Market Talk / April 30 - May 6

[Wizard]

G Fund: 66.6 billion

Gold 666.60
Natural gas (Henry Hub): 6.66

 

[The_Technician]

Its so quiet you can hear

a pin drop......ewwwwwweeeeeeeee!!!!

Boy when this thing breaks down, its gonna be one helluvvvv a ride down.....

Ridem cowboy yeee haaaa!!!!

 

[Birchtree]

It eventually will probably break down - but will be from much higher levels. The DJTA will likely continue to pull up the DJIA and then the DJU. Let'er rip - snort, snort.

 

[Wizard]

This market has one or two rate hikes left in it.

Measured against gold the SPX is down 32% in the last 11 months. :worried:

Got gold?

 

[James48843]

Thats about says the average participant has an allocation of:
38%-G
06%-F
40%-C
08%-S
08%-I

No, that is not what the average participant has as an allocation. That is what the funds themselves contain as the spread of where the money is (or was on Dec 31, 2005). But that doesn't necessarily correlate with what the average particpant has for a spread.

IN fact, there are hudreds of thousands still with everything in "G", and no exposure to stocks at all.

And also there are those like me, with everything in stocks (currently 80% "I", 10% each in "C" and "S")

I did read somewhere last fall that allocations into the "L" funds were going very well, ahead of what the original designers were forecasting, as more people moved out of "G" only and into the "L" funds, as well as some people who are spreading thier money around multiple ways-

That is right- there are some individuals who are spread between C,F,I,S, and L10,L20, L income, etc.

I guess they must think that is diversification.

The good thing is at least those too timid to do anything except "G" now feel they have a choice, without feeling they will be as responsible for their own decision should their funds tumble.

Allways be ready for a rough ride, just in case. You never know when something is going to blindside you and shake the markets down. Just watch, and be ready to pull the trigger and bail out if the time comes.

 

[roguewave]

You can see how much was invested in each of the funds, in the annual report and fund description at:
http://www.tsp.gov/rates/fundsheetpkg.pdf
which has data current as of Dec 31, 2005,


and also the "financial statement" which has data from the close of 2004, at:

http://www.tsp.gov/forms/financial-stmt.pdf



A quick look at the december, 2005 data showed:

G Fund: 66.6 billion
F Fund: 10.6 billion
C Fund: 68.9 billion
S Fund: 14.1 billion
I Fund: 13.1 billion.

Again, that was as of December 31, 2005. I would presume more people have moved more into I fund in the last couple months- a lot of the folks in my office have done so.

I don't know where to find anything more current that the end of Dec 2005 data.

James and Spaf, thanks for coming up with the data so quickly. It's great to see that there are much more I funders then I would have thought. Makes me smile.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 4, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks up! We've changed direction again.
Other Yak................................Lube under 70.
Jester Yak...............................Up dn up dn up.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1312.25, up +4.40
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.014, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+3.908, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........81.14, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 56.85 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................69.84, dn -2.34
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................?? Better use a dart board!

Tin Box:
Position.....................................0% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1306. Trail: 1294.

 

[James48843]

C FUND
14.33

S FUND
18.06

I FUND
20.49


A Go Go.

(What strength! Go "I" Go! )


*much of which is from the continued tumbling of the dollar!

 

[James48843]

You know what is really amazing to me?

The 3.2 MILLION federal employees, military members, and federal retirees have contributed or grown, since the mid 1980's, a total of about 170 BILLION dollars now maintained in their TSP accounts.

(20 + years)

And yet that is only the about the amount of money (112 BILLION) that the Senate passed today, in one supplemental bill, to aid in Katrina, plus pork, plus Iraq war.

Think about that. This one bill is almost going to spend as much as what it took the 3.2 million of us to save up over twenty years.

Things that make you go Hmmm.....

 

[Birchtree]

Makes me want to buy more lumber stocks, materials of all kinds, the Al Gore legacy toilets and assortment of hardware along with cement and roof trusses. This will be better than an emerging market. Load me up.

 

[FundSurfer]

Re: A morning thought

....but you gotta admit, the market isn't at a bottom and the economics isn't prime...there are factors getting in the way for the economics to continue to be bullish........this is a very risky situation we're in ...

At some point you have to look at the charts and admit your system let you down. The charts are headed up relentlessly. Catch the wave. I'll admit from a technical standpoint the market is long overdue but you gotta ride the wave you are given. You keep waiting for the perfect wave and all you'll catch is a sunburn.

.....and I think you are going to see me do some very daring trading in the near future when things are going down......
...

Hey, you may know a bunch of things I don't. I just use a simple method and try to keep my emotions out of it... that's when I loose a percent or so. I'm looking forward to seeing the Technician in action.

 

[Spaf]

Back to this TSP thing!

I didn't mean to get James upset about my Spaf math. But, I have a hard time understanding why 3.2 million Federal employees have only 170 billion in TSP.
It seems the number should be much higher? Dividing 3.2m into 170b comes out to about 53,000.
Something here I don't understand!.............. ...............Spaf

 

[James48843]

Dividing 3.2m into 170b comes out to about 53,000.
Something here I don't understand!.............. ...............Spaf

Yes, I think that is about what the average account is holding right now-

Remember, those who are already retired are taking them down, not going up necessarily.

And those in the military don't get matching funds, so those accounts are not as big.

I have both a military and a regular account. My regular has been building since I started with the govt in 1993. My military account started when I could, in the Guard, and only had a year before I retired, so it's balance is tiny. Just enough to continue in existance. Probably a good number of accounts like that, less than 10K in them, exist for a lot of Guard /TReserve members.

So perhaps 53K aveage overall is about right. I'll have to go check and see if I can find any actual data on average account size.


Ahhh.. here. A Washington Post article from

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/17/AR2005101701527.html?referrer=email

That says:
================================
As of Sept. 30, the average account balance of an employee covered by the Federal Employees Retirement System was $56,494. The average account balance was $47,319 for a CSRS-covered employee and $5,856 for members of the uniformed services, including the military. The average account balance is lower for members of the uniformed services because they were not allowed to begin making TSP contributions until January 2002.
==================================

So, you are correct- 56K per is average.

 

[Spartan]

May 5 8:30 AM Average Workweek
May 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
May 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
May 5 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
May 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit

On the plate for today. Depends on the numbers, markets could rise or fall.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm hanging out for a triple digit day - gets us closer to 11,722.98. May could end up even better than January - then I play all summer and remain invested to the hilt. Certainly enjoy my dividends for reinvestment.

 

[Wimpy]

A quick look at the december, 2005 data showed:

G Fund: 66.6 billion
F Fund: 10.6 billion
C Fund: 68.9 billion
S Fund: 14.1 billion
I Fund: 13.1 billion.

The December data certainly debunks the often touted baloney about the C-Fund being the contrarian play.

I think there are still a lot of folks out there who are hoping for the roaring nineties to return to regain their losses. Ain't gonna happen!

If the dollar is revalued or devalued downward 20% this year, ALL funds lose their purchasing power. If the I-Fund goes up 30%, that will only represent a net gain of 10%. If the C-Fund gains 10%, it simply breaks even. I think it will be a net loser this year and beyond.

The I-Fund is definitely the contrarian play here despite rhetoric to the contrary. Investors need to squeeze all the gains they can out of the funds and HOPE they can overcome the friction of inflation (devaluation).

Interest rate hikes will kill the housing market (and common equities) and still won't attract new money to the dollar until the hikes raise rates to double digits.

The Asian markets are internalizing with each other leaving them less dependent upon Americans.

China is building a massive highway system, has three of the largest dams in the world, is building a rail system into Tibet that reaches an altitude of 16,000 feet (the rail cars will be pressurized), and many of their population are watching TVs powered by Honda generators. These people will be putting tremendous pressure on their leaders to continue with economic expansion so they too can enjoy what Americans have lost and are continuing to lose. The Chinese leadership is rising to the challenge and is acquiring natural resources through trade alliances versus war (theft). The Asians, unlike Americans, are SAVERS and will be able to SUSTAIN themselves through any bad times and actually PROSPER. The Chinese are smart. On the economic battlefield, they win! The economic battlefield will be the only battlefield that counts in the future. He who has the gold...makes the rules. Got gold?

 

[Spartan]

Wimpy, all I hear from you are the problems. I dont hear any answers. Your purpose for the bearish dogma? Save us all from the pending economic windfall?

If you had answers, you should share them. Since you don't, save the rhetoric and polemics for the enemy. I hear the Saudi Arabian investors are pitching some of your bill, maybe they'd like your rassle.

Or maybe we need more people like you in office, so you dont smile away and say it will all be ok. I hear Bush is having a hard time even convincing himself of that nowadays.

You must have lost a lot of money in the US funds eh?

 

[Wizard]

I hear the Saudi Arabian investors are pitching some of your bill, maybe they'd like your rassle.

Stock crash shatters Saudi dreams

An attempt to spread Saudi Arabia's oil wealth through mass share ownership has ended in tears for many ordinary Saudis after a stock market crash.

It was meant to be Saudi Arabia's bold effort at fairly distributing the vast wealth of another oil boom.

But hundreds of thousands have had their fingers burnt in a stock market crash since February that has sheared 40% from the value of the Arab world's largest bourse.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/74BB7379-28FC-48E2-9F51-F74892F0501C.htm

:worried:

Wimpy gets it. Brazilians invested in their stock market were happy as pigs in mud even thou their currency was falling off the table (sound familiar?). You hear the U.S. stocks markets are hitting 6 years high. If you are a buy and hold investor that means if you invested money 6 years ago you are now breaking even. Oh you will hear with reinvested dividends at lower prices you are "ahead" 7%. However, those folks do not factor in inflation and the buying power you have lost the last six years holding U.S. denomiated assets.

To keep up with the value of gold the DOW would need to be 32000. Valued in gold the DOW is really around 5600.

You do not see it but your real wealth is being inflated away. Do not worry - you will grasp this soon enough but probably to late for most of you.

 

[Brett]

Reading this morning’s commentary, I know he’s right. BUT, am I wrong if I to hang on to the I fund until it tanks? Worst case is that we would take a two trading day beating before we could change our allocation; is that enough time to keep from losing 10%? I can see the rational of perhaps losing 5% on gains to keep from losing 10%. But how critical is it to get out early??

 

[learning]

If we knew what to do we would all be Trillion airs. In the end it is your retirement, do what you think is best. It could be a quick climb or fall. It could sideways travel for a while. Read, listen, learn then decide what to do.