Market Talk / Feb. 26 - Mar. 4

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
Feb. 26, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ The S&P500 is still range bound, close to previous highs. The market seems to be resilient, but the momentum might be lacking. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator [$NYMO] closed Friday at 14.74, a low buy range, where it has been ranging from +25 to -25 (short periods of buying and selling) since mid January. Without a major catalysts the probability for an upside breakout may not be successful, and could result in a bull trap.
Other Yak.............. Oil seems to be staying around the $61 level. However, Geopolitical risks also seem to be escalating, and some overbought conditions could place stocks in a area vulnerable to a pullback.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1289.43, up +2.19 for the week.
Money flow............ +0.124, decreasing.
Averages............... +4.71, increasing.
Slow STO.............. +89.63, increasing.
Overbought/sold...... [70] 58.3 [30]
Stops.................... NA.
Chart.................... 6mo., 50dMA, MACD, RSI (Attached).

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 62.91, up +1.62 for the week.
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff...... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position.................. 100G.
TSP Ended: G=11.23 F=10.69 C=14.04 S=17.31 I=18.60
1----Week: G=11.22 F=10.69 C=14.01 S=17.18 I=18.29
2---Weeks: G=11.21 F=10.65 C=13.78 S=16.94 I=18.28
3---Weeks: G=11.20 F=10.67 C=13.74 S=17.12 I=18.42

 

[SkyPilot]

Russia and Iran make progress on uranium agreement!

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/3686458.html

 

[Wizard]

We discussed about two weeks ago the debt owed by the U.S. taxpayer.

$75,000,000,000,000: U.S. Govt. unfunded liabilities; social security, etc.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-4677.htm

That is $75T. Divide by 295M and that is your share.

Our GDP is 11.2T. How much of that will be used to go towards servicing the interest owed on the 75T? Interesting times.

Bulllish!

 

[Fivetears]

Understanding the Kingdom of TSP.

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
Feb. 26, 2006​

Spaf - 2 Q's.
1. Do you have a link that describes the meaning of all this information on your post? I read something about the "four horseman" somewhere recently; saw a picture too. There must be more.
2. How do you figure what an "overbought" market is, and what an "oversold" market is? I'm just trying to understand the factor(s) that determine these two market states.

Thanks.
Brian.

 

[Wizard]

Now 22 ports:

allow the Dubai government effectively to take over control of container and stevedore operations in 22 U.S. ports
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=48998:(

 

[robo]

How Carl Swenlin determines Short-Term Overbought

Fivetears,

The link below is an article by by Carl Swenlin. Carl Swenlin is an excellent TA... At the bottom of the article he explains his results, and there is another link to see how he comes to the overbought conditions. Hope it helps.

TA = Basically a bunch of Nerds using computer programs. Many of them are Mathematicians or Engineers and they are trying to see if they can identify Trends in the Market. But since the advancement of computer software/hardware it's pretty easy to track this stuff. Getting it right and making money is the hard part...

Just remember the Market can still go up when its overbought... It's very hard to predict a TOP!!! Notice on Spaf's chart we have been touching overbought for awhile.

Spaf,

Hope you don't mind me adding my 2 cents in about overbought. The question was for you...


http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/060217_overbought.html

 

[Spaf]

References

Fivetears,
Wizard,

The indicators and stuff are in the TSP Talk forum: TSP Strategies - Technical Analysis. They are from: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/site_map.htm

Four Horsemen of the apocalypse - financial:

Crisis...............Horsemen .....Horses
Inflation ...........Inflate.............Gouge
Energy..............Krude..............Fillerup
Interest Rates ...Rats.............. Slowdown
Earnings ...........Earnie ............Slump

Rgds............ ..............Spaf

 

[Greg]

That is $75T. Divide by 295M and that is your share.

$254,237

 

[Wizard]

$254,237

Thanks Greg. $254,237 owed by every American.

That pretty much wipes out of our supposed "record networth".

Balance sheet looks great if you do not factor in your debts.

Once the "paper gain" home equities are wiped out because the fed went one to many - things will get interesting in spin land.

 

[Rod]

Bulls-n-Bears

"CNN" is bullish:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/24/markets/sun_lookahead/index.htm


While "Fox" is bearish:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,186102,00.html

Gotta love it

 

[Wizard]

Saudi Forces Kill Five Terror Suspects
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/02/27/D8G1BRHG0.html


16 Charged in Alleged Philippine Coup Plot
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/02/27/D8G1C8V00.html


29 Killed in Iraq; Blasts Rattle Baghdad
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/02/27/D8G1BB184.html


Rocky start for new Palestinian leader
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060227.HAMAS27/TPStory/TPInternational/

Looks like another peaceful day.

 

[JOVARN]

BUT the Yen is up . The dollar is down
GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil eases after Friday gains, shares, yen firm
Monday, February 27, 2006 10:21:38 AM
http://www.reuters.com
Dont know why but we may have another good day
New money continues to flow into mutual funds

 

[TiCKed]

"CNN" is bullish:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/24/markets/sun_lookahead/index.htm


While "Fox" is bearish:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,186102,00.html

Gotta love it

Now THAT's funny.

Is it any wonder that most of us "normal" investors don't know what's going on? Throw in the unwarranted overly bullish sentiment, and overly bearish sentiment here, and one is tempted to invest in one's mattress!

 

[Dave M]

Normal investors don't have to sweat the day-to-day market fluctuations while the gamblers do. Investors position themselves to take advantage of upswings and to minimize their downside risk, while the gamblers risk 100%. Investors don't have to worry that they guessed wrong today, they can disregard the cacophony of opinions and go do something more interesting like go to the beach.

Dave

 

[Wimpy]

You make a valid point...

Normal investors don't have to sweat the day-to-day market fluctuations while the gamblers do. Investors position themselves to take advantage of upswings and to minimize their downside risk, while the gamblers risk 100%. Investors don't have to worry that they guessed wrong today, they can disregard the cacophony of opinions and go do something more interesting like go to the beach.

Dave

...if a person is losing sleep over their market approach...they are probably gambling versus investing. Then again, some are thinking they are being conservative by piling into the G-Fund under the illusion of "zero risk". Ain't no such thing!

My suggestion is to have two separate portfolios...one portfolio for investing the money we can't afford to lose and the other portfolio for speculative positions.

 

[TiCKed]

Now THAT's funny.

Is it any wonder that most of us "normal" investors don't know what's going on? Throw in the unwarranted overly bullish sentiment, and overly bearish sentiment here, and one is tempted to invest in one's mattress!

For what it's worth, and considering we're less than 1 day into the week, CNN has been right....for now.

And my comments were more in jest than a real complaint about market news and opinions. It's interesting to watch, as long as you realize that EVERY pundit will be wrong at some time...and they'll probably be right at some time as well.

I'm more convinced than ever that my best bet is to ignore the day-to-day ups and downs, and stay diversified, and maybe...just maybe...react to the BIG moves when they come.

Later,
Tom

 

[SkyPilot]

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day...

 

[learning]

Spaf:

Where did you get a picture of me at my computer terminal, while I was thinking of doing a change?

 

[Dave M]

<<My suggestion is to have two separate portfolios...>>

My friend, we agree. My contributions are safely tucked in the G-fund while all matching funds and gains achieved over the years are spread among CSI-funds.

Dave

 

[Spaf]

Picture?

Spaf:

Where did you get a picture of me at my computer terminal, while I was thinking of doing a change?

Special spy-ware program!