Market Talk Page March 21-24

grandma · Mar 23, 2005

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Spaf wrote: Rule of thumb: never lose more than 5% in any one fund orover 2% of your total capital. If you do, step back and redo your strategy.

Yesterday's slice of the knifewas a sudden drop to below the 2%, yet left my C&S above the 5%, w/the C taking a larger portion of the losses.

So I am rethinking my strategy.Selling at a total loss of .52/share seems unthinkable, losing more capital is irresponsible.

sobeit.. Big sign by a curve in the highway. In big letters "Caution sign has sharp edges" in small letters "Danger bridge is out

doesn't matter - I missed the curve......!!

Spaf · Mar 23, 2005

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The Technician wrote:

I'd be careful playing the oil price bubble right now Spaf..:s.....the real version is the oil price is high

Na! I ain't playing nuttin with the TSP funds. Too many traps and pits to fall in, and then you can't get out for 1-2 days. Na, not worth the risk!

Lets have another round bartender!:^

Spaf · Mar 23, 2005

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Maybe someone should call an ambulance, the market is going into convulsions. Is there a doctor on your site Tom?

Brewnet · Mar 23, 2005

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Spaf wrote:

Maybe someone should call an ambulance, the market is going into convulsions. Is there a doctor on your site Tom?

Dr. Dubious....... code blue :s

Show-me · Mar 23, 2005

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Explosion Rocks BP Texas City Refinery
[size=-1]Reuters- 31 minutes ago[/size]
[size=-1]TEXAS CITY, Texas (Reuters) - An explosion rocked BP's huge refinery in Texas City, Texas, on Wednesday, the company said, and local television reported that four people were killed in the blast. Another 10 ... [/size]

More good news, one of my biggest fears. This could have an effect.

Skip · Mar 23, 2005

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Show-me wrote:

Explosion Rocks BP Texas City Refinery
[size=-1]Reuters- 31 minutes ago[/size]
[size=-1]TEXAS CITY, Texas (Reuters) - An explosion rocked BP's huge refinery in Texas City, Texas, on Wednesday, the company said, and local television reported that four people were killed in the blast. Another 10 ... [/size]

More good news, one of my biggest fears. This could have an effect.

Oil stocks willfly Thursday... your looking at 250+ gas I hope it didn't damage their capacity to produce gas... Or we are in trouble with the summer coming...we only have 4 refineries in US....

Skip

Spaf · Mar 23, 2005

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The Kingdom of TSPThe day ofWednesday March 23rd. 2005: closing

The Daily Wrap

Valley weather, Tea Leaves, and Yak.

Weather: Inflation horseman curbed harvest. Consumer prices now a worry. Up 0.4% in Feb (high energy costs). One TSP farmer was quoted as"

inflation up 0.3% last month!".

Tea Leaves (charts): S&P closed up:}+0.82 to 1172.53. CMF money flow near 0.0. RSI strength declining, near oversold, losses winning. MACD averages bearish.

Yak:Caution--Market train ran off tracks, hasmomentarily stopped sliding.

Show-me · Mar 23, 2005

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AP
TEXAS CITY, TexasMar 23, 2005 —An explosion rocked a BP oil refinery Wednesday, killing at least 14 people, injuring more than 100, and sending flames and black smoke billowing into the sky, authorities said.

"It's my deep regret that we believe we have 14 losses of life," site director Don Parus said.

Workers were searching through rubble for survivors or bodies. The cause of the blast was not immediately known. Most of the injured suffered broken bones, cuts, concussions and other injuries.

The blast left a gapping hole in the earth, mangled nearby offices, and covered cars and trucks in an employee parking lot with ash and chunks of charred metal. Witnesses said the blast was felt as far away as five miles.

Plant worker Charles Gregory said he and several co-workers were inside a trailer getting ready to clean a tank when the floor started rumbling around 1:30 p.m.

"It was real scary," he said. "Have you ever heard the thunder real loud? It was like 10 times that."

Going to be an interesting morning.

Hope I'm wrong again. BP should take a hit for this.

Skip · Mar 23, 2005

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BP take a hit... no way .... we will at the gas pumps....

Oil stocks will move higher as gas prices will fly.... Fill up tonight....

Skip

Spaf · Mar 24, 2005

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Show-me wrote:

AP
TEXAS CITY, TexasMar 23, 2005 —An explosion rocked a BP oil refinery

Going to be an interesting morning. Hope I'm wrong again. BP should take a hit for this.

We got it. Will see what happened!

Show-me · Mar 24, 2005

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Spaf wrote:

Show-me wrote:

AP
TEXAS CITY, TexasMar 23, 2005 —An explosion rocked a BP oil refinery

Going to be an interesting morning. Hope I'm wrong again. BP should take a hit for this.

Click to expand...

We got it. Will see what happened!

Sorry.

Spaf · Mar 24, 2005

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The Kingdom of TSPThe day ofThursday March 24th. 2005: closing

The Daily Wrap

Valley weather, Tea Leaves, and Yak.

Weather: Sun came out briefly today, but ended somewhat cloudy. No horsemen seen today.

Tea Leaves (charts): S&P closed dn :{-1.11 to 1171.42. CMF money flow in minus territory. RSI strength declining, near oversold, losses winning. MACD averages bearish. Market buyers lost control to sellers.

Yak:Caution--Marketon seasaw with energy.

Rgds! and be careful!

Spaf

Gritz · Mar 24, 2005

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For you Techno traders, does anyone put any emphasis on stochastics and the market, or more particularly, the s&p 500 index? If so, how much weight do you give it and if not, why? I'm trying to reeducate myself on this methodand how it might help with seeing where the market is going or am I out to lunch?

Spaf · Mar 24, 2005

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Gritz wrote:

For you Techno traders, does anyone put any emphasis on stochastics and the market, or more particularly, the s&p 500 index?

Gritz.. I see it as a matter of preference, I like the MACD! Most funds I have and the TSP C-fund track alongside the S&P. If you get a chance see:

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/MarketAnalysis/dowtheory1.html

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/site_map.htm

Rgds!

Spaf

Spaf · Mar 25, 2005

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The Kingdom of TSPThe day ofFridayMarch 25th. 2005

SPAF> .... Going home for a week... Will be off computer/site.... See U about 31st or 1st.

Have a happy Easter, and take care!

Attachment: S&P as of Thursday 03-24-05

Regds!

Spaf

Gritz · Mar 25, 2005

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Thanks Spaf for the links :!; I'll digest what I can, the Incredible Charts is a mouth full . Hope you have a great time off!

tspgo_com · Mar 25, 2005

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A good example of what not to do and offailing to practice what one preaches.

Disregarding Action Signals.

My last Interfund transfer was based purely on feelings. There was not a buy signal and I bought.Penalty: down 27 points in C and 36 in S from the entry point. That's a big penalty for disobeying the rule.

What's ahead: Back to the drawing board. C and S should be breaking out of the descending parabolic channel (brown lines) in the very near future. Then C and S will go back up (fast) to hit the triangle upperline (top black line). Then, down the drain it goes again (not shown).

Call: if you are not invested wait for a buy signal in C, S, I, and F.

If you made a premature IFT: Hold

Good luck

Sorry, missed the graph. Here it is. Thank you Rolo.

learning · Mar 26, 2005

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You do not realize any loss until you do a transfer. So IF you see the market going back up and it always has, hold on. You may have to wait years some time

, but, it always has gone back up. If you are sure there is going to be more bleeding and can avoid and get back in to ride it up, do it. (We call those people multi-billionairs. LOL)

One Thing I have noticed. When the C fund hardly moves or even takes a hit and the S Fund goes way up a correction is due. It could be the C is about to go up or the S will take a hit soon. It appears to me that way. It also works the other way around as well. So this may be a sign to change funds out of one into the other or all the way out of both. Problem is you do not always get the chance to do the transfer.

Correct me if I am wrong please. The C fund follows for the most part the S&P 500. The S fund follows the Russel 2000 for the most part. I mostly watch the S&P as watching to much part time and you get nothing.

Rolo · Mar 26, 2005

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learning wrote:

The C fund follows for the most part the S&P 500. The S fund follows the Russel 2000 for the most part.

1. Yes.

2. It is similar; S tracks Wilshire 4500 (DWCP).

learning · Mar 26, 2005

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Rolo wrote:

1. Yes.

2. It is similar; S tracks Wilshire 4500 (DWCP).

Thanks

.

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