At some point the Israelis may decide to weight in with their vote on that Russian/Iranian nuke deal. I hope I'm inthe "G" fund if they do.

 

[blueskys4ever]

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Lets do a weekend recap, shall we?

Insurgents have destroyed a major oil pipeline in Northern Iraq in an already high priced oil market.

Condoleeza is skipping a G-8, Arab league summit in Eygpt to hang out with the PLO.

Putin just spit in Bush's eye and the rest of the world is watching with their trigger finger on the dollar.

Israel just called off all bets.

I dont think there will be enough positive economic news next week to offset all this.

I am staying 100 percent G.

 

[Guest]

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2 reasons my little news hound:

(1) He smells, I understand he really really smells (that is just a side issue).

(2) He was gaining a lot of support and they were worried he was going to head up a overthrown of the gov. DING!

It was for their own benefit, a little play on when the tomahawks start raining down.

"We are trying to help you with the war on terror, you heartless Americans"

God is good, God is great, God is good, God is great.

Now let me send a 14 year old with 50 pounds of explosive strapped to his body to one of your check stations. God is good, God is great.

Is that politically correct? Not sure. Don't care.

 

[coolhand]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

(1) He smells, I understand he really really smells (that is just a side issue).

You know, that's why they sell an awful lot of perfume over there. I've been there. I know. LOL

 

[Guest]

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Kewl: You can not sugar coat something with a rotten core.

Also DO NOT use the perfume from over there. They put all kinds of extremely harmful chemicials in them. Only thing I buy when I am there is gold bars, rugs, Clintons (cigars )and pistachioas.

My .02.

 

[vectorman]

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Just an observation, check out the chart some use here for the F fund. Notice that whenever there has been heavy volume at the low end of the cycle, the F fund usually started to reverse trend. Check out the volume for today. Remember just an observation, but seems to be consistent.http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG

vectorman[/i]

 

[vectorman]

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What do you think Spaf? Using the Dow Theory, today can't be a good sign since the market still hasn't broken through the December high yet. Ialso wonder if the markets will follow the path of the NASDAQ. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=NASDAQ

 

[Spaf]

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vectorman wrote:

What do you think Spaf? Using the Dow Theory, today can't be a good sign since the market still hasn't broken through the December high yet. Ialso wonder if the markets will follow the path of the NASDAQ. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=NASDAQ

Market opened lower on bad news. Investors disappointed. Sell-off between 11:45 to 12:30. Market now trying to stabalize.....Will it..won't it?????

As said: Beware: we are in a muck-it: a market in a trading range.

The Dow Theory is holding: We ain't out of the correction, and a primary movement has not been reestablished.

Best to play neutral: 50-50, until we get a breakout signal, if :{head for the hanger. If :}lets fly.

TSP is a savings plan. We have limited funds to choose. Can you take your TSP funds and place them in an advancing sector fund. No! We are kind of stuck. It's best to stay neutral or safe till we get out of this ranging market (correction) which ranges from 1213-1164 on the S&P.

Wouldhave liked to have seen an upsidebreakout instead of breaddown. Well back to the tea leaves.

Rgds :? Spaf

 

[learning]

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Spaf wrote:

Hey Chuck

Can You use the govt computer at work? Like during breaks!


Rgds Spaf

Spaf- That is a good question with many answers.:X Here it is. It depends on your agency and department. Mine says knock your self out. Use it. Just do not let it stop you from working or affect your work. If things need to be done do them. Nothing to do, ok. The theory is if it cost the gov little to nothing for you to use it is ok. There are some fine points to be sure. Like no taking pens home for personal use, etc... Need to photo copy a few pages, ok. Next. No down loads at all in our computers. They are sensative and they will not allow them to be attacked by hackers or have any info compromised. I would think that is throughout the gov. Now, one last pitfall. Watch what you get on and view. They do not like Porn or other things that common sense says is bad. Unless thats your job.

Again though each agencyand department has its own rules. This isjust an idea ofhow ours read.Ask your agency. We also have a ethics number. We can call them or write them with these questions, if we have need. Inever have. If in doubt safe then sorry.

(A friend told me that they caught a lot ofpeople looking at porn in one office. They have the right to monitor any thing you do. They do it too. They have programs togive them a heads up. The people that did this were STUPID!The penalties can be very hard. Simple, be informed just dont do things or go places on the net that makes since not to go.I would also avoid anti goverment sights, unless that is your job, COMMON SENCE.)

Hope this helps RGDS. N B Careful:!

 

[Spaf]

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learning wrote:

Spaf- That is a good question with many answers.:X Here it is. It depends on your agency and department. Mine says knock your self out. Use it. Just do not let it stop you from working or affect your work.

Its about the same in our office.

I've heard that some offices have monitors, and some controls that can limit access to certain sites.

I try and limit personal use to breaks and lunch. Otherwise I stay with official business. Speaking of official business. A while back I was searching for a product to check and see if it was being used safely. Dam-it if I didn't accidentally hit one of those No-No sites. I bailed immediately, and then told my boss. She got a chuckle!

[I was searching for manufacturers of: pump jack scaffolding. I should of just tried scaffolding. Them first two words did me in. They ought to rename that type of scaffolding to something else!!!]

Our puters stay on 24 hours. I deleate everthing from the internet daily. I don't even read e-mail unless I'm dead sure I know who its from.

I can get into enough trouble without the computer.The government has been good to me and I ain't gonna punch holes in the boat.

Today I'm on sick leave, so you are not reading this from a govt puter.

Take care! Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Tom...Tsptalk says the that the market is in limbo..... I agree. I call it a muck-et: a market stuck in a trading range. The range is the higher high of December 1213 on the S&P. And, the lower low of 1163. However we have a higher low at 1184 that suggest we still have a somewhat bullish picture. Somewhat, can take either direction. So lets divide the 1213 and the 1184 and say that the 1200 mark on the S&P will seperate the bulls from the bears.
I'm inclined to remain neutral 50% safe funds (G or F) and 50% stocks (C-S-I) during the trading range situation. Once the market decides on a breakout, up or down through the trading range will confirm a direction. Most traders stay away from a trade ranging market and go to other funds. However with TSP we have limited funds, and the equity funds sadly are withinthat range Hedging with the I fund can off set C and S funds, however this is an allocation guess.
There is no reason to get upset at this point, because we are dealing with daily flutuations. Sometimes it is necessary to take a look at the weekly charts rather than the daily charts. The bottom line is to be cautious because we are in a trade ranging period where no clear direction for the market has been established. Tomorrow could be a completely different story. It's not the end of the world, just uncertainty.
Where is Marth Stewarts financial advisor :x

Rgds, and be informed! Spaf

 

[learning]

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Yea, I have never recieved a questionable E.mail. I have heard some in management have. They say they open them are surprised and do not forward. They say as long as they do not save forward or ask for it they are ok. It is the sender. Of course it is not a business or gov employee not much to do to the sender, I would only guess. Perhaps the gov could go at them through EEO if the reciever or agency took offense. Perhaps they have other laws. Point, is- I would not worry to much about e-mails recieved, (In my agency).

P.S. I know for a fact in my agency they have people and programs set up to watch what we do on the computer. They make sure we know. Funny, part is- I suppose they really need them.:l

 

[Guest]

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Dr_Dubious wrote:

First trading day of March has been up 6 of last 8 years. The rest of the week is about even on bullish or bearish.

Appears historic data does work. Draughts.Good for those on the correct side. Iwas on the short side. Got squeezed now looking to ridesome longs. That was a little costly in the brokerage account thou .Solid stops saves ya$ in the long run thou. If you are wrong bail, lick your wounds and get back in the ring. Also follow your own gut feeling (above is a good example - up 6 of last 8 years - those me some good odds). Draughts.

Strong new inflows filter in on the first day of trading.

 

[Spaf]

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Is there song something about "back on the range again". We could change a few words and rename it "Stuck in the trading range amore"!

1:37 March 1, S&Pchart attached. The bad news: we are still in a muck-et: market in trading range. The good news. at least we are in the upper portion and struggling like heck!

I calculate the range from (using chart numbers) 1163 to 1217. Possible 1184 could be a higher low and a level of support. But 1163 was the lower low of the correction.

As noted by the chart the PPO moving averages are crossing, and the CMF money flow is positive.

In charts there are no predictions, just past trend. WYS (what you see) may not be (what you get) WYG.

How did we get stuck in this trading range? And, when will get out? Today, tomorrow, next week, ? :%

 

[Guest]

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Do not know if these means much, but all three of the major indexes now have "sell" candlestick signals. Once again, the markets reactions are casino like to me.

Interesting at the big Business Climate Conference going on the CEOs are coming out in interviews saying how great things are; then you look at the insider selling stats and they are dumping their own shares. Not sure what that means??? Like South Korea and their "diversify" comment???

Another interesting day today. I am sweating bullets. Great market. Like a tick on a coon dog trying to suck some blood.

Not trying to be a dome sayer but I have NO idea why the market rallied today. When I am confused I tend to stay out of the way until some common sense starts peeking through. It is to hard to make capital back after you lose it if I want to gamble I will go to Vegas, not put my retirement account at risk.

 

[Spaf]

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Here goes Spaf and his charts again!

Why the market rallied today? Well! Today was a day of consolidation!

In the last two days each candlestick showed a reversal pattern. Monday had a red reversal and today had a white recersal.

Now, the chart again for the last three trading days is forming what appears to be a pennant. This is where the support and resistance lines converge to a point.

Generally, the pennant flys counter to the trend, which has been up, however this pennant is neutral. This is not a big requirement.

The keyis the breakout. If in the direction of the trend, then the trend up continues. if not, the up trend could be over. However, this pennant is near the top of the trading range, which hints of an evential breakout. This pennant suggests that selling pressure is diminishing and the market is prepared to test the zone of resistance, the 1213 level.

On charts WYS may not be WYG. [Caution] I would look for other confirmations too, not just charts. And remember that there is no breakout yet, just a possible signal.

Caution is still the better part of valor while in one of these trading ranges.

I'm not changing my allocation just because of one factor. I'm still neutral till I see a clear breakout.

Annuder chart of the S&P attached!

Rgds Spaf

 

[Guest]

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The first day of every month is up most times..............

 

[Dakota]

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MMYSpaf wrote:

Hey Chuck

Can You use the govt computer at work? Like during breaks!

That 25 G, C, S, I. seems pretty fair. I'll probably go to that tomorrow AM if things look good. Otherwise I'll scamper for the hanger. -Bars Open-

If You are going to be at work this PM. I got a Market Call site for You!

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/

Rgds Spaf

MY MONITOR WENT OUT so I borrowed one just for the night been having net withdrawals It went to sleep and didn't wake up nice to hear from you guys all ya'll gd luck

 

[Spaf]

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Dakota wrote:

MY MONITOR WENT OUT so I borrowed one just for the night been having net withdrawals It went to sleep and didn't wake up nice to hear from you guys all ya'll gd luck

Net withdrawls, that could be serious. Glad you found a monitor for it was too late!

Got a few for ya:

From the Help Desk:

Hi good afternoon, this is Martha, I can't print. Every time I try it says 'Can't find printer'. I've even lifted the printer and placed it in front of the monitor, but the computer still says he can't find it...

Customer: I have a huge problem. A friend has placed a screensaver on my computer, but every time I move the mouse, it disappears!

Helpdesk: How may I help you? Customer: I'm writing my first e-mail. Helpdesk: OK, and, what seems to be the problem? Customer: Well, I have the letter a, but how do I get the circle around it?

Feel better Chuck?
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Market Talk

Right now whatis needed, is a bucket of patience (big bucket, maybe)!

Whether it's limbo according to Tom, or what I refer to as a muck-et. We need to wait for a clear signal. We are still in the trading range. The AM market calls at 11:00 CTindicated a minus for the market. [Oh good grief!]

There were some good indicators, and even a pennant today. But the fact still places the market in the trading range ("just give me the facts mam").

Until a definite primary movement is reestablished,guarding funds and remaining neutral is the safe (conservative) way to go.

I agree with Dr_D on "if I want to gamble I will go to Vegas, not put my retirement account at risk".

Will just have to wait and see what tomorrow brings to the table.

Rgds Spaf