Market Talk Page March 21-24

[blueskys4ever]

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I believe that this is a short trading week. Good Friday is a holiday.

Tuesday is FOMC, hold on to your hats!

I am still 100 percent G and liking my .01 gains.

 

[learning]

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Yes, This is a short trading week. Also you should mark this Tuesday on your calender. Three weeks from this Tuesday, the Fed will release it's minutes about the last meeting they had. Translation the meetingbefore the release on this Tuesday. It could be good or bad. They do this to help people decide what they think the fed will do in the future.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP Sunday March 20, 2005

Market weather.

-> http://www.businessweek.com
-> http://www.reuters.com
-> http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/PageOne.htm

Weather: The three horesemen (energy, inflation and rates) continue to keep the valley harvest trampled. Big Chief at FOMC do to yak Tuesday?

Charts, trends,tea leaves and etc.

-> http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-markets.asp

Charts [WYS may or may not be WYG]:Market moving sideways along lowerlevel of trading range. S&P closed Friday at 1189.65, down 0.9% for the week. CMY money flow in negative range. RSI strength below mid range. MACD bearish and crossed centerline crossover.

Trends: Attachment: S&P (3mo) chart ending Friday 18th. Added: 20dMA, 50dMA, RSI, and MACD.

Tea leaves: Caution [Thin ice area] market at lower lever of trading range.

Hold 'Em; Fold 'Em. Remarks: Folding to G-fund if Monday AM opens low.

 

[GGal]

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:dude: Now this is where I am confused. If you sell your stock, and move 100% to G, are'nt you selling at a loss so taking a loss?

Wouldn't it be better to just hold the stock - because it will go back up? Since it is not dollars that we are talking about, but stock shares?

This is the part that is really confusing the heck out of me on this website - it would seem to me that unless we all think that stock is going down and going to stay down we should just all hold on?????

Why am I having so much trouble grasping all of this!

Gawga

 

[blueskys4ever]

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If you are having trouble following the lingo, them perhaps you need to take a long-term approach until you become proficent. You will be less exposed to risk if you you do this.

Isuggest you take a college-level course in personal finance. I did this in 1985 and it has been a benefit ever since.

This is gambling with real dollars. And just like Black Jack, you would never belly up to the table without learning the game.

GOOD LUCK!

 

[Spaf]

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GeorgiaGal wrote:

:dude: Now this is where I am confused. If you sell your stock, and move 100% to G, are'nt you selling at a loss so taking a loss?

Wouldn't it be better to just hold the stock - because it will go back up? Since it is not dollars that we are talking about, but stock shares?

This is the part that is really confusing the heck out of me on this website - it would seem to me that unless we all think that stock is going down and going to stay down we should just all hold on?????

Why am I having so much trouble grasping all of this!

Gawga

It's called position trading. Moving to the G-fund tomorrow AM if the market is down will preserve capital.

To hold declining stock can be a disaster. There is no guarantee it's going back up [NASD 03/14/2000 High: 5013.488]. That arguement omits a critical element: time.
Stock shares change in dollar value, buy low, try and sell high.

As a restatement: Yes for some of us stocks will stay down, it's all in the perspective of time

Rule of thumb: never lose more than 5% in any one fund orover 2% of your total capital. If you do, step back and redo your strategy.

Rgds! Spaf

 

[Rolo]

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GeorgiaGal wrote:

- it would seem to me that unless we all think that stock is going down and going to stay down we should just all hold on?????

That is a valid strategy, and since I never sold my C shares, I am stuck with that strategy, heh.

Tom's strategy, for example, was to sell his C shares at what he thought would be their high for a while, then go to G (cash) and wait until C shares got cheaper or at their new low so he can buy more C shares.

The strategy is to buy on the run-ups and avoid the price-drops to beat the fund's own performance. It's kinda like making a sailboat go faster than the actual speed of the wind pushing it.

 

[pyriel]

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GeorgiaGal wrote:

:dude: Now this is where I am confused. If you sell your stock, and move 100% to G, are'nt you selling at a loss so taking a loss?

Wouldn't it be better to just hold the stock - because it will go back up? Since it is not dollars that we are talking about, but stock shares?

This is the part that is really confusing the heck out of me on this website - it would seem to me that unless we all think that stock is going down and going to stay down we should just all hold on?????

Why am I having so much trouble grasping all of this!

Gawga

Hello Ggal,

People are selling at a loss because they think that the market will go farther down. So they are selling to get out of losing more money. They will then wait until they see an opportunity to buy back in. Here is a good example:

If I buy 10 shares 2 days ago that is worth$1.00 each ($10.00 total). Yesterday itwent down to .75 cents. Today it goes down again to .50 cent.My sharesis now worth only $5.00 (10 (shares). Lets just say I sold off on today (.50) and protect it at the G fund. If the market goes down again to .25 cents tomorrowmy shares wouldhave been worth only $2.50. However since Isold off earlier, my share is still worth$5.00. Lets just sayI decided to buy back $5.00 worth of shares. I will now have 20 shares instead of 10 (.25 cents each). Lets also say the market gets better and the share price goes up to.50 cents per share. Now, my 20 shares isworth $10.00. If the market goes up again later to .75 cents. My 20 shares will now be worth $15.00 etc. etc. etc...

Now lets just say that I decided not to sell earlier. I will still have 10 shares and be back to $10.00 if the market goes back to $1.00 per share. This example is very vague but pretty much explains the concept on why some people are selling at a loss. They really don't want to sell at a loss (this is not idea why they are doing this), but they somehow sense that the market is not going to get any better and they want to start all over again and wait for another opportunity to buy low.

Hope this helps... Pyriel

 

[teknobucks]

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blueskys4ever wrote:

I believe that this is a short trading week. Good Friday is a holiday.

Tuesday is FOMC, hold on to your hats!

I am still 100 percent G and liking my .01 gains.

[size=As Jesse Livermore notes, the real money is made not in the trading, but in the sitting: letting the major move develop and having the patience to ‘be right and sit tight.’ ][/size]

This doesn’t mean blind buy and hold, and it certainly doesn’t mean passive acceptance of whatever unfolds with no logical response. It does mean having the foresight and conviction to see the dominating trend and ride it to the fullest, not growing impatient or throwing in the towel. If we see a correction in commodities or energy over the next few months, it will be an invitation to book profits on marginal positions… but it will also be an opportunity to add to core positions, with an eye for the long term.

do your own DD...c ya all in April

tekno

all g fund

 

[tsptalk]

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GeorgiaGal wrote:

:dude: Now this is where I am confused. If you sell your stock, and move 100% to G, are'nt you selling at a loss so taking a loss?

I know some people like to phrase it that way but I'm not a big believer in the "you don't take the loss until you sell" theory. That is only true for tax purposes in a taxable account.

For us, when you are in stock or bond funds and the market is going down, your account balance is going down, whether you sell or not. You can decide to stop the bleeding if you believe the market will continue to go down. This way the stock and/or bond funds can go down, but your balance does not.

Then as the other folks mentioned, if the market climate improves, you may havean opportunity to buy the funds at a lower price.

Now, you just have to know if the market is going to go up, or down.

 

[Spaf]

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March has been sort of a lame month sofar! As of March 1st the TSP funds were:

G=10.76 F=10.42 C=12.93 S=14.61 I=15.85.
And as ofFiday the 18th funds were:
G=10.78 F=10.37 C=12.72 S=14.38 I=15.83.

That G-fund is really cranking out them pennies!:^

Anyway unless Monday shows some change,:} I'll take some warm and fuzzy time in the G-fund.:zz Otherwise, I don't plan to be skating on thin ice around the lower levels of the trading range, unless I see some improvements in the market!

Rgds! and be careful!

Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Rats!.........Anotherpotential harvest ruined by the horsemen.

 

[blueskys4ever]

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Today is brought to you by the letter "P".

Preservation: as in capital preservation. This is why most people are selling today.

The others are just in a panic mode.

I may go back into equities on Thursday. Until then, I will ride the G train.

It is interesting that Industrials, Mid-caps, and Small-capswere all taking their turn in the trenches. In periods of rising inflation small-caps are usually affected first. And yet today, Industrials took the pounding. Must be oil and rates. Both of which, I don't see lowering in the near-term.

 

[Skip]

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oil and engery stocks took a little pull back after the long runups they had.... Of course you have
aig going lower and lower on the secc investigation and F with the explosion today..GM last week with their sell off"GM was up today"Paying 7% div now!! Thats how much of a sell off they had...

The only thing that held up the nas was a couple of mergers.. Tough time now for the stocks... you really got to pick the right ones .... Staying in G for awhile...



watch dow 10500 on the down side and 10615 on the up

Skip

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP The day Monday March 21st. 2005: closing

The Daily Wrap

Valley weather, Tea Leaves, and Yak.

Weather: The valley was covered with fog, and ranged by savage horsemen, again! Folks very nervious as horsemen continue to trample and burn harvests. Energy horseman raised oil cost to $57.46 :}. One TSP farmer was quoted as "".

Tea Leaves (charts): S&P closed dn :{-5.87 to 1183.78. This was -0.37 below:{ February H.L. of 1184.16; breaching 1st support level. CMF money flow slightly positive. RSI strength declining. MACD averages bearish.

Yak: Scampered to mountain with G-fund. Caution thin ice on underside of trading range. Big Chief at FOMC due to yak, yak tomorrow!

Rgds! and be careful! :? Spaf

 

[Show-me]

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WOW!!!:shock: Looks like the fed took the wind out of the markets sail. Ouch! Are traders panicing or what?

 

[grandma]

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...someone -tell me why I have not jumped ship yet... ? :s (other than not listening/heeding previous advice -)



:end: And I have read the end of the Book - !!!

I have to change my avatar - haven't got the hands spinning fast enuff.........

 

[Show-me]

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Someone school me on this. Market dives and the dollar climbs? Make any sense?:%

 

[The_Technician]

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Well we won't export as much with the dollar up, therefore we will make less profit from overseas sells....

Anybody correct me on this.....if I'm wrong

 

[Spaf]

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Show-me wrote:

Someone school me on this. Market dives and the dollar climbs? Make any sense?:%

The Fed raised rates by a quarter point as was widely expected, but inflation acceleration might force it to respond more aggressively, boosting the allure of the dollar to foreign investors.

Make sense?