Market Talk / Dec. 25 - 31

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The Kingdom of TSP

Trading Strategy

Since mid-November I am moving to a more technical investment strategy. I want to move away from swing trades and focus more on position trades. The reason being that swing trades seems to be too emotional. I want the market to tell me what to do!

The Kingdom Talk weekly and daily format are under revision to move more in line with position trading.

If you care to follow along with me. Welcome!

Here's the strategy:

For Yak. This is a synopsis of the fundamentals.

Will be using charts from www.stockcharts.com for a guide. I'll use the gallery view of $SPX as a general reference to considerthe daily and weekly movements, and the money flow. For a weekly viewI'll use a custom sharp chart of the $SPX, and reference daily progress in narrative

For Technicals I plan to use the CMF, MACD, and the RSI. A complete discription of these indicators can be found at http://www.incrediblecharts.com

Am I mad? I don't think so! I'm still having too much fun!

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
 
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Well I jumped out for January. My luck it will go through the roof. I am out as of today. I think in 2006, the I fund may be the place to be again. We shall see. If the people in DC start to cut spending it would help our dollar. Lets see... new drug program... on top of other things, (trade deficit). (No they won't help the dollar.) Other countries raise theirrates? (I think sooo.) I do not think the dollar will do well. I do not believe it will die, just lose some over all.
 
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The Dow, SPX, and small capsappear to be off to a slow start, but take note of the DJTA as it moves higher ahead of the other markets.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJTA

big.chart
 
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Low home sales versus hotel buys!!:shock:What to doooo??? Stay or hide! 10 minutes to decide.
 
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Wish I had more in the I fund. But since I have had a good run, I can't complain. I may miss another run, but right now, the risks outweigh the benefits. Think I will play it safe for awhile and lock in my profits.



It's been a good for me :).
 
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smine wrote:
What a bummer! Not only no small gains but a loss. Pain in the butt.

Only a loss if you happen to be selling at COB. I came this -> || close to buying again, but decided to hold. Oh well...
 
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Well yeah. It's always a guess but by 2pm it looked like a lock for a few cents gain! I am surprised, and yes, did go to G by COB, something I would not do if a loss was expected. Oh well, here's to payday tomorrow, where a safe amount goes to G; also made new contribution changes to include $5000 catch-up and increased % of allocations since 2006 is unlimited (almost).
 
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smine wrote:
Well yeah. It's always a guess but by 2pm it looked like a lock for a few cents gain! I am surprised, and yes, did go to G by COB, something I would not do if a loss was expected. Oh well, here's to payday tomorrow, where a safe amount goes to G; also made new contribution changes to include $5000 catch-up and increased % of allocations since 2006 is unlimited (almost).

Well, there's always hope shares will seriously tank next week and you'll come out ahead. :) I can't wait until my first unlimited contribution gets to my account. By mid-year my TSP value will double. :D
 
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Well I did give serious thought to putting in the max, up to $20K I think. As an older person, I am in CERS, where no one matched my contributions. We were held to 5% forever; just recently have been able to up things 1% each year. This year was 10%, now I can go crazy! But finally went with 13% and if that's too much out of my check I can back it down. I think you can save too much and not enjoy today!
 
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smine wrote:
I think you can save too much and not enjoy today!

I lived a comfortable globetrotting student life through the 1990's on less than $15000/year, so I have no trouble saving/investing more than half my income these days. It was good training in miserdom. The best things in life don't cost too much...except for amarone. I don't know what to do with all this..."money", I think they call it...so I spend it all on the giant video game called "mutual funds". "BING BING BING WOOOOOOP $$$ CHING CHING CHING $$$" :D
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and Fortunes. Date: Dec. 29, 2005


Kingdom Yak.

Market Yak......Stingy Santa! 10yr T note=4.368%, 2yr=4.381% Woops! Housing dn 1.7%

Other Yak........Krude back in town. Lube rises above $60.


Doodles, and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at............... 1254.42, dn -3.75
Money flow............ -0.125, up.

Stops..................... Alert: 1261 [broken], Trailing: 1249.

Averages............... +4.46, dn. (falling) Possible downtrend.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 48.6 [30]

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at................ 60.32, up +0.50
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-64 = worry, >64 = critical.

Tea leaves:........................ Red.


Fortunes.

Position.............................. 100G
 
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Just as a reminder, the TSP now has "unlimited" caps. The IRS still has a $15000 cap for pre-taxed retirement funds.
 
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smine wrote:
Well yeah. It's always a guess but by 2pm it looked like a lock for a few cents gain! I am surprised, and yes, did go to G by COB, something I would not do if a loss was expected. Oh well, here's to payday tomorrow, where a safe amount goes to G; also made new contribution changes to include $5000 catch-up and increased % of allocations since 2006 is unlimited (almost).


Just remember the IRS limit on contibutions is 15K this year!:XAnd if you are FERS you have better spread the conributions out evenly or you risk loosing out on matching money. Think that is ~$577.00/pp(2 weeks).

CERS people can front load as much as their buget will allow. :D

Happy New Year everyone!

Jeff
 
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