Market Talk / Feb. 26 - Mar. 4

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Feb. 27, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Socks rise in optimism. Mr. Market gave the pinata some good whacks, but no candy brokeout.
Other Yak.............. Gotta lotta lube!

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1294.12, up -4.69
Money flow............ +0.100, decreasing.
Stops................... NA.
Averages.............. +5.34, increasing.
Slow STO.............. 88.25, decreasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 60.8 [30]

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 61.00, dn -1.91
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Yellow.

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.

 

[Rod]

S&P 500 At New High???

I'm hearing the news of the S&P hitting an all new 4 1/2 year high.

This is not true.

It is still "lagging" behind the Jan 11 high of 1,294.18

Since that is higher than today's close, I just thought I would point that out.

God Bless

 

[Fivetears]

Gonna be busy...

Fivetears,
Wizard,

The indicators and stuff are in the TSP Talk forum: TSP Strategies - Technical Analysis. They are from: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/site_map.htm

looking at and understanding all this stuff. Uh... thanks; I think.

 

[Birchtree]

Jewels in the crown

Rod,

Don't forget to look at the other jewels that make up the market - here are a few new all time highs for today: Wizard, you can hunt for yourself.

Wilshire 5000 - new all-time high at 13,059.91.
Russell 2000 - new all-time high at 740.63.
Dow Transports - new all-time high at 4485.14.
NYSE composite - new all-time high at 8139.67.
S&P Mid cap 400 - new all-time high at 782.39.
S&P Small cap 600 - new all-time high at 381.29.
NYSE Financial I'm not sure about at this point.

I wouldn't overly concentrate on whether the S&P 500 makes a recovery high - it has a long way to go for the new all-time high - they keep changing the components so it can be a little misleading. Take care.

Dennis

 

[Rod]

Rod,

Don't forget to look at the other jewels that make up the market

You betcha!

I simply wanted to set the record straight for those who think it truly made the 4 1/2 year high.

Furthermore, CSI are now at all-time highs.

Now that we have all these new highs around us, common sense says a pullback is on tap.

In the words of Spaf, "be careful"!

God Bless

 

[robo]

Birchtree I sent you a Message

Birchtree,

I sent you a private message about Henry...


GO GO BIG BULL!!!!

 

[JOVARN]

not a bad start for the I fund:
Japanese Stocks Edge Higher at Open; Dollar Lower Against the Yen
February 27, 2006 - 20:35:42

TOKYO (AP) - Japanese stocks edged higher in early trading Tuesday on gains in the steel sector and on Wall Street overnight. The dollar was lower against the yen.

The Nikkei 225 index rose 25.67 points, or 0.16 percent, to 16,218.62 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange at Tuesday's open.

On Wall Street, tumbling oil prices and strong earnings from home improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. sent stocks higher Monday as investors regained their optimism about corporate profits and the health of the economy.

 

[Wizard]

Foreign firms operate terminals at major West Coast cargo ports

"On the West Coast, almost all the ports have their terminals operated by foreign companies," said Ivan Eland, senior fellow at The Independent Institute, a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy research organization based in Oakland.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/merc...california/northern_california/13956543.htm:(

--------------------------

02/24/2006 $8,248,646,921,952.35

Still in technical default.

It is all good?

 

[Wizard]

Wizard, you can hunt for yourself.

Wilshire 5000 - new all-time high at 13,059.91.
Russell 2000 - new all-time high at 740.63.
Dow Transports - new all-time high at 4485.14.
NYSE composite - new all-time high at 8139.67.
S&P Mid cap 400 - new all-time high at 782.39.
S&P Small cap 600 - new all-time high at 381.29.
NYSE Financial I'm not sure about at this point.

Looks toppy to me. What is that about only suckers buy at the highs?

 

[Spaf]

What to do!

The Kingdom of TSP
The Trading Range​

Mr. Market has a probability of breaking out of the trading range. We could be in a transitional formation for a breakout on the upside. Kind of reliable, but that doesn't mean the pattern never fails (if it does, a exit strategy is needed). If the market breaks out (a gap and breakout) stocks should trade back, retest the resistance and start advancing. If it trades back past the gap (fills the gap), its a bull trap; bail.

For us senior folks. I'll wait till I see a few bullish sign bars on the upside.

Rgds, and be careful!................ ................Spaf

 

[Fivetears]

"The Price is Right" Yodeling Game.

The S-fund currently has room to move upward in addition to the I-fund. In fact the S-fund may even have a little more room to go up. I'm staying away from the C-fund since it is at the upper end of the trading range. It may go higher but should head lower soon to present better buying opportunity. I've attached graphs that I hope will show what I'm looking at. I'm targeting the I-fund for $18.75 and will exit following weakness. The S-fund, I'm targeting $17.6 and will exit following weakness. Regardless, a sharp downward move in either fund will also cause me to bail to G.

If you do the math, the upward for S is about 1.5% and for I is about 0.8%. I'm staying heavier in the I-fund because I think the dollar is set for a drop which could really push I-fund as high as $19 which would be a 2% gain over current level.

Fundsurfer's two charts (bottom of this post) show room for mobility in both S & I Funds. The C Fund does look a bit risky for upward mobility, I'll have to admit.
Spaf, Wizard, what am I not seeing in reference to your previous page posts in this thread?

Looks toppy to me. What is that about only suckers buy at the highs?

Mr. Market has a probability of breaking out of the trading range. We could be in a transitional formation for a breakout on the upside. Kind of reliable, but that doesn't mean the pattern never fails (if it does, a exit strategy is needed). If the market breaks out (a gap and breakout) stocks should trade back, retest the resistance and start advancing. If it trades back past the gap (fills the gap), its a bull trap; bail.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/attachment.php?attachmentid=862&d=1141057092

 

[Wizard]

Spaf, Wizard, what am I not seeing in reference to your previous page posts in this thread?

My source is from a paid site. Not TWSJ, by the way. Prove I am not spinning.

 

[Birchtree]

Capital spending

I notice business investment spending rose at a 5.4 percent rate, compared with an originally reported 2.8 percent advance. The core rate of inflation for Q4 dropped to 2.1% from 2.2%. The Fed has to be pleased.

 

[Wizard]

Euroland is getting its butt kicked.

 

[Wizard]

The core rate of inflation for Q4 dropped to 2.1% from 2.2%. The Fed has to be pleased.

With energy and food included the inflation rate is 8.4% on an annualized bases. Housing in the core rate is based on the rate of renter not a home owner. That seems kind of stupid when there are more homeowners then ever. Could it be the core is spun?

The Fed is not pleased. Fed is not even close to neutral.

That may be why two have resigned so far this year.

 

[Wizard]

I notice business investment spending rose at a 5.4 percent rate, compared with an originally reported 2.8 percent advance.

To bad that investment is not in the U.S. How does that help the U.S.? When they are building massive factories on the coast on China, Thailand and Malyasia.

Get off the couch.

You should be on a Kudlow panel.

 

[oldschool]

With energy and food included the inflation rate is 8.4% on an annualized bases. Housing in the core rate is based on the rate of renter not a home owner. That seems kind of stupid when there are more homeowners then ever. Could it be the core is spun?

The Fed is not pleased. Fed is not even close to neutral.

That may be why two have resigned so far this year.

The Fed says it's neutral, hmm who to believe...I pick.... the Fed.

Makes sense to me the Vice Chairman of the Fed under Greenspan would leave so that the Bernake could have a Vice Chairman of his own selection....

 

[Birchtree]

"Chicken Little" biases

Today could be a bullish head fake - shake out the weak ones. There is plenty of time left for a solid Deja Vu like we've seen over the last couple of trading days.

Every time the market makes new highs, there's always something else to fear and this is why bull markets climb a wall of worry. I keep thinking I'm back in 1994 and the Fed stops with a susequent 1995 run approaching. IMHO the odds of an upside breakout are far better than a downside breakdown - even if some prominent bear paws are taking short positions - they will bleed.

The global markets are unprecedented (except for today - the pause that refreshes), this is a global economic bull and so far very stable. And with the weighted SPX we are trailing so do we play catch up or does the resyt of the world collapse? No one ever said investing was easy - however if we do continue down for a few days my dollar cost averaging contribution kicks in in two days so there is always a silver thread - and that is easy investing.

Good to see oil prices trying for a slow come back.

 

[Wizard]

You are amazing, really.

Global bull and good to see oil prices rising.

Talk about an oxyMORON.

 

[Birchtree]

Secular energy play

Wizard,

Yes, I'm selfish when it comes to energy stocks - I own a good many and they haven't been kind recently - but that will undoubtedly change. I'm a long term believer in the energy game. So I'll just continue with my dividend reinvestment program and catch the falling prices - this is a marathon race not a short sprint. Try popping your head out of that G fund and see how good the sun can feel. I'm waiting for the second coming of 2003 and another 3000 point take off.

Dennis - permabull #1 by default