Market Talk / August 13 - 19

[rokid]

I looked into that about a year ago. It seemed that the market was always up on the day my deposit was made.

However, after looking at about 12 months of data, in fact, the market was up about 50% of the time on deposit day and down about 50% of the time. In other words, there was no discernible pattern. Duh.:cheesy:

If you discover something different, please post.

 

[Show-me]

PPI up 0.1%

Core down 0.3%

 

[Show-me]

Talking heads are calling it an anomaly and to be cautious. I say YIPPEE!

 

[dell]

I am cautious and watching, but this morning I am changing my allocation from 70% G / 30 I to 10% G, 20% C, 30% S, and 40% I.

Best - Dell

 

[ckb21401]

I looked into that about a year ago. It seemed that the market was always up on the day my deposit was made.

However, after looking at about 12 months of data, in fact, the market was up about 50% of the time on deposit day and down about 50% of the time. In other words, there was no discernible pattern. Duh.:cheesy:

If you discover something different, please post.

Since paydates vary so much in the federal government, this seems like it would be tough to rely on. Also, the date they buy varies a little bit around my paydays.

Aug 25 is my next payday and the TSP usually buys the day before.

Craig

 

[James48843]

There is an excellent article in today's Washington Post, that mentions saving for retirement, and how TSP holders seem to be a bit ahead of non-government workers. It's based on an OPM survey of "retirement readiness" of federal employees.

Here is the link:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/14/AR2006081401180.html

Among the highlights-
" As of June 30, the average TSP account balance was $61,221 for participants covered by FERS, a spokesman said. The average account balance was $52,356 for employees covered by the older CSRS."

 

[Birchtree]

Today looks like the same old story - only today we hold all day. No last hour drop. The opening volume this morning was 5 to 1 on the upside - someone is buying. Snort

 

[Birchtree]

And let's go for a close above resistance of 1290 on the SPX - bring back the guys resting out on Fire Island. They could miss a good move. Snort.

 

[tsptalk]

Tomorrow's CPI will be key. It could trigger a sell off of today's gains, or be the catalyst to propel us out of the recent trading range. Roll the bones.

I heard on CNBC this morning that many people were planning to sell today's rally as they are not expecting it to hold. Once again the market likes to disappoint those who think they know what is going to happen and so far it is doing just that as the rally is indeed holding on today (so far).

 

[dell]

Any thoughts on what the number will be? What would hurt the market and what would help?

Dell

 

[Birchtree]

It was an excellent day for metals - not gold but steel. I don't think the CPI number will matter that much - it's the trend that is important. Inflation is peaking.

 

[tsptalk]

Any thoughts on what the number will be? What would hurt the market and what would help?

Estimates are:
.4% CPI
.3% Core CPI

I assume anything higher than estimates would hurt.

 

[Birchtree]

I hate to use profanity - but Allah the targets were falling today. We had a 5 to 1 on the A/D line. Tomorrow could be a repeat - Snort.

 

[dell]

What time does the CPI come out? 8:30am EST?

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
August 15, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Lower inflation plays higher then mideast peace!

Con-Yak..................................Lube still holds above 73!

Jester-Yak...............................Ok it's the economy!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1285.58, up +17.37
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.006, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+4.120, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........41.79, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 59.57 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................73.05, dn -0.48
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green / Yellow [doodles +5-0 / Lube > 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1272. Trail: 1259.

 

[Show-me]

What time does the CPI come out? 8:30am EST?

Yep!

 

[Show-me]

Cpi

CPI 0.4% EXPECTED 0.4%

CORE CPI 0.2% EXPECTED 0.3%

This should be good! Core down 0.1% of what was expected. Yippee!:nuts:

Weak housing starts.

 

[James48843]

snorrrrrt ! ! !

 

[nnuut]

SNIRT!!!!!!!:nuts:

 

[Wheels]

Man, so many questions to answer and only a few more minutes to answer them. Will the S&P break 1290? Will Asia drop tonight after last night's big gains? Will the dollar rally tomorrow after several days of falling? Will the FTSE pop tomorrow after lagging badly the last couple of days? Will Barclays apply an FV tonight? Why has the S fund mocked me so over the last several weeks?

What to do, what to do.

Dave
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