Market Talk / June 11 - 17

[Rod]

If this headline was not so sad it would be funny:

Stocks Bounce After Inflation Data
AP - Stocks bounced higher Wednesday after two weeks of losses wiped out the year's gains in every major index. Investors shrugged off a higher reading on inflation that almost guaranteed another Federal Reserve interest rate increase.

:worried: Anyone that is buying at these levels are going to be unhappy little campers.

LUV the avatar. It speaks volumes.

Yeah, perhaps the pause will come after August's meeting.

They might as well just raise it the next meet by 1/2 point.

Bloomberg was talking about the lag time of 6 months- 1 year it takes for the the hikes to affect the economy Has the fed over done it?

Even if Bernanke and his colleagues are correct in their forecast and economic activity does slow down visibly in the months ahead there is no way of knowing whether the interest rate target is at the "right" level. There is the possibility that the federal funds rate target of 5% may turn out to be far too high. The Fed might keep the 5% federal funds rate target for a reasonable period of time before discovering that economic activity is falling rather fast. This in turn means that to defend the 5% federal funds rate target — as a result of a falling demand for federal funds due to weakening economic activity — the US central bank will be forced to withdraw money from the economy. By acting this way, the Fed runs the risk of draining liquidity, thus setting in motion an economic bust.

http://www.mises.org/story/2177

God Bless

 

[Wizard]

Look at the bank stocks especially the lenders they are getting gutted.

The financial sector makes up 30% of the S&P 500 - they will drag it down.

Red close? :embarrest:

Wow, I am shocked.

 

[Wizard]

Yeah, perhaps the pause will come after August's meeting.

Study what happened in the stock markets in the summer of 2000 then check back in with me.

 

[Rod]

Wow, I am shocked.

The day is not over yet...

 

[Wizard]

The day is not over yet...

Average down? Buy the dip? It will come back?

You are killing people on this board.

 

[Rod]

Study what happened in the stock markets in the summer of 2000 then check back in with me.

Past performance is no indication of future returns.

 

[Rod]

Average down? Buy the dip? It will come back?

You are killing people on this board.

Everyone is "in" at their own risk.

And if you continue to "yell and cuss", I will continue to edit your posts.

 

[Wizard]

Past performance is no indication of future returns.

 

[Wizard]

Everyone is "in" at their own risk.

And if you continue to "yell and cuss", I will continue to edit your posts.

Enjoy the power trip. You are useless noise to me.

 

[Rod]

Enjoy the power trip. You are useless noise to me.

It's not a power trip.

It's called "enforcing the rules", so we can have a "clean" forum.

 

[Wizard]

It's not a power trip.

It's called "enforcing the rules", so we can have a "clean" forum.

Like I said:

*Watch your language in general, though a bit of occasional adult language is understood, though not encouraged.

Enjoy the power trip. You are enforcing your rules not the owner of this board.

 

[Rod]

Like I said:

*Watch your language in general, though a bit of occasional adult language is understood, though not encouraged.

Enjoy the power trip. You are enforcing your rules not the owner of this board.

When that language involves the disparaging of another member, it IS NOT allowed.

Understood?

 

[FundSurfer]

S&P underpriced by 12%.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...6-14_17-48-29_N14246691&type=comktNews&rpc=44

 

[Wizard]

When that language involves the disparaging of another member, it IS NOT allowed.

Understood?

Especially when it is directed at you, right?

You have a great ability to tap dance out of any situation and twist it around. I have learned to avoid people like you and I will from now on.

 

[Wizard]

Re: S&P underpriced by 12%.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...6-14_17-48-29_N14246691&type=comktNews&rpc=44

She does not give predications on the NASDAQ anymore. LOL.

 

[FundSurfer]

Irving Fisher was one of America's greatest mathematical economists and one of the clearest economics writers of all time. He had the intellect to use mathematics in virtually all his theories and the good sense to introduce it only after he had clearly explained the central principles in words. And he explained very well. Fisher's Theory of Interest is written so clearly that graduate economics students, who still study it today, often find that they can read—and understand—half the book in one sitting. With other writings in technical economics, this is unheard of.

Although he damaged his reputation by insisting throughout the Great Depression that recovery was imminent, contemporary economic models of interest and capital are based on Fisherian principles. Similarly, monetarism is founded on Fisher's principles of money and prices.

____________

Fisher was ultimately right.

 

[Rod]

The day is not over yet...

NOW it's over.

 

[Wizard]

NOW it's over.

Nice call. But not a good sign the DOW is leading.

Underneath the surface:
NYSE NASDAQ
New Hi's 15 28
New Lo's 263 236

Tomorrow is going to be brutal. The internals are horrible.

The after hours all ready have the SPX, QQQQ, NDX, etc, etc in the red.

Funny how that works. There is no PPT?

 

[Wizard]

1 QQQQ NM 1,316,094 37.6000 16:30:12.7 172 -0.0300 -0.08
2 SPY AM 647,408 123.5200 16:30:42.6 123 -0.0900 -0.07
3 IWM AM 446,385 67.4100 16:14:51.7 54 +0.0400 +0.06
4 MDY AM 38,757 131.6300 16:11:29.4 20 +0.0200 +0.02
5 DIA AM 19,610 108.4000 16:25:31.4 67 -0.2200 -0.20
6 XLF AM 11,300 31.4500 16:03:23.6 8 -0.0600 -0.19
7 IWO AM 10,200 68.7700 16:01:53.3 11 -0.0100 -0.01
8 SMH AM 8,600 32.3200 16:19:07.8 45 +0.0600 +0.19
9 IVV AM 6,000 123.5800 16:01:04.6 2 0.0000 0.00
10 XLE AM 6,000 51.5600 16:27:36.3 39 +0.0800 +0.16
11 XLU AM 1,800 31.5000 16:25:12.0 11 -0.4100 -1.28
12 IJH AM 1,000 72.0800 16:07:45.5 2 -0.0100 -0.01
13 IWB AM 700 66.9500 16:01:22.5 4 +0.0100 +0.01
14 XLP AM 500 23.5900 16:09:45.1 4 -0.0700 -0.30
15 XLV AM 453 30.1700 16:03:19.5 7 +0.0800 +0.27
16 XLK AM 300 19.6700 16:13:06.4 16 -0.0500 -0.25
17 DSV AM 100 62.1000 16:00:00.2 5 -0.0200 -0.03
18 XLI AM 100 32.5200 16:09:37.4 4 -0.0900 -0.28
19 IWS AM 2 126.5200 16:08:28.7 1 -0.3500 -0.28

Strong close yet the major indexes go immediately red in the AHs? Hmm.

 

[tsptalk]

Futures are actually up.

I admit I was not too impressed with the inability of the market to hold gains earlier, but the close was impressive. Perhaps just a short covering rally. Will Japan see this strength and give us a little rally to follow through with yesterday's weak attempt? We'll see.