Market Talk / Feb. 26 - Mar. 4

[Birchtree]

The new all-time highs are on a roll

More new all-time highs placed today - and more just under the radar perhaps for tomorrow. Smells like more bull manure to me.

Dow Transports 4514.14 at a new all-time high.
Russell 2000 742.35 at a new all-time high.
AMEX composite 1878.30 at new all-time high.
S&P Mid Cap 400 785.15 at new all-time high.

Just a singing in the rain - watching the choir fill up. And I'm waiting on the second coming of 2003 and another 3000 points.

 

[Fivetears]

Smells like more bull manure to me.

Man Dennis... you sure know how to call 'em.
Mmmmmm; Manure.

 

[Skip]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Yellow Flag is still out ...

Sharp Reversal[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Dow reverses from yesterday's lows, closes back above 11,050.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
From prior commentary, "...the Dow should be considered bearish until it can get a solid upside break through 11,150. Even if the index gets a reaction rally back toward 11,100 tomorrow, true lasting strength won't be seen until 11,150 is confidently taken out...”
[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Dow turned on a dime today, as the index reversed from yesterday's lows en route to a steady climb throughout today's trading, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Chart. The index closed the day at the highs of the session, capturing 60 points, however, the Dow continues to hold beneath the 11,150 level. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As we mentioned yesterday, any movement back toward 11,100 should be considered short term until 11,150 can be solidly broken and held. Since early last week, every rally in the Dow has been sold off heavily the following day. The fact that today's rally didn't even reach 11,100 indicates that this upmove could be even more vulnerable to a sell-off tomorrow or Friday. A solid break back below 11,040 tomorrow will indicate another test at 11,000. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Dow has held within the boundaries of the current two-week trading range, which spans from 10,980 to 11,160. Look for continued sideways movement within this range until a clear and solid breakout occurs. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Short Term Dow [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Dow closed the day within the boundaries of a tight consolidation from 11,050 to 11,070, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. A breakout from this range should clear the path for early direction tomorrow morning. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Medium Term Dow [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In the medium term, we are still out of the market and will watch 11,125 up, and 10,975 down tomorrow; using 20 point stops. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NASDAQ & S&P [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The NASDAQ and S&P each rallied after yesterday's decline. Look for the indexes to establish themselves at the current highs, otherwise, further volatile within the ranges will resume. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Dow closed the day near the highs of the session after rallying solidly higher from yesterday's lows. The index continues to battle within the boundaries of a clear trading range, but hasn't yet tested the major 11,150 zone. An upside break through this level should yield big results for bulls, but continued weakness should be seen beneath this level. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading! [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]_________________________ [/FONT]

 

[Birchtree]

Watching the TRIN

The NYSE TRIN on Tuesday closed above 2.00 (2.08), the day after a new bull market intraday high on Monday. You shouldn't see high TRIN readings like this at market tops, you see them at market bottoms. This is oversold. That type of TRIN reading would suggest most nervous sellers are now out of the market. It actually looked like a climatic bottom washout. Wednesday was a good day and today it's back to climbing the rock wall of worry. It should be a long day with oil on the rise again. Good hunting.

Dennis - still permabull #1

 

[tsptalk]

The indexes came out and tested yesterday's lows, then shot up to test yesterday's highs. Both held and we are sitting about in the middle of the two at the moment (S&P is 1287).

Will we have an "inside day" or will we breakout one way or the other today? Any guesses?

 

[Wizard]

Stock traders finally figured out that consumer income increases less then consumer spreading is not good.

Consumer spending .9%
Consumer income .7%

That does not compute.

Which is why the bonds are flying today.

I n f l a t i o n.

Got my own little printing press. Easy money.

 

[Wizard]

And I'm waiting on the second coming of 2003 and another 3000 points.

What the fed going to drop to 1% and we are going to get retroactive tax cuts?

We are going to get 3000 points all right.

 

[Wizard]

Any guesses?

Give everything from yesterday back.

Only a fool would be long in front of the ISM report tomorrow.

What is going to say? Hmmm, ahhhh, hhhhmmm - slowing growth.

Hyperinflation. Best of both worlds.

 

[Birchtree]

A fool born every minute

The NASDAQ is showing good resilience today - so the market outcome may depend on the GOOG meeting.

I've already achieved half my goal for the year as of yesterday with the C fund being up $.51. As a longer term accumulator of shares the silver thread would be for the market to close lower - but I'll take a new recovery high if necessary. I wouldn't mind terribly giving it all back to a C fund price of $13.55 as a last case strategy - it's going to be a long year and lower pricing buys more shares. So far this year my contribution purchases look like this: $13.96, $13.70, $13.74, $14.01 and then there is tomorrow - maybe an under $14.00 price. The C fund certainly is cheaper than the I fund - let me fill my pockets before the BIG move returns.

Dennis

 

[tsptalk]

Which is why the bonds are flying today.

Bond yields you mean. Bonds are sinking.

 

[Wizard]

the silver thread

Lining?

Silver up over 4% today.

 

[Wizard]

Yes, my rep goes red.

Hey, how is the water?

Did you bring your perma bull repellent?

 

[Birchtree]

Elliott center point of a third wave in progress

Robo,

I think if I were Henry I wouldn't want to be standing on the tracks with my shorts on in front of this train trying to call a top. The NYSE showed good relative performance today being off only four points. I think the S&P small cap 600 put in a new all-time high along with the AMEX composite. I don't know that much about key reversals or range days but my bet is we push higher tomorrow and begin the squeeze pressure.

The NYAD line went to a new all-time high yesterday and after today the bull remains intact - no fear from my perspective. I don't ever recall a time when the Dow Transports were leading with new all-time highs that the market topped. Even with a possible 4 year cycle low due it will be mild providing it arrives. Thanks again for the information.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Mar. 2, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Dang! This thing is like a washboard. The candlestick for today was a hammer; a reversal after a downtrend, control going back to the buyers. That was closing, tomorrow who knows!
Other Yak.............. Lube still inching up! We are on a collision course here?

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1289.14, dn -2.10
Money flow............ +0.125, decreasing.
Stops................... NA.
Averages.............. +4.98, unchanged.
Slow STO.............. 75.21, decreasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 55.7 [30]

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 63.36, up +1.39
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow [Trading Range].

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.

 

[ATCJeff]

ISM Report

As the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday that its Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing rose 1.9 percent in February to 56.7 percent, National Association of Manufacturers economist Chi Nguyen noted that the "healthy gain" reversed a three-month trend when manufacturing activity measured by the index was cooling.



"The manufacturing sector obviously heated up a bit in February, and that's good news," she said. "PMI's indices for both new orders and manufacturing employment were also up 3.9 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, and that bodes well for a nice finish for the first quarter and a solid start to the second.



"Manufacturing's steady recovery appears to be staying on track as this is the 33rd consecutive month that the manufacturing index has stayed above 50," Nguyen said, explaining that an index above 50 indicates growth within the manufacturing sector. An index below 50 indicates contraction. The manufacturing employment index, in particular, offers hope that this month's employment numbers from the Labor Department may include some welcomed news of factory job creation. But consumer confidence was significantly down last month and energy prices continue to take a toll on the overall economy, so manufacturing's uphill struggle will continue for a while before anyone decides to celebrate."

 

[Wizard]

As the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday that its Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing rose 1.9 percent in February to 56.7 percent, National Association of Manufacturers economist Chi Nguyen noted that the "healthy gain" reversed a three-month trend when manufacturing activity measured by the index was cooling.

Previous was 58.1. Careful who you listen too. They are spinning.

ISM Mfg Index, Level
Actual 56.7
Consensus 56.0
Consensus Range 55.0 to 57.0 ** notice this was lowered? Beat by a penny. **
Previous 58.1

Obviously 56.7 is lower then the previous 58.1 and NOT A "HEALTHY GAIN".
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

 

[TiCKed]

Try this link:http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/ROB032006.cfm

According to the source (ISM), their index rose from 54.8 for January to 56.7 for February....+1.9.

Where did you get your numbers?

 

[mlk_man]

Wizard, if you actually READ your posted link, you'll notice they even say the index went up. Apparentlly they had a typo in their summary box.

Please try to verify information before you post it. You of all people should know we don't like posting of false information.

Thanks,

M_M

Previous was 58.1. Careful who you listen too. They are spinning.

ISM Mfg Index, Level
Actual 56.7
Consensus 56.0
Consensus Range 55.0 to 57.0 ** notice this was lowered? Beat by a penny. **
Previous 58.1

Obviously 56.7 is lower then the previous 58.1 and NOT A "HEALTHY GAIN".
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

 

[Wizard]

Please try to verify information before you post it. You of all people should know we don't like posting of false information.

My bad, I will verify through a second source before I post.

Thank you for wording that so well Mike.

Very none confrontational.

 

[mlk_man]

Just like your PM?