Market Talk / June 11 - 17

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Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
June 14, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Lube up, but under 70. Socks come out of wash a little brighter.
Con-Yak..................................Higher rates expected as PCE index presses 2.1%

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1230.04, up +6.35
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.028, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-14.790, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........6.32, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 33.27 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................69.92, up 0.33
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Green [doodles +-, Lube < 70]

Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: NA. Trail: 1224.
 
tsptalk said:
Futures are actually up.

I admit I was not too impressed with the inability of the market to hold gains earlier, but the close was impressive. Perhaps just a short covering rally. Will Japan see this strength and give us a little rally to follow through with yesterday's weak attempt? We'll see.
Click to expand...

I forgot the Beige Book was released at 3pm today. That is all ways good for a kick save. Markets after 2 were looking grim until that release.

I believe the Japanese are not going to buy "this rally".

Should be interesting.
 
Wizard said:
I forgot the Beige Book was released at 3pm today. That is all ways good for a kick save. Markets after 2 were looking grim until that release.

I believe the Japanese are not going to buy "this rally".

Should be interesting.
Click to expand...

It was actually released at 2pm. So, I don't know if the positive market reaction in the last hour was due to it. Perhaps something "bigger", or at least we can hope.
 
Rod said:
It was actually released at 2pm. So, I don't know if the positive market reaction in the last hour was due to it. Perhaps something "bigger", or at least we can hope.
Click to expand...

Doesn't it seem like EVERY last hour brings something new and exciting now-a-days? :p

I don't know how many times over the last month I've thought about posting the question, "What the hell was THAT?!?"

Never bothered since I'm pretty sure nobody knows. :D
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=af9t.HEiFYCY

Japan's 10-Year Bonds Drop, Halting 6-Day Rally, as Stocks Gain
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's 10-year government bonds fell, halting a six-day advance, as gains in stocks cut demand for debt securities with yields near an 11-week low.

The drop in bonds ended the longest rally since December 2003. Demand for debt had increased after a global slump in stocks sent the Nikkei 225 Stock Average two days ago to its biggest point loss since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.



------------------------------------------------------------------------Japanese Stocks Rise, Led by Advantest, Toyota, Mitsubishi UFJ
June 15 (Bloomberg
Shares of Japan's biggest companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. also got a boost, following a rebound in U.S. stocks from a seven-month low, on speculation that a global rout in equities may be at an end. U.S. indexes climbed after a report showing inflation in the world's biggest economy accelerated in May failed to dim prospects for profit growth.
 
Japan seems to be reacting positively early on (up about 1.6%), but we know that can turn on a dime.
 
Some Market Comments:

We could be setting up for a tradeable bounce, but buyers will not be quick to step back in.

New longs are still very risky!!

Let's see how much follow through we get tomorrow, plenty of pain is still possible here.

We need to make some Money !!! ( See file)

The World Markets have lost over 2 Trillion since the sell-off started.
Yes, I said 2 Trillion.

Some TA's I get are still shorting and the ones in cash will not give new buy signals until we can close above 1250 on the S&P and around 1560 on the NDX.

I still think that the bottom will stay around the 1200's, if not very close the rest of the year. We will test these lows a few times as we head in to October. Buy and old folks will be happy they added shares at these prices. However, we still run a risk of a big panic sell-off into the mid 1100's. That would be very bad for longs and a great buying op !!!!

Remember, in Vanguard accounts only 2 moves a year. No trading like we do here at TSP Talk. If you get out of a Fund you can't get back in for 60 days.

Birchtree will see the S&P above 1350 by Dec 31.... But it will be a crazy ride getting there.

The Fed will do one more and tell us they are done in this cycle for now. Data dependent going forward.

The Bears are in control for the First Time in years. Let them have their day they have earned it after many years in the cave.

I know, I know, its hard to be humble, but we must. After all they did call this correction!!! Most of us just would not listen! So lets play nice.

We must give Tom a pat on the back!! He called the sell-off and was patience before buying!

NO, NO, NO, this is not the start of a new Bear Market! It's getting toward the end of a Bull Market and this is a Healthy correction. Up over around 60%..

""Buyers have been hurt and will not come back quickly!"" We have a rough summer ahead, but will get some tradeable rallies!!

This rally looks weak and could turn back down!!! Football and Oddball are long!!

As we make new highs the Bears will not believe it. Just as many Bulls stayed long going down, the Bears will give us the money back on the way up.

I'm not a Bear or a Bull I just want to make money. However, I think the longer term trend will remain up!!!

All of the above are my personal opinions based on data I receive from several professional services. I get Bears and Bulls to stay open minded. Both have very convicing points about going forward.

I will not debate on the board these opinions. After-all that's all they are.

NO-ONE, NO-ONE, NO-ONE KNOWS WHAT MR. MARKET WILL DO. If they did do you really think they would Post Here. They would have wealth beyond belief!! So why debate something that YOU or THEY COULDN'T POSSIBLY KNOW! Just state it's your opinion and play nice.

BE HUMBLE WHEN YOU ARE CORRECT. FOLKS COULD BE LOSING HARD EARNED MONEY!!!

Take Care!!!

Birchtree, Please come back I miss your posts!!

Good trading/investing!!!
 
Last edited:
Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Flag Day Brings out the Buyers
June 14th was Flag Day in the US and it brought the buyers out of their bunkers as the bear beat a retreat. Some gauges of strength showed that an underlying current of buying support does still exist. For instance, Dow Industrials' buyers were able to muster enough strength to send that average up as it retraced a hundred points of the decline. Other indices also gained back some lost ground, especially the "lead dog" indices (Semiconductors and NASDAQ-100), although the gains were subpar compared with historical rebounds. If the bulls can muster the strength to continue the rally on Thursday -- and they probably can, at least initially -- we will see just how important this much-anticipated bottom really was.

Our OEX option numbers were probably distorted by put holders cashing in their winnings. They showed four times as much money was transacted in puts than calls. Certainly, there were a lot of winners among the put buyers this month. Otherwise, that might be interpreted as a very bullish number.

Some say the rally was caused by short-covering and expect the bears to re-sell on the rally. Others say that the decline was overdone from the very start and the rally will send the market back to its old highs since the economy is in fine shape. Probably the weakness in the US Dollar is a key factor which stabilized stocks on Wednesday, so keep an eye on the currency on Thursday. A cheaper US Dollar, although it cheapens all things priced in dollars, does lift stock prices in this global market meltdown and makes US securities more attractive to foreigners.

Traders will be especially interested in seeing a couple of short term charts in tonight's Subscriber's Notes (see link below) as they show significant trendlines of resistance to watch in Thursday's trading. If the market rally gets turned back by those trendlines, new lows are likely, while breaking through those resistance lines would be very bullish short term.




http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
 
robo said:
We must give Tom a pat on the back!! He called the sell-off and was patience before buying!
Click to expand...

HEAR! HEAR!:cool:

He's too humble to toot his own horn, so we'll do it for him.:)

He's also wise. He knows Mr. Market can and will turn on a dime.
 
Jun 15 08:30 Initial Claims 06/10 330K 320K 302K
Jun 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jun 17.0 11.0 12.4
Jun 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Apr NA NA $69.8B
Jun 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization May 82.0% 82.0% 81.9%
Jun 15 09:15 Industrial Production May 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
Jun 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jun 12.5 11.0 14.4
Jun 16 08:30 Current Account Q1 $220.0B $223.0B -$224.9B
Jun 16 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jun 80.0 79.0 79.1

Week of June 19 - June 24
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 20 08:30 Building Permits May NA 1961K 1973K
Jun 20 08:30 Housing Starts May NA 1860K 1849K
Jun 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/16 NA NA -980K
Jun 22 08:30 Initial Claims 06/17 NA NA NA
Jun 22 10:00 Leading Indicators May NA -0.4% -0.1%
Jun 23 08:30 Durable Orders May NA 1.0% -4.4%
 
It could be a wild afternoon again as several Fed officials are back out with Boston's Minehan, Gov Kroszner & chief Bernanke at 1:45.

Think the entire summer is going to be like this? If the goal is to buy low, do you think this is a good jump in point and just hold ?


How many more shopping days until Christmas
 
I like what I see this morning: Nikkei up 1.13%, Dow up over 100 points yesterday, Dollar and gold down just a fraction. I hope this "floor" holds, like Tom, I'm holding some back, but I like what I see.
 
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