Market Talk / August 13 - 19

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
August 13, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.................................We're just a little range-bound!

Con-Yak.................................Fundamentals are in a uncertain period! August is not a good month for the S&P. Energy costs are high! The economy could be slowing, and the mideast is in turmoil!

Jester-Yak..............................A muck market! Catylist needed! Mideast, UN cease-fire proposed for Monday!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,266.74, dn -12.65 for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.013, flat.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+3.487, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........45.63, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70]....50.20....[30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................74.35, dn -0.41, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow / Yellow [Doodles +1-4 / Lube > 70].

Tin Box:
Position...................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert (-1%): 1267 [broken]. Trail (-2%): 1254.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.50..F=10.77..C=13.91..S=16.34..I=19.49
....(1 week past)........G=11.49..F=10.79..C=14.04..S=16.74..I=19.70
....(2 week past)........G=11.47..F=10.74..C=14.02..S=16.69..I=19.59
....(3 week past)........G=11.46..F=10.68..C=13.60..S=16.11..I=18.76
....(4 week past)........G=11.45..F=10.65..C=13.55..S=16.38..I=18.59

 

[robo]

Stocks: Markets Mostly Down Last Week

Most markets -- commodities, bonds and stocks -- were down last week as the market adjusts to the new interest rate regime. The Fed announced it would not hike short term rates and sent the Fed-watchers into paroxysms of analysis, with the goal to determine just what the next move would be.

With world economic growth downshifting -- and possibly screeching to a halt -- central bankers are faced with a quandary: inflation or deflation? The facts indicate inflation is a danger, yet the forces of deflation are as strong as ever. Will the central bankers repeat the mistakes of 2000 and tighten too much? History says yes, but experience says the Fed learns from its mistakes and avoids them. Of course, as Jesse Livermore said, the family of mistakes has a multitude of relatives and that suggests that a recession may not be avoidable.

In any case, the current malaise of the markets may simply be an adjustment which had to be made before the next leg up in the various longer term bull markets. As such, we are, most likely, being presented with a great long term buying opportunity for when those bull markets resume.

Some leading indicators are pointing to a specific timeframe for the next bull market.

 

[robo]

Birchtree wrote:

"Buy the big dogs and go global. Henry has gone neutral I noticed. He needs more stamina."


Henry is concerned about the technicals and letting Mr. Market show it's hand... Which way will it go, Which way will it go???

The DOW Theory folks are concerned about the double top in the $TRANS and now it is headed down... ( Read articles below) I'm not saying this will happen, but Henry is playing it safe. As you know he is Bullish and will go long again soon.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5698.htm

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5695.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Robo,

My CSX completes a 2 for 1 split this week - what a great time to double up on the position. I got the money and am ready to buy on the cheap. The Dow Industrials along with the Dow Utilities will most likely pull the Transports back up to new all-time highs before the end of the year. Especially if we crack Iran on their head.

 

[The_Technician]

Robo,

My CSX completes a 2 for 1 split this week - what a great time to double up on the position. I got the money and am ready to buy on the cheap. The Dow Industrials along with the Dow Utilities will most likely pull the Transports back up to new all-time highs before the end of the year. Especially if we crack Iran on their head.

I believe we all would appreciate it Birchy if you would explain your opinion on how the Dow Indu and Util will pull up the transports before year end, I would find it interesting myself.....especially if Iran is cracked on the head.....you have the floor....

 

[The_Technician]

After reviewing the market data, I'm doubting if anybody will be smiling at the end of the week.....except the G-funders.

 

[Birchtree]

The Technician,

I'm anticipating a Dow Theory Primary buy signal confirmation before the end of the year. Some investors follow an investment system known as Dow Theory, under which simultaneous declines in the Dow Industrials and the Dow transports can signal trouble for the markets. Since the industrials haven't suffered nearly as much as the transports, the theory doesn't yet signal trouble, but some believe it is flashing a warning sign. I'm not concerned - so I will leave the worrying to you. Hope this helps. Snort.

 

[Spaf]

Birch,
Is this what you ment?
Link: > http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/dow_theory_confirmation.htm

 

[The_Technician]

The Technician,

I'm anticipating a Dow Theory Primary buy signal confirmation before the end of the year. Some investors follow an investment system known as Dow Theory, under which simultaneous declines in the Dow Industrials and the Dow transports can signal trouble for the markets. Since the industrials haven't suffered nearly as much as the transports, the theory doesn't yet signal trouble, but some believe it is flashing a warning sign. I'm not concerned - so I will leave the worrying to you. Hope this helps. Snort.

Why are you anticipating the primary buy signal to confirm??? What is happening today that will make the confirmation happen???? From what I see unless there is good reason, it can still go either way.....and if 1970's are any indication for a breakdown, when we again experienced high energy costs, along with the current expired market with high interest rates regulating any further economic prowess....

I'd bet either a null or a down stroke in the market coming for the next year, ....the current situation says so and unless you can come up with concurrent reasons to say the economic engine is ready to go gainbusters, I wouldn't believe a rebound is coming.....that is why I'm bearish.....the current economics has run its course, it doesn't just zip around and go the other way.....the economic engine is like a locomotive, it takes years to get it going and years to stop it.....(ex-anyone who votes for a president thinking he can change economics overnight is going to get what is coming to such ignorant ideas) We're geared for no corporate profits in the end and its from rapid global economic expansion....the only reason we have what good economy we have today is due to the fact that the corporate heads exploited thru "Free Trade Agreement" and other global bills thru their special interest in Congress.....in other words the local income was going to drop and now it is getting too difficult for anyone working in the great USA to buy what had been customary in the past.....so the net end is low corporate profits and you can see it start happening in the Wilshire 4500 of late....

So based on our current economic's, we will have to just wait until the steam can be regenerated for a new economic wave to come along....and that will require reinvesting in the Great USA.....but in the meantime, we have a major global catastrophe happening in the Middle east....and at home....

I wonder what those guys are going to do with all those phones, remote control....weapons????......I think I will start keeping an eye on my neighbor for a while and I would suggest everyone else do too.....maybe they should put a automatic shut down on the cell phone networks if things get outta hand.....

 

[Spaf]

that is why I'm bearish.....the current economics has run its course,

I wonder what those guys are going to do with all those phones, remote control....weapons????.......

Tech,
What I heard was:
1. The rising energy prices are costing the american consumer $600 million a day.
2. Home equity loans are the new ATM.
3. There is a chip or something in the cell phone thats used to detonate an IED.
Fact or fiction?

 

[Fivetears]

Fact Spaf! The vibrator circuit is used. The cell / pager is the detonator. :notrust:

There is a chip or something in the cell phone thats used to detonate an IED.
Fact or fiction?

 

[mailmanusa]

Yeah, They attach the cell phone to the IED. Plant the IED and hide out, usually within view. Then when the time is right for maximum death/destruction, they dial the # of the phone attached to IED.....BOOM!!!

 

[Wheels]

The shrewdest of TSPtalkers should have been using a logic line something like this for this week. "Wheels has been way off his game for a month or two. Wheels moved out of the S and into the I for today. Therefore, the S should finally start to outperform again and the dollar should continue rally."

We'll see.

Dave
<><

 

[Pilgrim]

Techs are really cooking today! In all the talk about "new funds", about "L-funds" and speculation about "real estate funds", WHY has TSP never give us a tech fund?? The whole world follows the Nasqaq. Why can't we?

 

[Birchtree]

If one looks at a graph of the R2k there is a triple bottom being placed at the 1/06 support line - this is really tempting from a contrarian viewpoint. I plan to peel off more at the next new all-time high. Snort.

 

[Dave M]

Out Of The Red Into The Black

Wheels, why did you give up on the S?

For anyone 100%-in today, you are gonna do well.

Dave

 

[Birchtree]

When a participant has a super power account it boils down to the level endurance for pain - some are accustomed to pain and others avoid the sensation. I actually function better when my pain threshold is elevated - I enjoy the pricing that is the benefit of stamina. Or perhaps I'm just foolish.

 

[dell]

Looks like another failed rally. Market still can not find a foothold. I am still waiting on a confirmation the market has turned around and is a sustainable uptrend.

Best - Dell

 

[tsptalk]

The shrewdest of TSPtalkers should have been using a logic line something like this for this week. "Wheels has been way off his game for a month or two. Wheels moved out of the S and into the I for today. Therefore, the S should finally start to outperform again and the dollar should continue rally."

Looks like a good move afterall - unless FV gets you.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

I actually function better when my pain threshold is elevated - I enjoy the pricing that is the benefit of stamina. Or perhaps I'm just foolish.

I don't know what to think of someone who enjoys seeing the value of 32,000 shares of C fund go down so he can pick up 60 shares on the cheap. Hmmmm.......