Market Talk / August 13 - 19

[tsptalk]

I tend to agree. When an account approaches the $50K to $100K or higher level, the new shares are of such little consequence compared to the value of the existing shares.

 

[Dave M]

This Truth Is Self Evident

All shares are created equal. But what the heck happened today? Nobody won, much. Is there a rumor circulating concerning the upcoming price indices?

Dave

 

[Birchtree]

That's what makes a market and the world go around. Yes, it does seem a little strange - but 60 x 10 = 600, and 32,000 + x 10 = 320,000 +. All I'm searching for is $1.00 gain in the C fund/year. The more shares I can DCA while on that journey the better the end result. Snort.
The action today was designed to frustrate the weaker links - pay no attention. Being a bull at the right time in the cycle is never easy - it requires stamina. That means taking some body hits along the way - that's why DCA is so useful.

 

[nnuut]

Quote Dave M: All shares are created equal. But what the heck happened today? Nobody won, much. Is there a rumor circulating concerning the upcoming price indices?

I think the Cease fire didn't quite cease, Hezbollah doesn't want to quit and Israel is still after them. This may have been enough justification for a sell off by day traders and hedge fund BOYS, Profit taking. They may also know something about the PPI and CPI that we don't. No that cant be, insider info, no, no that's against the LAW! :nuts: BBAAAHHH!

 

[ebbnflow]

All shares are created equal. But what the heck happened today? Nobody won, much. Is there a rumor circulating concerning the upcoming price indices?

Nope, the shizzle just fizzled. Must be one of those computer programmed profit-taking sell-offs. :notrust:

That's what makes a market and the world go around. Yes, it does seem a little strange - but 60 x 10 = 600, and 32,000 + x 10 = 320,000 +. All I'm searching for is $1.00 gain in the C fund/year. The more shares I can DCA while on that journey the better the end result. Snort.
The action today was designed to frustrate the weaker links - pay no attention. Being a bull at the right time in the cycle is never easy - it requires stamina. That means taking some body hits along the way - that's why DCA is so useful.

Somewhere along the way, Birchtree will need some kind of direct intervention from his DCA addiction.

 

[Birchtree]

Let's take another look - 60 shares x 26 = 1560 shares. 1560 shares x 5 years = 7,800 shares. My primary objective is to accumulate 40,000 shares and hope that it doesn't take forever. Once that objective is met and I'm even older and wiser - then out come the dual pearl handles loaded and ready. This would be some serious shooten - $20,000 a half a point channel to play in and adding even more shares. If I'm going to accept the risk and excercise the energy then I want my rewards.

 

[Wheels]

I don't know how to put multiple quotes into one post so I will just say that I strongly agree with Traffic Dog's post #20, tsptalk's post #21, the last line in ebbnflow's post #25, and the last sentence in Birchtree's post #17.

Dave
<><

P.S. Thank you to the first one who enlighten's me on how to put multiple quotes into a post.

Dave,

1

Yak

2

Yak

3

Yak

Copy to notepad, paste to message and add bracket quote=name bracket _____ bracket /quote bracket and Your Yak.
Also, the icon on your editor that looks like a message will wrap the quotes around what you highlight. But, you have to add =name to the start quote.

Rgds
Spaf

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
August 14, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Well at least we know that it can rally!

Con-Yak..................................Economic worries sucked all the steam out!

Jester-Yak...............................Shucks!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1268.21, up +1.47
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.005, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+3.085, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........36.17, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 51.03 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................73.53, dn -0.82
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Yellow [doodles +2-3 / Lube > 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1267. Trail: 1254.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Let's take another look - 60 shares x 26 = 1560 shares. 1560 shares x 5 years = 7,800 shares. My primary objective is to accumulate 40,000 shares and hope that it doesn't take forever. Once that objective is met and I'm even older and wiser - then out come the dual pearl handles loaded and ready. This would be some serious shooten - $20,000 a half a point channel to play in and adding even more shares. If I'm going to accept the risk and excercise the energy then I want my rewards.

To each his own.....

I prefer to wheelbarrow my shares down to the marketplace every morning and see if I can unload 'em at inflated prices, only to buy 'em back (and a lot more) at some later date. Plus, always weary of the bottom dropping out of the tulip bulb market. Won't buy back tulip bulbs.. maybe silicon chips...no, maybe nano chips. Really just trying to stay nimble, not intrenched.

Lets see... 35,000 in trading profits buy 2,500 C fund shares PLUS my 60 x 26 makes 4000 every 6 mos to a year. Plus, ALWAYS peel'n back the evil fish eye to see if'n the bear's com'in.

Same goal though, good luck to all of us.

 

[Birchtree]

How I miss those White Mountain summer nights - and all the raspberries one could ever want.

 

[ocean]

Let's take another look - 60 shares x 26 = 1560 shares. 1560 shares x 5 years = 7,800 shares. My primary objective is to accumulate 40,000 shares and hope that it doesn't take forever.

I too can convert my TSP balance into 32000+ C shares today if I wanted to. Using Birch formula, I will have 40,000 shares of C providing the C fund price does not change. I should be happy with the 40,000 shares of C when I retire in 5 years. But the problem for me is that I can't sit here doing nothing to see myself buying the C funds every two weeks. I think I am just like a working bee flying in and out of the flower wall.

BTW, can anyone predict the price of C fund in 5 years? G, F, S, I etc?
My guess is

G: $15.38
F: $14.22
C: $18.08
S: $21.88
I: $25.88

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

Being right and sitting tight is always difficult - excess energy needs to burn off - I often wash and wax the family autos by hand - the old fashioned way. Definitely a labor of love.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

BTW, can anyone predict the price of C fund in 5 years? G, F, S, I etc?
My guess is

G: $15.38
F: $14.22
C: $18.08
S: $21.88
I: $25.88

Ocean

I'd like to think we can do 7-9% per yr avg, which would get us north of $19.00 on the C

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Being right and sitting tight is always difficult -

When I try to be right and sit tight my wallet ends up a little light and my shorts start ride'n up a might.

So now I'm sell'in like Magellin!
And buy'n back after I pull them shorts outa my cr..k!

 

[Birchtree]

Can you just imagine all the problems you power account types would have with a $19.00 price tag on the C fund. It eventually has to come out of TSP under the watchful eye of the IRS. That's why it's good to network with Peaches. The overall goal is to reduce AGI to keep taxes minimal during transfer or shifting to an IRA. The more you take and demonstrate a 1099 the more Sam will take. It's a life long battle to keep your gains. Look at what you pay for taxes now - is that the burden you want during retirement?

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Can you just imagine all the problems you power account types would have with a $19.00 price tag on the C fund. It eventually has to come out of TSP under the watchful eye of the IRS. That's why it's good to network with Peaches. The overall goal is to reduce AGI to keep taxes minimal during transfer or shifting to an IRA. The more you take and demonstrate a 1099 the more Sam will take. It's a life long battle to keep your gains. Look at what you pay for taxes now - is that the burden you want during retirement?

Let's see...

Which is more of a burden?

A. Keeping profits small so taxes on my capital gains are small.
B. Piling up a huge balance and giving uncle sam his due.

You know it's taxed as ordinary income in the year it is taken, so with that logic I guess I should pass on the $250K salary (if offered) so as to aviod those crushing taxes....not.

 

[The_Technician]

His bull ahhhhh

I love it......their news today....."We have victory" or something like that.....if that is their idea of winning, I'd hate to see when they lose......u can count me out when that happens...:blink:

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Addendum Report
August 14, 2006​

Market report forecasts

Tuesday reports on the July producer prices.
Wednesday the consumer-prices report.


Forecasts for Tesday, call for the July producer prices PPI to show a 0.3% - 0.4% increase, which would be down from 0.5% in June, and the core PPI having a 0.2% gain, the same gain as the previous month.

Forecasts for the CPI on Wednesday were 0.4% CPI, and 0.3% core.

 

[fabijo]

Let's see...

Which is more of a burden?

A. Keeping profits small so taxes on my capital gains are small.
B. Piling up a huge balance and giving uncle sam his due.

You know it's taxed as ordinary income in the year it is taken, so with that logic I guess I should pass on the $250K salary (if offered) so as to aviod those crushing taxes....not.

My goal is to pay the most income tax per year than anyone else.

 

[James48843]

Here is a question for all of you "data" types:

It APPEARS to me that the markets, in general, appear to rise in value on the day TSP makes deposites into the market, more so than on other days. Example: "C" find rises on average higher on a day of the deposit than on other days.

Can anybody do a little digging and see if that is true? or is it just something my mind's eye is making up?

Today, for example, my TSP deposit for this pay period showed up.

And the "c" fund gained 2 cents.

Is it just me? or is that hard data?

Could be useful in knowing when to trade towards "G", and when to get back into stocks.

Just my ramblings.