Market Talk

[Spaf]

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So far this year the market has had 9 down days and 5 up days. The last 3 days were unfortunately down. On the correction the down turn has been extended. The head fake rally to 1195 gave a daily fluctuation to a possible lower high, maybe, maybe not. It's too cloudy to tell what the primary movement of the market will be for the near future (bear or bull). However, the money flow indicators are in the minus column for the S&P.

Attachment: 6mo chart for the S&P

Rgds Spaf

 

[coolhand]

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Thanks for the new chart Spaf! Welcome back MT!

Okay, I'm ready for a bounce. We've been beat up enough this month already.

 

[pyriel]

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Same here but when? This week's outlook is so hazy that I don't know of anyone willing to speculate at this point.

 

[learning]

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I do not know or I would be a Billionnaire by now. With that said. I suspect the market will take a hit Thursday or Friday. I know, I know, with this market that is not much of a prediction.:l There is a reason. Iraq election. If it goes well the market may very easly take off. The election goes well people may say there is light at the end of the tunnel. Let us hope. It would be nice to have the bull back. If we do not get a turn around then the BEAR MAY COME INTO OUR CAMP.:X There is some money in bears though. If you can hunt and skin them.

 

[coolhand]

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Keep in mind that Iraq only has an interim government at the present. That interim government is not elected by the Iraqi people per se. Even if the election appears to go off well, that does not preclude the terrorists from continuing to battle. In fact I'm am more than certain they won't quit.

Once the new government is in placethey will almost certainly move to try and crush this opposition. How ugly might this be? Who knows. Point is Iraq needs to establishcontrol as quickly as possible in order to gain some measure of security for its people and its elected officials.

I think the current PM is the favorite to win, but I'm not sure. I've read that he is not happy with some of his neighbors at the moment (Syria and Iran). That's another situation that needs to be addressed.

This situation may continue to be volatile for some time after election. I hope that is not the case and I wish our troops well. We need them home as soon as possible. That would do a whole lot for our spirits and oureconomy.

 

[coolhand]

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something else to think about.

http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex---Dollar-on-backfoot-on-renewed-US-debt-financing-concerns_10062744.html

 

[learning]

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coolhand wrote:

"This situation may continue to be volatile for some time after election. I hope that is not the case and I wish our troops well. We need them home as soon as possible. That would do a whole lot for our spirits"

Ohh yes, I agree that there will be a lot of violence. I also believe that there may even be an increase in violence. What needs to happen though is an election that is somewhat believed to be a fair one by the world. Yes, Yes, I know there are long time friends like France, (cough, cough, choke), that only have the people in Iraq's borders best interest at heart, (hmmmmm, mumble under breath). (Nothing to do with the money they were and are afraid of losing. Sure, rights say it enough and some ...... person may even believe it.) Point is this. If a lot of the polls or a lot of ballots are destroyed, etc.... That could hurt the market.

As for our troops- Yes, Lord willing they will be home soon. It will never soon enough. I do suspect that we will have many over there for years to come. When they return it will lift my sprits.:^

 

[Skip]

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Here's Skip's Option...

The s fund "wilshire 4500"has been setting on the 33.33 fibonacci retracement level since 1/5 and has broken to the lower side.... this is using the Oct 04 low.. I think we will at least test the 50% retracement level at 472 "this would still be a bullish retracement if we don't go below50% level..... If we use the Aug04 low we would be looking at 467.33 at 50% level...

The sp500 has also broken the 33.33 level and the oct 50% level would be 1154
and the aug04 low it would be 1140 ....
I would be a buyer at the 1140 level... For the ws4500 I would be in at 440
100% g now and waiting.

I do believe we will go lower than 50% and that will be bearish....
Buy the support levels and sell the resistance is the plan for 05....
as we can make money in a down market also...
I tried to post a chart but my charts areover limitfor the upload.

JMHO
Skip

 

[tsptalk]

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Skip wrote:

I do believe we will go lower than 50% and that will be bearish....

Why do think it will go down so much Skip?

 

[teknobucks]

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well i'm taking my chips to the cashier......going 80 g 20 i.

nuthin bullish 2 say here.:s

http://tinyurl.com/683d7

these darn charts can say anything u want them 2.....look at this:

clear market longforecast.....

http://chart.tradesignal.com/chartheft/image.asp?id=1203315&w=950&h=550&t=1

bottom line is the street is bloody and we may very well see a lot more before thisis over!!!!



stated over the last few weeks why i was concerned, and have been told how wrong i was.:%

eluded to my escape plans from my long tsp positions and took no action.... my procrastination has cost me over 15k in jan 05.:*:dah::'

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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congrats to those hiding in the G!:u

skip and the others with large portions in the G......u were right on the money! :^

tekno

 

[Show-me]

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Part of my decision was based on the "many" great link's and articles you posted.

Robert Morrow's interview push me over the edge. Will be monitoring NBR more often.

Thank you Tekno.

 

[Rod]

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I'm not run'n for cover JUST YET... Still have some losses to recup. Good thing I'm a patient man, for today is going to be a GREEN one.

God Bless:^

 

[teknobucks]

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Show-me wrote:

Part of my decision was based on the "many" great link's and articles you posted.

Robert Morrow's interview push me over the edge. Will be monitoring NBR more often.

Thank you Tekno.

thanks 4 your support sir....mr. morrow is a very well balanced fellow indeed by wall st standards.

check this article out::s

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,145335,00.html

 

[teknobucks]

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Rod wrote:

I'm not run'n for cover JUST YET... Still have some losses to recup. Good thing I'm a patient man, for today is going to be a GREEN one.

God Bless:^

Good Luck Rod andI really mean this.......seemed 2 me today the markets shruged off oil and horrible debt and then have an orgy over earnings that beat by one or two pennies.

staying long over the last month has felt like peeing on a spark plug.....just can not take it anymore. do not mind 20% in the I andintend tobuy more I ifuncle buck grows any stronger.

tekno

******quite happy to be 80% geeee at the close today

 

[tsptalk]

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teknobucks wrote:

staying long over the last month has felt like peeing on a spark plug.....just can not take it anymore.

tekno,
That's the attitude we have talked about that is needed for the market to go up. Congratulations! You've capitulated!

Good luck,
Tom

 

[Wheels]

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Not that I'd want tekno to miss any gains but it sure would be nice if someone else was the poster boy for capitulation this time.

Dave

 

[teknobucks]

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Wheels wrote:

Not that I'd want tekno to miss any gains but it sure would be nice if someone else was the poster boy for capitulation this time.

Dave

Thanks Dave!

don't let that boston center job or the heavy snowfall up thereruin your good attitude bro.

kinda feel like Tom is : http://www.panlogic.net/yellowsnow/peeindex.html

on me

LOL

tekno

good luck to all

 

[teknobucks]

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****ok TSPTomI get it....just read your home page comments on the market.

I'm selling the C & S and your r the buyer.....yet I'm buying the I and you r selling it.......LMAO

hopeone of usgets lucky.:shock:

take care....

tekno

ps: normally when I sell the markets do roar....just don't tell anyone.:u

 

[Skip]

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tsptalk wrote:

Skip wrote:

I do believe we will go lower than 50% and that will be bearish....

Why do think it will go down so much Skip?

Looking at the retractment levels and the general weakness in the market itself...
Today was a positive ! But it was 40 points off the high and it sold off pretty much most of the day after the POP....
"[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Daily Chart shows the Dow may be forming the bearish "kiss of death" pattern, whereby the index breaks a lower trend line, then trades back up to the line before getting a steep sell-off. Should this pattern materialize, we could be in for another big drop.[/font] " need to see 10525 on the upside to be positive..fron Ed Downs"


Here is a comments from TC200, Worden report... Look at the breath of the market
almost even ups and down ! Not very strong.... We need a good followup day...
As always JMHO...
Skip
PS Can you increase the upload size of images ? I can't upload my charts from Omnitrader



[align=center]A Latent Force[/align]
A disappointing day always inflicts a harder blow to the psyche than a plain-vanilla, bad day. And today was somewhat disappointing from the point of view of a bull. The Nasdaq closed very near its low. The market had a good first half and spent the rest of the day sinking.

Looking at it on an intraday chart - say, a 15 minute chart -- it came off of an oversold condition as of yesterday's close. That gave it the energy to rally well for a while, before it started to roll over. But the early move broke the mini-downtrend and it looks to me as if it may test yesterday's close, and it is just possible it could pass that test.

We are nearing the Iraq election, and I continue to think it may mark the onset of a change of character. This may start before the event or after the event (if at all). But I am poised in a state of expectancy. Something important may happen.

Breadth was mostly positive today, but mediocre. The Leadership Index was 576 to 521, which is pretty much of a stalemate. For a day with most averages up enough to be respectable, I have to look at breadth as disappointing.

Another negative thought is that a day like this sometimes merely serves to slake an overbought condition and allow a downtrending market to continue down.

But a positive thought is that a skirmish like today's tends to show that there is a latent force looking for a chance to push this market up. -DW


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[align=center]ASSUMPTIONS[/align]

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[align=center]No changes in the Table.[/align]

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[align=center]Primary Trend: UP[/align]

[align=center]Intermediate Trend: UP[/align]

[align=center]Sub-Intermediate Trend: DOWN[/align]

[align=center]Short-term Trend: DOWN[/align]

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[align=center]The concepts of Primary, Intermediate and Minor trends emanate from Dow Theory.[/align]

[align=center]For a discussion of trends, refer to The Worden Report of December 9, 2004 and "Street Smart Chart Reading - Vol. 2"-Pages 35-39 by Don Worden.[/align]

[align=center]"The Technical Analysis Course" by Thomas Meyers is recommended as a broad-based introduction to technical analysis for beginners and as a handy reference guide for all traders.[/align]

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