Market Talk / August 27 - September 2

[mlk_man]

Can someone please tell me why when the Fed minutes said they may have to keep raising rates, small caps took off higher than the others? I feel a big bad wolf waiting on the flock..............

 

[vectorman]

Pretty quiet. Nothing to say since Milkman posted last night? I bet everyone is wondering what to do. I say by now most that took that hard ride down in May and June have by now gotten their money back plus alittle more. And are thinking I don't want to do that again. Sooo, may Tom be right, that we may getting close to a pullback soon. The trend is now up, S&P wrestling with its 06 and 01 high. Looks like some sector rotation going on as investors are now getting less defensive and moving out of the S&P into small caps and tech stocks. But who are these investors, smart or dumb money at this point in time? Also, on CNBC they are getting pretty giddy about oil going down and the S&P about to break out, maybe an contrarian indicator. I don't have the answer, but this is starting to feel like 04 all over again. Just when you think you might be getting somewhere, bang, the rug gets taken out from under you. Hopefully it won't be until Sept.

 

[mlk_man]

Bernanke and Poole both speak tomorrow. European Central Bank meets tomorrow. Last day of the month. Iran's deadline is tomorrow..............can't you just feel the excitement? :nuts:

BTW, you know how long these "deadlines" have been going on:

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=226

Hey, maybe Jimmy will hold this guy hostage!

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=8424

 

[Griffin]

Hey, maybe Jimmy will hold this guy hostage!

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=8424

The best we can hope for is that Jimmy will show him how peanuts can be converted to ethanol, reducing the US dependency on foreign oil by .00001%

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

going long 20 december russell 2000 contracts as soon as Lacker gets off Bloomberg...psyche

 

[Birchtree]

Rock on!! Quietly moving upwards - 9 month and 4 year cycle have passed. Always keep in mind that during bull markets another top is always just around the corner. Snort.

Dennis -permabull #1

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

going long 20 december russell 2000 contracts as soon as Lacker gets off Bloomberg...psyche

aannnnddddd..cover...+2.5 pts @ $50/pt x 20 contracts

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
August 30, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................I guess we're waiting for Thursday and Friday!

Con-Yak...................................Don't forget the Iran deadline is tomorrow!

Jester-Yak................................Waiting...Waiting!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1304.27, dn -0.01
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.132, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+9.588, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........95.12, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 64.29 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................70.03, up +0.32
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green / Yellow [doodles +3-2 / Lube > 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1291. Trail: 1278.

 

[Birchtree]

Robo,

So Don says the outlook for the next 6-30 months in the stock market is fantastic. I tend to agree. Nikkei is displaying some rolling thunder this evening being up + 267.80 - should be a classic thrust day tomorrow catching the big money on vacation. I remember the take off in 8'82. Anyway I'm ready to start paring my list of new additions to the tune of....well no body cares how much money I spend. Maybe 20 new stocks of the wall flower types. There is plenty of action bubbling under the surface.

Dennis -permabull #1

 

[Birchtree]

It's another new all-time high for the DJUA if it holds at 442.20

 

[Wheels]

There was a large move into the G fund amongst TSPtalkers today. I guess everyone is ignoring Tom's seasonality data. Looks like I am in the contrarian camp again (always makes me a little nervous).

 

[Griffin]

There was a large move into the G fund amongst TSPtalkers today. I guess everyone is ignoring Tom's seasonality data. Looks like I am in the contrarian camp again (always makes me a little nervous).

Your not alone. If it's any consolation, the volume today was not real light, so there may be more to these prices then ameteur pipe dreams. I'm looking at the MACD, RSI and SloSto and they are all starting to roll over, so I don't expect an upward pipe to form over the next two trading days.

I will be satisfied with not having to give back all of today's gains tomorrow, before I bail.

 

[Wheels]

I will be satisfied with not having to give back all of today's gains tomorrow, before I bail.

So it's settled then, you will be bailing tomorrow???

 

[sugarandspice]

My feeling is that until October earnings we will move sideways with small fluctuations up and down but basically stay where we are now until then. That is barring any major geopolitical B.S. I am going into timer mode and try to catch the recovery days based on momentum and carryover to the I markets. Yeah I know, who cares, she's a lucky dumbass.

 

[sugarandspice]

Sugar, finally you are starting to see it for yourself.

 

[Griffin]

So it's settled then, you will be bailing tomorrow???

Yup,

I went ahead and made the IFT/Post for tomorrow.

This is the way I see it:

If the market's up - I'll be looking for the second side of the pipe on tuesday
if it's flat, I'll be thankful that it held
if it rolls over, I'm cutting my loses

Anyway you shake it, I'm out. :nuts:

 

[Griffin]

Dave,

This is from the old Bull Pen thread

If we then get the usual options expiration sell off, Friday (or soon there after will be the buy in). I expect these wedges to break to the up side. Forming a nice cup, which of course leads to an opportunity to play the handle. But other then a few plays during future options expiration weeks, a buy and hold strategy would be the way to play it.

That is the my long range plan - and I intend to play the S-Fund all the way. I highly doubt we will see a new high for the year, but the DWCP has plenty of room for big profits as we struggle to get there.

Check this link out - I believe it's time to play the handle

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/cupHandle.html

 

[tsptalk]

There was a large move into the G fund amongst TSPtalkers today. I guess everyone is ignoring Tom's seasonality data. Looks like I am in the contrarian camp again (always makes me a little nervous).

The seasonality data around holidays hasn't been very reliable lately. Seems we are in a Bizzaro world at the moment as the market is doing the opposite of what seasonality suugests. It happens.

 

[FundSurfer]

....she's a lucky dumbass.

Lucky or sharp doesn't matter as long as the plus column keeps increasing. I'll probably do the same but I don't think I'm going to try and time the I to catch the right side of an FV. I'll just stick with what goes up will come down.

 

[FundSurfer]

- I believe it's time to play the handle

The problem with chart patterns is that when they begin to be recognized by the TV talking heads, people try and play the pattern and it doesn't happen. Talking heads are mentioning this cup and handle.