Market Talk / Dec. 25 - 31

[smine]

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Well my budget may cry uncle but I'm gonna try the full $5000 catchupplus 13%. The good news is now you can change without waiting for an open season. Did I read somewhere that the cap was $20K? If it's 15 I may have over figured by 400 bucks.

I'm up 7.2% for the year; not great but better than CDs, my mutual funds or any savings account. Best of luck to all tomorrow and here's to a great and bullish 2006!:^SMINE

 

[ATCJeff]

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smine wrote:

Well my budget may cry uncle but I'm gonna try the full $5000 catchupplus 13%. The good news is now you can change without waiting for an open season. Did I read somewhere that the cap was $20K? If it's 15 I may have over figured by 400 bucks.

I'm up 7.2% for the year; not great but better than CDs, my mutual funds or any savings account. Best of luck to all tomorrow and here's to a great and bullish 2006!:^SMINE

The IRS limit for 2006 is 15K. Alot of people are talking about 20K, but that includes the 5K catch up if you are 50 years old or older.

Jeff

URL from TSP.GOV

http://tsp.gov/curinfo/qsas-limits.html

 

[bkrownd]

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ATCJeff wrote:

The IRS limit for 2006 is 15K. Alot of people are talking about 20K, but that includes the 5K catch up if you are 50 years old or older...

...or they may be mentally adding agency matching contributions, depending on your salary level and agency match.

 

[robo]

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Smine wrote:

I'm up 7.2% for the year; not great but better than CDs,

That is a very good return for 2005, good job!!! I finished around6.5% and I'm very pleased with that return... I'm a conservative investor and try not to get to greedy...

Currently 100% in cashwatching the market for thenext trend. The trend is your friend, and the market is always right.... Mr Market will show us direction soon... Plenty of time to make money in 2006... Plenty of buying op's coming are way!!!!

Good investing in 2006...

 

[Mike]

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The yield curve inverted again.

 

[Soldat]

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The SPX opened to the upside on Tuesday, hitting the intraday high of 1271.83 on the first bar and then the red knife down started on the 11:20 AM bar. It was a surprise trend down to an intraday low of 1256.74, where it closed. NYSE volume was only 1.15 billion shares but there were no Generals stepping up to reverse the decline and it remained that way through yesterday, as the SPX closed at 1258.17, +0.1%. Since the 1254.64 Tuesday low on the 1:50 PM bar, the SPX has treaded water between 1261.10 - 1254.64.

There are two trading days left, but the expectation was for a push higher in price the first couple of days, and then see the Generals hold the levels on Friday. I expected them to at least get the SPX above +5% on the year after the current rally that we've had, which although not great, beats the 1168 (10/13/05 low) 51 days ago. The SPX is now just +3.8% YTD and I must emphasize, has a very weak technical outlook to at least the Fall of 2006 to early 2007 regardless of what the yield curve does or does not do. The only question is whether the SPX Wave 5 gets extended to the anticipated symmetry above 1275.80 (outlined in Inner Circle). The risk of a significant percentage decline far outweighs a nominal percentage gain above 1275.82 and that is why this corner has taken the preventative action that is has, which I referred to in previous commentaries. Maybe if Iraq and Iran went away and crude oil went South big time, the game will continue. Why do I think that is not so realistic? 2006 is a mid-term election year and that's where we saw market bottoms in 1990, 1998 and 2002. Trivia yes, but it tilts probability.

Keep you powder dry today and tomorrow and better yet, take the two days off.

Have a good trading day and have a Happy New Year,

Kevin Haggerty




Article found here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/051229/13714.html

 

[learning]

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Ok, sounds nice kicking in all that money. However,you should also look at a ROTH. If you are a long way from retirement you had better get one. That is where you will get the most money. Don't mistake me. Get your 5% matching if you are FERS. After that if you can leave alone your money then a ROTH is the place to be. Pay the taxes now and get the break at the other end. Something to think about if you have a ways to go.

Also to the person that has all that money. You know... lived the college life in the 90's... Well enjoy... If you get married it is a whole new ball game. :l

 

[smine]

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Got a ROTH as well as a few other annunities that are set up to never go below 4%. Between TSP, ROTH, retirement, Mutual funds and annunities I can almost save til I can't enjoy the present, you know. Friends are retiring all around me and they assure me that after you quit trying so hard to save money, you actually have enough to live on!!!

 

[cowboy]

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cowboy wrote:

bkrownd wrote:

cowboy wrote:

Buying cheap doesn't necessarily mean a gain. Although nice it doesn't mean anything unless it rally's up for you in the future.

The cheaper I buy, the more I gain. Why would I want to pay more for the same shares? I want some bargains this winter! Fortunately it lost some steam at the end of the day. If I had made the (7AM) deadline yesterday I would have got the cheaper price and the G penny as well. Dang.

The cheaper I buy, the more I gain. Not to burst your bubble but that is false in stocks. You could of bought cheaper today and still lose tomorrow. Like I said don't kick yourself for missing a move and always look at tomorrow not the past as you will lose if you don't. What will you do if the market goes down tomorrow?

LOL!!! I bet someone is kicking himself this morning or are you going to dig a deeper hole. I am setting 100% S, now how are we going to make this lemon into lemonade? What seems to be the best move is to pull out. The trend is down guys it has been for awhile. Cowboy was playing short and now hooked but I am thinking there still be money to be made but where is it at? Mmmm? I will study this some this morning. If you have went G or F sit tight this thing could get nasty again just like last year. Everyone on the board remembers last year, so this could be effecting the way we play.

 

[robo]

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Markets under pressure, but good support around 1245.... This could set up for a bounce the first few days of January or even later today!!! The boys might want to take it up one more time before they let it slide some... I'm sure some are shorting today and the boys could squeeze ummm hard. Up or down I'll be watching untill the trend for investing is clearer.The trend is your friend!!!! Currently 100% cash...

Good Investing!!!!

 

[cowboy]

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Trading is going to be light all day but we could see something happen yet. But the US market is going to be closed on Monday so maybe Tuesday will be the swivel day if it doesn't happen today.

 

[tennisguy]

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Even though today is down in the s and c fund, the volume is not high. So until I see a down day with high volume i will stay in the stocks. Remember most corperations (and their money) are off the last week of dec. Leaving most of the individual investers (dumb money) selling. Anyway that is just my thoughts.
Have a get New Years.
Tennisguy.

 

[bkrownd]

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cowboy wrote:

LOL!!! I bet someone is kicking himself this morning or are you going to dig a deeper hole.

Huh? I am celebrating. I bought more today. The more prices fall, the more I'll buy. The more I buy, the happier I feel. Still got plenty of G to spend. Bring it on.

 

[learning]

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I'm in safe harbor and it could take off today or the next trading day. However, last year is on my mind. I will sit and watch. If there are enough people out there like me we may end up getting burned trying to buy in at the wrong time. "Dumb money"Yes, I may kick my self.... that's ok...why, I'm sore from all the other times I won't feel the difference. :shock:

 

[Greg]

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The MSCI is down 0.94% today (12/30/05).
If they were honest :X, the I-fund will down the same amount (17 cents).

Remember, I said "IF" :X

 

[Quips]

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Though it be a disappointing end, one positive thing can be said: for those who believed that a losing January would lead to a negative yearly return, well, they were wrong.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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Greg wrote:

The MSCI is down 0.94% today (12/30/05).
If they were honest :X, the I-fund will down the same amount (17 cents).

Remember, I said "IF" :X

I'm hoping for at least a little 'dishonesty' to the upside....tsp board did figure in our favor quite handsomely back on wed, the 28th. I'm hoping they worked it off thurs and maybe in a jovial end of year mood today. I'm sure there is some fairly rigid formula or strategy they use.

 

[Greg]

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FUTURESTRADER wrote:

tsp board did figure in our favor quite handsomely back on wed, the 28th.

What the Hades are you talk about?

ON TUESDAY THE 27TH WHEN THE MSCI WAS DOWN 0.22%, THE I-FUND WAS DOWN 0.79%. (I.E., THEY SHORT CHANGED US 0.57% - WHICH IS A LOT TO BE OFF IN ONE DAY IMHO). THEN ON THE NEXT DAY THEY GIVE US BACK OUR 0.57% AND YOU CALL IT DOING US A FAVOR *SIGH*

BETWEENDEC 5TH AND 23ND THE %-RETURN OF MSCI AND THE I-FUND WAS EXACTLY THE SAME (WITHIN 3-HUNDREDTHS OF A PERCENT). BUT ON DEC 1ST&2ND AND 27TH&28TH THEY FUDGE THE SHARE PRICE BY AT LEAST 0.6% AND THEN ADJUST IT BACK RIGHT THE NEXT DAY.

It does make a person wonder why they do this:*. Oh yeah, they say they want to discourage person from trading in-or-out ofa fundif it looks wise to do so on a specific day.

(Note to self: Send PM to FuturesTrader apologizingif I sounded like I was shouting or angry at him)

 

[Soldat]

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Tuesday will be another down day. And probably worse than today. Mark my words, I bet 35$ on at least .5% down on the S, any takers?

 

[bkrownd]

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Soldat wrote:

Tuesday will be another down day. And probably worse than today. Mark my words, I bet 35$ on at least .5% down on the S, any takers?

I'm ready to buy - go ahead, make my day. :^ I just don't want the internationals to continue sliding because I don't plan on buying them for a while.