Market Talk / Dec. 25 - 31

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Early Edition

Kingdom News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: Dec. 25, 2005


Kingdom News.

Kingdom Talk:. Vestors slip and slid in over-boughts!

Train passes by small bears and short bulls.

Elsewhere:...... Jester: "A dragonfly in the snow!"


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly, and ending.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at................... 1268.66, up +1.34 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at....... -0.199, dn -0.176 for the week.
RSI (strength) at............ 61.3, dn -0.70 for the week; [O.B.=70, O.S.=30].
MACD (trend)....... Short
S-STO (signal)...... -------
P-SAR (signal)...... Short
ROC (change)....... Long

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.............. 58.43, dn -0.62 for the week.

Attachment:. S&P (3mo) chart ending 12/23 Added: 20dMA, P-SAR, RSI, MACD, STO, and ROC.

Tea leaves:......................Yellow


Yak.

Remarks:..................... Holding 100/0 (100-0 / 0-0-0).
Stops (C:S&P):............. Alert: 1261, Trailing: 1249.

Lube Markers:.............. <60 = ok, 60-64 = worry, >64 = critical.

Weekly TSP Returns:...1 Wk : G=+.01, F=+.04, C=+.02, S=+.09, I=+.09
2 Wks: G=+.02, F=+.10, C=+.11, S=-.03, I=+.32

 

[Quips]

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http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh67113_2005-12-23_19-37-04_n23474669_newsml

The optimists are looking for a few things here: an after Christmas sales boost and stable -- if not lower -- oil prices.

Those things will combine to keep the yield curve from flattening.

However, if those things do not pan out I see volitility in the marketssince the Fed concerned about inflation to the risk of inducing a recession.

Lately the head of the Fed in Richmond wasjawboning prospects of economic growth in 2006. Increasing interest rates to 4.5% would hamper the rise of gold and strengthen the dollar, but it is obviously doing nothing for real estate.

The real estate sector is running the biggest risk in the market. If the lack of growth is limited there and only there for a spellwell, it is something the rest of the market will overcome. If technology is also at risk, it could get ugly.

I'm willing to bet December sales will be a positive surprise, and I hope fuel prices will relent.



http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/25/business/yourmoney/25japan.html

Click on the above link to read about the results of both a real estate and stock market recession.

 

[robo]

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Just updated my TSP contribution for 2006 online... 15K plus 5K catch-up. Will be reflected in your pay check on pay period 1. ( 1/16/2006 )

Good Trading!!!

 

[Greg]

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[tsptalk]

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How did the I-fund go up 2 cents and MSCI go up 0.116% ?

I may be misunderstanding the question, but the I fund was also up .11% which is2 cents.

I'm sure we've all seen this before but just in case; This is from tsp.gov...

On some days, the change in the I Fund share price reported by the TSP does not match the change reported for the Morgan Stanley EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) index, which the I Fund tracks. This happens when the Board's investment manager, Barclays Global Investors (BGI) reprices its EAFE Equity Index Fund, in which the TSP invests, after the close of the foreign markets. This process, known as "fair valuation," occurs when there are large U.S. market or currency movements between the time the foreign markets close and 4:00 p.m., eastern time, when BGI's share prices are determined. Fair valuation ensures that traders cannot "market time" the I Fund by making investment decisions based on the "stale" prices, thus diluting the returns of other participants who invest in the I Fund. Because the EAFE uses the foreign market closing prices to calculate its values, its price change will differ from the TSP's on those days.

 

[Greg]

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tsptalk wrote:

the I fund was also up .11% which is2 cents.

Right.

I was referring to the EAFE fund bing down between 1.5 and 2 % at anytime on Friday from the same time on Thursday, but the MSCI and I-fund were up 0.1%. Either they paid a dividend or the I-fund is set for a 1.5-2% drop at the end of the day on Tuesday.

 

[tsptalk]

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Oh, I see.Sorry.

You would think that the EFA news would show a dividend but I don't see any mention. But you are right, something out of the ordinary obvioulsly happened.

 

[Show-me]

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All right Japan! Let's get this Santa Claus rally going. Whoo......I ate entirely to much the last two days. Wow!

 

[Spaf]

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Show-me wrote:

All right Japan! Let's get this Santa Claus rally going. Whoo......I ate entirely to much the last two days. Wow!

Are you saying you ate the rally, too! :shock: Spaf

 

[Show-me]

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Spaf wrote:

Show-me wrote:

All right Japan! Let's get this Santa Claus rally going. Whoo......I ate entirely to much the last two days. Wow!

Are you saying you ate the rally, too! :shock: Spaf

Oooooooo my, it feels like it. :l

 

[Birchtree]

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Spaf,

The Relative Strength Index has risen to a level not seen in a year, peaking the last week in November. That index measures the relationship of up to down days in the S&P 500, and when it starts climbing it's often read as a sign that the market is overheated. We have cooled conbsiderably as evidenced by your graphs - would that be your interpretation? Do we now have room to warm up again?

Dennis

 

[Quips]

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Smarty-pants, my stock broker, told me if I want to really make money I should short the S&P 500 index futures due in February.

 

[Spaf]

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Dennis,

The RSI for the S&P was 61.3.
Here are my feelings (MHO). When the market moves up moderately (even paces) with a consolidation here and there to relieve the pressure we stay away from being over bought. However, when the market moves up rapidly with no cooling down, we get overbought rather quickly. Above 70 is overbought, above 80 is critically overbought.
61 to 70 is a little wiggle room, but not much.
We will get a correction soon. And the market will cool down, to being over sold.
I'll wait for the cool down!

Rgds :^ Stay Warm Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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I've kind of decided to stop posting the Daily Edition of the Kingdom of TSP.

The Daily posting alludes to Swing trading, which that is not us, havinga 1-2 day delay, and not having a trading platform. Some folks that don't know us have referred to us at market timers. No we are not!

What a lot of us do is Position trade. So, I'm updating the (weekly) Market Talk thread to be more in line with Position trading, and the members/accounts of TSP.

Besides, My strategy needs a change! I'll soon be Spaf (r).

Rgds, be careful! Have a happy and safe New Year! Spaf

 

[Show-me]

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Quips wrote:

Smarty-pants, my stock broker, told me if I want to really make money I should short the S&P 500 index futures due in February.

Historicallyits a badmonth for the S&P. The only weak link in the "best 6 months".

 

[The_Technician]

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The EFA paid out a dividend on the 23rd of $1.11....

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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It looks like we're going null till end of year.....I'm pulling out today for sure.....no indecisions here....

:^

 

[The_Technician]

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Yield curve inverts......

http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/markets/bondcenter/treasury_yields.reut/index.htm

 

[learning]

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Spaf: When you go r, I will be happy for you :!. However, you have taught me a lot and I will be sorry to see you go. I also like the daily post as it helps me to keep track of what is going on. It is a good quick guide. Sorry to see it go too.:end:

 

[mlk_man]

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You're not gonna sail off into the wild blue wonder are ya Spaf?