Market Talk / August 27 - September 2

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
August 31, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................The last trading day should be a good day!

Con-Yak...................................We're running kind of flat right now!

Jester-Yak................................Parking and going fishing!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1303.82, dn -0.45
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.96, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+9.720, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........95.16, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 63.86 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................70.26, up +0.23
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green / Yellow [doodles +3-2 / Lube > 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1291. Trail: 1278.

 

[Griffin]

The problem with chart patterns is that when they begin to be recognized by the TV talking heads, people try and play the pattern and it doesn't happen. Talking heads are mentioning this cup and handle.

The talking heads yelling sell may very well induce me to buy. I will be watching for the delay effect, regardless of what happens and I will probably not move on Tuesday.

 

[Birchtree]

Both the NYSE and the NASDAQ short interest numbers recently jumped to all-time highes. These numbers are high enough to give the Birchtree jock itch. 9.64 billion shares on the NYSE and 7.27 billion on NASDAQ. There is the potential for a lot of blood letting if the bears get trapped - somebody lite the fuse.

 

[robo]

8-31-06

Stocks: The Crowd Awaits Employment Report Friday

Here we are again at the beginning of a new month and the Employment Report for August will be released at 8:30am EDT Friday morning in Washington, DC. Once again, the markets' reaction to the news is the key point here, not the news itself. A weak reaction after an extended rally in stocks could be a sign of a correction starting. More likely, the market will extend the rally even further.

The first reaction will come in the futures in Chicago. At the Chicago Board of Trade, bond traders will be looking for signs of relative weakness in the numbers of new jobs and signs of contained inflation in the employment cost component. And, at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, stock index traders will be looking at the bond market and the data to determine whether the Fed has finished its rate-hike campaign and might perhaps start easing rates before too much longer. This news will hit the market before the NYSE's official opening an hour later in New York. Moves in the futures in Chicago will determine how stocks open.

After the news is out, there could be extreme volatility if historical norms are followed. But, with the long three-day weekend ahead (Labor Day), we suspect the market will settle down by noon as traders take the afternoon off.

 

[Spaf]

I hear what U guys are saying!
I looked at Tom's charts: Performance Surrounding Labor Day, the Seasonality for September, and the Stock Traders Almanac 2006, and their references to the best and worst 6 months [See: http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/default.asp?action=macd][click MACD]. Since the weather is mild, I'm gonna spend more time chasing fish than stocks. Maybe late October or early November, I'll get back in equities.
Rgds, and be careful!.............. ...............Spaf

 

[vectorman]

Info for next week.

The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Monday, September 4th, in observance of Labor Day. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (September 4th) will be processed Tuesday night (September 5th), at Tuesday's closing share prices.

 

[The_Technician]

Trade news

UN World trade news.....US overburden, Japan and Germany culprits....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060901/ap_on_bi_ge/un_trade_and_development

 

[Griffin]

8-31-06
Here we are again at the beginning of a new month and the Employment Report for August will be released at 8:30am EDT Friday morning in Washington, DC. Once again, the markets' reaction to the news is the key point here, not the news itself. A weak reaction after an extended rally in stocks could be a sign of a correction starting. More likely, the market will extend the rally even further.

Robo,

This is interesting, I would expect the opposite - if today's S&P action is sideways, then I would expect the possibility of the market moving higher next week once it shakes off the post holiday jitters, with a slow climb towards 1310. Also, I would expect the DWCP (S-fund) to continue to rally under these conditions.

Conversly, a big rally through the afternoon would take us above the current resistance levels and trigger a big sell off by the end of the day and into next week. The 1305 resistance level on the S&P got penetrated twice this week first to almost 1307 on wednesday and just barely tagged 1306 yesterday. I expect a lot of resistance around 1310. If the S&P hits this resistance and a sell off occurs, then I would expect the DWCP (S-fund) to sell off as well.

I don't think it is possible for the S&P to take out both of these resistance levels in the next few trading days.

 

[robo]

Robo,

This is interesting, I would expect the opposite - if today's S&P action is sideways, then I would expect the possibility of the market moving higher next week once it shakes off the post holiday jitters, with a slow climb towards 1310. Also, I would expect the DWCP (S-fund) to continue to rally under these conditions.

Conversly, a big rally through the afternoon would take us above the current resistance levels and trigger a big sell off by the end of the day and into next week. The 1305 resistance level on the S&P got penetrated twice this week first to almost 1307 on wednesday and just barely tagged 1306 yesterday. I expect a lot of resistance around 1310. If the S&P hits this resistance and a sell off occurs, then I would expect the DWCP (S-fund) to sell off as well.

I don't think it is possible for the S&P to take out both of these resistance levels in the next few trading days.

I agree...I'm thinking we get some consolidation here.

Some reasons:

Market is overbought

It's September

The Boyz will want to bring it down one more time so they can buy cheaper

Many are still worried about the 4 year cycle low, housing, Iran, is the Fed really done and now Charles Nenner who is watched by big money very closely.

Watch the video using the link below than click on; CNBC: Cycle Forecaster Founder Charles Nenner.

http://actualsmarts.blogspot.com/

CNBC: Cycle Forecaster Founder Charles Nenner.

It doesn't matter what I think, but when you have billion's to invest you don't jump in and out of the market daily...

Sentiment Trader pointed out; Yesterdays trading ended up with one of the tightest ranges in the past decade. The six other times in the past two years we've had this small of an intraday range, the S&P was negative three days later all 6 times, by an average of -1.2%.

Smart Money 38% Dumb money 54%

Many more to list, but I agree 1310 to 1325 will be tough...

The Market could surprise us, but I'm short-term neutral and long term bullish..

Henry and Todd are still not long and I watch them pretty close...

Todd - http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html

Henry - http://www.safehaven.com/article-5804.htm

Many others I follow are long and will stay long. They think the lows for the year are in....

We could be looking at 20% to 30% pop in 2007. Wouldn't that be nice..

That means TSPTALK top performers could have a 40% or above year. They do very well at beating the Market....

Sidenote: GO GO Birchtree!!!

 

[sugarandspice]

Lucky or sharp doesn't matter as long as the plus column keeps increasing. I'll probably do the same but I don't think I'm going to try and time the I to catch the right side of an FV. I'll just stick with what goes up will come down.

Believe me people, she is a lucky dumbass.

 

[FundSurfer]

I'm interested in seeing if the market begins to fade this afternoon. A bunch are headed for the saftey of G or F. If others do the same will the market experiance a late afternoon drag? It will be interesting to watch. Looks like it is going to be positive. I hate being on the sidelines on a green day...

 

[sugarandspice]

As far as the I fund goes I don't want to mislead people when I move to the I fund. It will not be solely for catching FV andd may not be FV related at all. But if I think one may be coming I will point that out as a reason for moving in. Otherwise if you see me move to the I with no mention of FV then it's for other reasons. Yeah I know who cares. And it is true as long as the + keeps coming I'll be a happy lucky dumbass. I really truly honestly don't care what people think I am here anyway. As someone said yesterday "on a free website"....... well never mind.....If we can rise together all the better.

 

[sugarandspice]

....... I hate being on the sidelines on a green day...

But it feels oh so good to be there on those big red days! To me that is just as good as winning. But I do know what you mean.

 

[Birchtree]

What he means is that sometimes you just have cluck, cluck.

 

[grandma]

Believe me people, she is a lucky dumbass.

No matter -
I would just like her to reach out & touch

....
I need to see duplicate results in my folder..and fast - I am a
short-termer now!!! :cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

If the shorts scramble on the last hour that could be another 50 points on the upside - could we see 11,500 on the Dow today? SPX 1310 was no sweat.

 

[vectorman]

If the shorts scramble on the last hour that could be another 50 points on the upside - could we see 11,500 on the Dow today? SPX 1310 was no sweat.

Nice rally, but the Dow is up on light volume. We'll see what happens next week when the big boys are back from vacation.

Contrarian thought: The last time I saw so many members run to the G/F fund was right before the first week of Jan 2006 exploded. But after the middle of Jan the market pulled right back.

 

[Griffin]

Is it my imagination or is the AGG (F-fund) showing green when in fact it is way down compared to yesterdays prices? Every website I go to is showing it up from the opening price instead of down from yesterday's close?

Anyone else seeing this?

 

[tsptalk]

If the shorts scramble on the last hour that could be another 50 points on the upside - could we see 11,500 on the Dow today? SPX 1310 was no sweat.

...And if the longs take profits in the last hour, before a long weekend, that could take 40 points off the upside. I guess that's why they play the game.

Actually, based on our smart/dumb money indicators, I think that is what the smart money will be doing: Taking today's seasonal strength and using it to initiate short potitions, or take profits from long positions.

 

[Show-me]

Yes, I noticed too. Look at stockcharts and yahoo. Very odd.