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Market Talk / August 13 - 19
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
sugarandspice
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 31
Can it be?
Was this the best week of the year so far? I cant remember one this good in a long time.
Was this the best week of the year so far? I cant remember one this good in a long time.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
ocean,
You're demonstrating the potential power that is present with a power account. Gains like that can be an incentive for the others to continue to accumulate and build resources. You may make even more next week. We are heading for new all-time highs all around. Snort.
Dennis - permabull #1
You're demonstrating the potential power that is present with a power account. Gains like that can be an incentive for the others to continue to accumulate and build resources. You may make even more next week. We are heading for new all-time highs all around. Snort.
Dennis - permabull #1
Stocks pull off a winsugarandspice said:
Microsoft helps tech turnaround, Nasdaq posts biggest one-week gain in over three years.
By Alexandra Twin and Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writers
August 18 2006: 5:04 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks pulled off a late day comeback Friday, turning around a session that saw tech mostly in the red and which led the Nasdaq to post its highest one week percentage gain in over three years.
The Dow Jones industrial average (up 46.51 to 11,381.47, Charts) and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 (up 4.82 to 1,302.30, Charts) index both gained about 0.4 percent.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Robo,
Will Henry wait for the correction that is not coming or will he jump in? The money flow and volume has been real positive - this is more than short covering. The Bears will be out talking bull head fake all weekend - that's perfect from my perspective. It's time to buy with abandon.
Dennis - permabull #1
Will Henry wait for the correction that is not coming or will he jump in? The money flow and volume has been real positive - this is more than short covering. The Bears will be out talking bull head fake all weekend - that's perfect from my perspective. It's time to buy with abandon.
Dennis - permabull #1
Birchtree said:
Birch,
Hope you were right. One thing can't be denied is that even the Technical Analysis charts on C/S/I indicated that this is the case. After Monday pullback if there is one, I may jump back in. But I will not able to monitor the market for the rest of the week as I will be on TDY though. Happy investing.
Ocean
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 470
Birchtree said:
Birchtree,
Henry and 4 others are still in cash and netural. Next week is historical a bad week. Will they buy on any weakness next week or is it Blast-off? I would think we get some consolidation before the next leg up... Henry must decided soon. He has been advising buying sectors and some indivdual stocks, big caps of course, but no buy on the indexes...The days before and after Labor Day could could take us to the new highs as you mentioned. As Henry always states, " Readers stayed Tuned."
I doubt he will chase this rally, but the Bears are in real trouble here.... Bear Market Rally, or is this the real deal?
August 31 thru the 1st week in September has strong Seasonality. I might buy stock on weakness, if we get any next week...
Maybe Tom will post a chart or two from SentimentTrader. I get his service, but I can't post the data due to it being a paid service...
I'm currently short the QQQQ's OUCH!!!!! If we get no pull-back next week I will exit and lick my wounds... A more appropriate statement is I'll get stitches for my bleeding wounds...
Last edited:
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 470
The Trend Is Your End Until You Bend, My Friend
In my recent Trading Markets article, I draw upon the excellent research of the Barchart site and track the performance of 12 technical trading systems in the S&P 500 (SPY) market. What I found was that, for the past two years, 11 of the 12 have been unprofitable--many of these unusually so. The system that buys upward readings in the 40-day Commodity Channel Index (and sells downward readings) was unprofitable 84% of the time, losing the equivalent of almost 260 S&P futures points during a bull market!
Trading a shorter time frame, with a system that tracks crossovers of dual channels around moving averages (8 and 10-day; buying moves above the upper channels; selling moves below the lower channels) results in more trades over the two-year period (101), with 28 winners and 73 losers. That particular effort resulted in the equivalent of over 200 lost S&P futures points since August, 2004.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/
In my recent Trading Markets article, I draw upon the excellent research of the Barchart site and track the performance of 12 technical trading systems in the S&P 500 (SPY) market. What I found was that, for the past two years, 11 of the 12 have been unprofitable--many of these unusually so. The system that buys upward readings in the 40-day Commodity Channel Index (and sells downward readings) was unprofitable 84% of the time, losing the equivalent of almost 260 S&P futures points during a bull market!
Trading a shorter time frame, with a system that tracks crossovers of dual channels around moving averages (8 and 10-day; buying moves above the upper channels; selling moves below the lower channels) results in more trades over the two-year period (101), with 28 winners and 73 losers. That particular effort resulted in the equivalent of over 200 lost S&P futures points since August, 2004.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 470
Technical market report for August 19, 2006.
The good news is: Last weeks blast off was reminiscent of August 1982, also a 2nd year in the Presidential cycle and considered by some to mark the beginning of the bull market that ran until 2000.
Short term
Overbought and oversold have been defined in many ways, my favorite is simply counting the number of consecutive days the market has moved in the same direction. Using 3 consecutive days in either direction as a starting point for an overbought or oversold condition, each additional day in the same direction represents a more extreme condition. Last week all of the major indices were up every day leaving the market overbought by this measure.
Conclusion
Because of the lack of new highs it is likely the move last week was a bear market rally rather than the beginning of a new bull market.
I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday August 25 than they were on Friday August 18.
This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.
They can sign up at:
http://alphaim.net/signup.html
If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.
Thank you,
Mike Burk
YTD W18/L6/T9
The good news is: Last weeks blast off was reminiscent of August 1982, also a 2nd year in the Presidential cycle and considered by some to mark the beginning of the bull market that ran until 2000.
Short term
Overbought and oversold have been defined in many ways, my favorite is simply counting the number of consecutive days the market has moved in the same direction. Using 3 consecutive days in either direction as a starting point for an overbought or oversold condition, each additional day in the same direction represents a more extreme condition. Last week all of the major indices were up every day leaving the market overbought by this measure.
Conclusion
Because of the lack of new highs it is likely the move last week was a bear market rally rather than the beginning of a new bull market.
I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday August 25 than they were on Friday August 18.
This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.
They can sign up at:
http://alphaim.net/signup.html
If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.
Thank you,
Mike Burk
YTD W18/L6/T9
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Robo,
If we get another take off like 1982 - it will melt my shoes. The thought of it makes my feet want to dance. Honestly, patience is virtuous but I've been waiting too long to even consider a move like that one. But stranger things have happened and no one would suspect that kind of power to emerge at this period in the cycle - unless we are in back to back secular mega bull trends. I won't even think about it - but if it happens I'm prepared for the ride of a second lifetime.
Dennis - permabull#1
If we get another take off like 1982 - it will melt my shoes. The thought of it makes my feet want to dance. Honestly, patience is virtuous but I've been waiting too long to even consider a move like that one. But stranger things have happened and no one would suspect that kind of power to emerge at this period in the cycle - unless we are in back to back secular mega bull trends. I won't even think about it - but if it happens I'm prepared for the ride of a second lifetime.
Dennis - permabull#1
Iran and oil may be wild cards for stocks
NEW YORK - Wall Street may hit some turbulence next week, with Iran's nuclear dispute with the West poised to come to a head and the latest earnings reporting season all but done. Analysts said developments surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions probably will keep stock investors on edge. They believe the stock market also is likely to consolidate some of this week's gains. Besides keeping tabs on geopolitical events, investors also will have to contend with speeches by several Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to address an economic forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Symbol=US:LOW&Feed=OBR&Date=20060819&ID=5958642
NEW YORK - Wall Street may hit some turbulence next week, with Iran's nuclear dispute with the West poised to come to a head and the latest earnings reporting season all but done. Analysts said developments surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions probably will keep stock investors on edge. They believe the stock market also is likely to consolidate some of this week's gains. Besides keeping tabs on geopolitical events, investors also will have to contend with speeches by several Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to address an economic forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Symbol=US:LOW&Feed=OBR&Date=20060819&ID=5958642
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