Market Talk / Dec. 25 - 31

[SkyPilot]

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Spaf, how are you going to handle your TSP account? Annuity, roll-over, incremental withdrawal, etc... or just continue to manage it in TSP? In any case, best of luck. I am interested as I have about 10-11 years to go and like to know what others think in this regard, even as all our circumstances are very different.

Blessings and prosperity!

 

[Birchtree]

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Anyone who has persevered toward retirement probably realizes that their TSP account is a golden opportunity. There is more than likely another 20 years of investment potential to work wonders - and on days like today you can get one nice adrenalin rush to keep the heart in shape. While I was out riding the net over the weekend I couldn't believe all the bears standing in the road - it's enough to scare the bull tinkey out of the younger Ferdinands - but us silver backs know the game. Hang tight and this selling will pass and on to new highs we go - this is not your fathers cyclical bull market - but rather a new generation secular bull market. And you have to be in to win. The inverted yield curve is just another rock on the rock wall of worry that is needed for a sucessful climb to prosperity. Take care.

 

[Crasher]

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I wish we could swing trade on a day like today. I got out Friday and It would be nice to buy realtime. I hope they give us the oppurtunity in the future for us that would take advantage and care enough to watch closely for our retirements.

SPAF I hope you reconsider... for those who realize you are a position trader. It is nice to see a educated opinion posted like yours everday.

Crasher

 

[Greg]

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The Technician wrote:

The EFA paid out a dividend on the 23rd of $1.11....

Thanks for the info, Tech.
Say if a fellow wanted to find that kind of information, where should he look?

EFA paid out $1.11 and it's valuedropped the same amount. I see that as no net-gain.

 

[Spaf]

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Humm! I didn't realize how many folks were reading the Daily Kingdom posts.

OK! I'll try and keep it going. However, I would like it to better represent Position trading. Any ideas to improve it would be appreciated. I just don't want it to seem to others that we are day trading.

SkyPilot,.........After much research.My savings stay with TSP! TSP is more secure and I can manage them better than any other source! Once a year (December) I'll make a withdrawl for the coming year. About 4%.

You'l have to put up with me, a while longer. Spaf

 

[mlk_man]

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Spaf wrote:

You'l have to put up with me, a while longer. Spaf

Just when I thought Santa brought us a great gift!!!!! Just kidding Spaf...........................glad you're sticking around..:^

 

[tsptalk]

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Today is looking like a repeat of the 2004 post Christmas sell off. The good news is the following day last year, the market got it all back and more.

These light volume volatile days can be fun... when you are on the right side.

 

[Spaf]

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M_M, My buddy!

There is nothing wrong with Vanguard, USAA, Fidelity and etc. They are all good companies.

However, after adding up all the pluse's and minuse's.

TSP has good funds, an alternative to go lifecycle, the security of the G-fund,and the ability to change allocations for safety or opportunity. Plus, add this web site with members constantly on the look-out.

In the past, everytime I let someone else handle my $, investments were only short term gains unless they were managed. So, why pay these extra expenses? I don't wanta pay for their vacation!

MHO Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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tsptalk wrote:

Today is looking like a repeat of the 2004 post Christmas sell off. The good news is the following day last year, the market got it all back and more.

These light volume volatile days can be fun... when you are on the right side.

Tom, :% ??
Bond yield curve inverts
stocks falling Tuesday as developments in the bond market that have typically foreshadowed economic slowdowns spooked investors.

Gulp!

 

[Birchtree]

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Tom,

I don't wanna wait until tomorrow - I want the snap back today. This reminds me of the start of December when on many days we were up 80 points at 1500 hours only to be sold off before the close - now the reverse may happen. It will be a long 11/2 hours to go - but I'm ready for the snap back.

Dennis

 

[bkrownd]

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Damn, and as soon as I saw the plunge I tried to transfer, but I was just a few seconds too late for today's deadline to convert some of my G into C and S. (deadline is at 7AM my time.)

 

[The_Technician]

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Greg, I happened to see it on the historical data off Yahoo......

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=EFA

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Hmmm today was a definite sell off....seem to pick up speed as the day went on....

I'm really curious whether or not it will come back over the next several days like some have speculated today....we will find out......

If the dollar drops value again over the next several months (reason-foreign countries upping their interest rates )then I would expect the I fund will return as a good investment.........



Cautious as usual....

:dude:

 

[robo]

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Closing Comment from a Tech:

So far, the "correction" looks a little more like a "consolidation". The SPX is about to challenge the 1250 level and the QQQQ its recent low of 40.75. This could happen as early as tomorrow and is likely to causesome sort of a bounce.

The A/D has not really gotten very weak so far, and if it does not get weaker soon, I may have to modify my secenario for the low either in terms of time or price.

 

[bkrownd]

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I don't know what's really causing this fire sale - I don't believe the shape of some silly plot on any given day is worth getting so worked up about - but here's to hoping prices are still low through tomorrow. I am eager to dump some excess G when the price is right.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition


Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and Fortunes. Date: Dec. 27, 2005


Kingdom Yak.

Market Yak......Cartel creature devours dragonfly: Rising Fed interest rates took control away from buyers.

Other Yak........Vestors worry about recession.


Doodles, and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at............... 1256.54, dn -12.12
Money flow............ -0.191, slightly up.

Stops..................... Alert: 1261 [broken], Trailing: 1249.

Averages............... +6.34, dn. Possible downtrend
Overbought/sold..... [70] 50.4 [30]

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at................ 58.16, dn -0.27
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-64 = worry, >64 = critical.

Tea leaves:........................ Red.


Fortunes.

Position.............................. 100G

 

[ou81200]

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Bkrownd---

IMO---

1. It could be investors preparing for the correction that everyone thought would happen in January and might be selling early.

2. Or investors selling their losing stock to get some kind of tax relief from their capital losses before the end of the year.

3. Just a healthy pullback-----OUCH!!!

4. The result of light trading with heavy volitility. I believe this most likely.

Any input from anyone???

 

[Birchtree]

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Since hope springs eternal - I hope I had at least a few dividend payers today for dividend reinvestment. From a contrarian standpoint the day looked dire, dire indeed, but oh so sweet.

An inversion of the yield curve could be a serious occurrence - if it is prolonged past a minimum three months. The Fed has tightened eight times in the past three decades, and the Treasury yield curve has inverted five times. Birchtree, is this really necessary? Each time the curve inverted, the economy slipped into recession ayear later. Not this time, not with Mr Bernanke in charge - he'll start lowering rates before the economy gets too slow. This could be 2003 all over again - good market with slower growth.

Lead times vary between the inversion of the yield curve and a subsequent profits recession. The shortest lead time was six months (June 1989) and the longest was 24 months (June 1973) and (December 1978). The average was 14 months. Equally important, S&P 500 earnings growth rates varied from cycle to cycle. The strongest profits growth when the curve inverted was 22% (August 2000) and the weakest was 8% (January 1969).

This bull will stay the course - and enjoy any pain that is temporarily delivered. Some of you that remember back in April - know pain is my gain. Bring it on.

 

[Spaf]

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ou81200 wrote:

Any input from anyone???

The MACD has been declining the entire month. Today, it is still positive at +6.34. A downtrend is confirmed when the MACD crosses below the center (0).

Some traders use the signal line to trigger a new position i.e., Buying when the the MACD line crosses above the signal line, and selling when the MACD line crosses below the signal line.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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A big red flag went up for me today - the yield curve briefly inverted (and then ended flat). Any time you see a flat to inverted yield curve, banks won't fare too well - they borrow money at the short term rates and lend it at the long term ones - the closer these rates are to each other, the worse it is for them. Another more significant issue here is that when the yield curve inverts, a recession is sure to follow. The last time we had an inverted yield curve was 2000 - a few months before the recession.

Of course, anything is possible, and the rule could have an exception or two - but I'm not betting on that.

I hope to see some strength in the short term so I can begin taking up a much more defensive posture as we head into '06.