Market Talk / Feb. 26 - Mar. 4

[Wizard]

Still over the debt ceiling:

03/01/2006 $8,269,768,312,946.41

With interest rates moving up this will be a tad more expensive to service.

Bullish!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Wizard]

INTEL WARNS FIRST-QUARTER SALES WILL MISS FORECASTS

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/default.asp?siteid=&avatar=seen&dist=ctmw

Nope that is not an indicator of a slowdown. No signs anywhere, move along

 

[Wizard]

Give everything from yesterday back.

Only a fool would be long in front of the ISM report tomorrow.

They sold it off right at the premarket open.

Wow. Much red. To bad we are stuck in TSP.

 

[Birchtree]

So long dear AKS

The economy may slow in 2006, but that doesn't necessarily mean bad new for stocks. Slower growth could be a boon as investors lose their fear that a sharp downturn or meddlesome inflation is on the way. Sometimes a moderate economy can actually extend the amount of time that the expansion can continue. Optimisim about the economy is what drove the fourth-quarter stock market rally that began in late October.

The ISM services index rose to 60.1 in Feb from 56.8 in Jan, well above the median forecast for a rise to 58.0. The survey's prices paid index fell to 64.8 from 67.2 in Jan, jobs rose to 58.1 from 51.1 and new orders rose to 56.2 from 56.0 - not too slow in my book.

AKS gave me a better than $10K pop today - now I'll have to cry myself to sleep and hope another suiter comes along with an even better offer. Just another correction day to confuse everybody. Next week will probably begin the real test of fortitude.

 

[Wizard]

jobs rose to 58.1 from 51.1

Funny how the employment reports have been missing by half month after month.

 

[FundSurfer]

INTEL WARNS FIRST-QUARTER SALES WILL MISS FORECASTS

Not really surprising. People are beginning to realize that it isn't all bad if it doesn't say intel. Their competition has a good product much cheaper. This is being spun as a company slow down that was over due not an overall industry slow down, although computer sales are slowing. I don't think sales are slowing because of the economy though.

 

[Birchtree]

15 is the current number

We now have the 15th straight quarter of double digit earnings increases in the SPX - friends this has never been done before. Don't you just know there is something good approaching. I'll just have to be patient and wait to see what the possibilities are - meantime the price patterns lately have been consistently moving sidways trying to work off overbought conditions. The internals currently are the strongest in history and after almost three years, show no signs of letting up. It definitely feels like a center point of an Elliott third wave and is in progress of getting stronger - not a wave 5 ending. Count me in as more BULLISH than ever - admire these bull head fakes.

 

[Birchtree]

Don't step on my blue suede bear paws

If one looks at a graph of the NYSE cumulative composite advance/decline line for 2005/2006, there is no distributional top forming yet, the trend line indicates breadth continues to lead price. Just remember that bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gunshy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. Sure seems to be working that way for the choir singers.

The AAII survey has reflected bearishness toward the equity market at a time when the DJIA has risen to new recovery highs. That could lead a renewed confidence by individual investors that the equity markets will rally further. The 25-day CBOE PUT/CALL ratio recently reached a high of 83%, which supports that short term view. The put/call ratio is used as a contrary indicator: a low reading is bearish and a high reading is bullish. The S&P Financials index has made a new all-time high recently, and financials represent 21% of the market. It's good to see that the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment survey has had a bearish reading, which has generated a short-term bullish contrarian reading. That darn A/D line is not diverting, and it's very rare the price will top without A/D divergence.

Dennis - your friendly bullmeister waiting on the megabull trend.

 

[JOVARN]

Dennis - your friendly bullmeister waiting on the megabull trend.
________________________________________________________________
We are all waiting for the megabull trend to occure, I just dont think its happening now with oil at $63/ and Russia and Iran talks falling apart and all the other Bear news. I admire your courage to ride out this storm.

I actually did a projection on a buy and hold vs doing what I have been for for the past 3 months.
Had I B&H in the I fund I would have been up an additional +1.65%
S fund (.85%)
C fund (4.9%) seems high
This is from 11/29/05 to present

FundSurfer gave me some ideas to look further at regarding some of the big guns on the thread.

 

[Spaf]

Closing

Thanks for all the good market talk. My G-Fund matress thanks you!
See U all next week!

Spaf