Market Talk

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I like that green on the chart.... to much red for to long....

We need a good follow though with volume ..... still looks like we
could drop more as this is a reaction to the drops we had...
dow 10550 looks like the point we want to break...

I have traded with Ed Downs for years and he is cautious about this.
What I like is his no emotions on trading . Trades with the market and not against it..
you can get his daily update on the dow free at.. http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp

here is todays report...
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]From prior commentary, "...This type of rally is typical after such an extensive period of selling. Typically, a reaction rally does not last long. That is, we will likely see another steep decline, especially if 10,400 is crossed to the downside..." [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow extended yesterday's reaction rally into a two-day advance today, as the index continues to pull-back after the recent overall decline. The Dow pulled back precisely to the 62% Retracement zone from the January 19th high to the January 24th lows, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Markets tend to reverse at key Fibonacci retracement areas; therefore, we may see another big decline lower in the near term. As long as the Dow stays below 10,550, another drop is very likely. The 15 Minute Chart shows the Dow has formed a clear lower trend line beneath the two-day rise. A downside break of the line at 10,480 will send the index into another tailspin. Watch this level tomorrow. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short Term Dow [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short term, the Dow has formed a tight range at the highs of the 5 Minute Chart from 10,490 to 10,520. Watch for a break from this range for direction at the Open tomorrow. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Medium Term Dow [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]In the medium term, we entered the market Long today at 10,525, but stopped out with a loss. No other trades were entered, and we are now out of the market. Watch 10,550 up, and 10,480 down tomorrow; using 20 point stops. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]NASDAQ & S&P [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The S&P and NASDAQ each trended higher today, gaining ground after the recent slide. However, each index continues to leave itself vulnerable to another decline. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Summary [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow continues to inch higher, as the index digests the recent decline. Another decline seems to be looming, so keep an eye on 10,480 tomorrow. A break here will signal further weakness, unless the Dow breaks above 10,550. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading! [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com
[/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com
[/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team [/font]
 
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happy i left some in I fund!:D



http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050126/world_forum_china_5.html

and:

Central banks 'shunning dollar'
Many of the world's central banks are starting to look to the euro to fill their currency reserves instead of the dollar, a survey suggests.

The poll carried out by Central Banking Publications found 39 nations of the 65 surveyed raising their euro holdings, with 29 cutting back on the US dollar.

The dollar's sharp fall in the face of huge deficits could be one cause of the switch, the report says.

The survey was sponsored by the UK's Royal Bank of Scotland.

Losing ground

The last three months of 2004 saw the dollar slip by 7% against the euro, taking it to repeated all-time lows of more than $1.30.

The US is running a budget deficit of close to $500bn a year, funded largely by China and Japan buying large amounts of US government bonds.

Some economists have suggested that the two could ease their purchases, making it more difficult for the US to support its borrowing.

The euro seems to have come of age
Central Banking Publications
Similarly, the current account - the difference between the amount of money going out of the US and coming in - is deeply in the red, the result largely of large trade deficits.

Both factors have helped to push the dollar lower. However, the falling dollar does mean that central bank holdings of dollar reserves are losing value.

"Generally, central banks' approach to reserve management is becoming much more active as they search for higher returns," said the authors of the report.

"The euro seems to have come of age."
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/business/4200811.stm
 
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The site's traffic seems to follow the market. We're in pullback mode. :)

traffic.png
 
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Everybody is still here watching from the pros and contemplating on what to do.

As for me, I am getting dizzy with the see saw I am seeing in stocks.
 
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teknobucks wrote:
this board got awful quite......
Thanks for the reminder - I've been going to tell you guys in stocks that I am really tickled for you !! :^

....that doesn't keep my stomach for aching cuz I haven't been there too! I can't be agressive and conservative at the same time!!!! :U- passive-agressive maybe ?? I feel sure if I jumped back in I would end up buying high and selling low .... so I'm sitting........!:end:



Enjoy your returns!
 
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"After further review" hehe

Can u tell the super bowl is coming 2 town!

I’m stepping back in a bit21% in each stock fund...balance G.

Tekno

 
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Looks like a good day for panic selling. :s And perhaps a great day for reentering the market. :^ What will Monday bring??? :?
 
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vectorman wrote:
Looks like a good day for panic selling. :s And perhaps a great day for reentering the market. :^ What will Monday bring??? :?
That's probably true since I capitulated :)
 
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Funny how some of you are jumping out while some of us are jumping in (with caution of course). Hope it all works out for everyone...

Pyriel
 
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pyriel wrote:
Funny how some of you are jumping out while some of us are jumping in (with caution of course). Hope it all works out for everyone...

Pyriel
my hunch is we rally big time next week or the world is coming to an END.....chances of world ending next week less than 5%....LOL;)
 
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the ramp up at the end of the day was a preview of coming attractions for next week....or possibly, God forbid a short squeeze to let the big guys exit with a bigger piece of singhed pie.

tekno

****the bright side is i have not spent any $$$$ on airfare and lodging in vegas....:shock:
 
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Who do you like in the Iraqi race? I hear they are down to 18,000 candidates.:) The one thing we worried about during our election was that there wouldn't be a winner declared as we saw in 2000. With 18,000 candidates it may take 6 months to determine a winner. I guess the real winner will be if the election actuallyends without a catastrophe. The market should like that BUT, I remember thinking the samething in July when we handed power over tothe Iraqi leaders. I, and many others, thought we'd see a relief rally but the market actually got clobbered in July.

Have a good weekend!
 
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vectorman wrote:
Looks like a good day for panic selling. :s And perhaps a great day for reentering the market. :^ What will Monday bring??? :?
If we are in a strong bull market, we should have seen enough pullback and Friday's action will be enough. This coming week should be interesting in that we are due for a continued rebound unless the market is waiting for a real selloff which we really haven't seen.
 
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