Market Talk / April 30 - May 6

[learning]

Wizard. Take a look at the market and compare it to inflation. Overall, the market returns some 18% a year. Wait, you say... look at the bad years where we had market crashes. Yea, then see what the market did in other years. It came back with a vengeance. That is how the rich get richer. Not, by working but by investing. Provided this is all true, (I only know what I have read over the years) then has inflation been above 18%? Inflation has not been running 18% a year so it is all good. Yes, I like the I fund. I got scared out of the S fund. However, I am just "learning".

 

[Show-me]

The Asians, unlike Americans, are SAVERS and will be able to SUSTAIN themselves through any bad times and actually PROSPER. The Chinese are smart. On the economic battlefield, they win! The economic battlefield will be the only battlefield that counts in the future. He who has the gold...makes the rules. Got gold?

This may no longer be true. The saver part. Newsweek has a nice article in it about the Chinese spending everything they have "living for the moment".

 

[Wizard]

Priced in gold.

Priced in silver - it is even more ugly. :blink:

 

[Wizard]

Wizard. Take a look at the market and compare it to inflation.

Price of gold is a good indicator of inflation. Please take a peek at the chart I just posted above. Inflating your wealth away (by printing new USDs - at a rate of 9% year on year) is a lot easier to swallow then just transferring your wealth out of your bank account.

 

[Wizard]

Wizard. Take a look at the market and compare it to inflation. Overall, the market returns some 18% a year.

You pulled a Kudlow. :nuts:

The historic rate is more like 10%.

The USD has lost 50% of it value in the last 30 years so it is all relative.:embarrest:

You "think you have more" but really you have less but you feel good about it. :nuts:

 

[Wizard]

This may no longer be true. The saver part. Newsweek has a nice article in it about the Chinese spending everything they have "living for the moment".

This is the youngsters. The old farts are hording. Sort of like in the U.S. but our old fart age is a lot higher. :worried:

 

[Wizard]

08:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Y-O-Y RISE MOST SINCE AUG. 2001
08:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL CONSTRUCTION PAYROLLS UP 10,000
08:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS UP 19,000
08:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. FEB., MARCH PAYROLLS REVISED DOWN BY TOTAL OF 36,000
08:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL EMPLOYMENT PARTICIPATION RATE STAYS AT 66.1%
08:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL AVERAGE WORKWEEK RISES TO 33.9 HOURS.
08:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 3.8% YEAR-OVER-YEAR
08:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 0.5% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED
08:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL JOBLESS RATE REMAINS AT 4.7% AS EXPECTED
08:30 AM ET 5/5/06 U.S. APRIL NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 138,000 VS. 199,000 EXPECTED

Got gold?

 

[Pilgrim]

Obviously bad for U.S. stocks, but what effect will this have on the dollar? Is this positive or negative for I fund?

 

[Wizard]

Obviously bad for U.S. stocks, but what effect will this have on the dollar? Is this positive or negative for I fund?

Bad for the USD. They will spin it good for stocks because the Fed is "one and done" - you probably have been hearing that for 2 years now?. But these talking head morons do not tell you the Fed job is to protect the USD not stock prices. Yep, CNBC is all ready spinning the Fed is one and done - bullish for stocks. Like a 2000 echo chamber that took six years to reverberate.

 

[Wizard]

8:40 Dollar falls sharply after payrolls report
8:38 Gold futures up $7.30 at $683.30 an ounce

And the dumb money stock market will rally. :blink:

Slowing growth and raising wages is not good moving forward.

 

[James48843]

BUT, am I wrong if I to hang on to the I fund until it tanks? Worst case is that we would take a two trading day beating before we could change our allocation; is that enough time to keep from losing 10%? I can see the rational of perhaps losing 5% on gains to keep from losing 10%. But how critical is it to get out early??

There are scenarios in which you could get hit with a two-trading day 10% or more crash. Not real likely, but well within the realm of being possible. Another "trade towers" would do it, I think, or similar event. His note this morning also makes me think a little more.

I'm prepped right now by placing my interfund transfer orders in the evening, and then I can cancel in the morning if it looks like a strong up day afterall.

If it starts to go south, then I can just let the order execute, with less of a chance of being "too late" for that day.

If my request to transfer out is ahead of others, then it is more likely to be executed on the day in question. If there is an "event", and everybody tries to make a trade, then those in line first will have a higher chance of being executed that day.

Just my theory, anyway. If there is some kind of "event", and trading is halted, then it really doesn't matter anyway, now does it?

 

[Wizard]

USD is getting torched.

You have to ask? :laugh:

Go shopping - don't worry:

 

[James48843]

Wow.

I just looked at the Euro and the Yen vs. the dolllar.

What a tanking! http://finance.yahoo.com/currency

And it looks like foreign stocks are VERY green today-
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

I'm cancelling my shift out of I that I had placed last night. This is going to be a huge up day for "I" fund.

Could be the move up Tom was talking about.

 

[Wizard]

Wow.

I just looked at the Euro and the Yen vs. the dolllar.

What a tanking! http://finance.yahoo.com/currency

Yeap, get ready for those rude Europeans with their black socks up to their knees while wearing shower shoes being jerks going on vacation to the U.S. "on the cheap" this summer not adhereing to no smoking signs.

The U.S. is turning into a third world cheap vacation destination for the world.

Oh the days when we were able to travel to other countries to go on vacation because of our strong USD. Just take a trip the to the UK and pay $14 (equivelant) for a 12 inch Subway sandwich - and that is not the meal deal and see what I mean. A half decent hotel room - forget about it. Hotel Under the Bridge for us Americans.

 

[FundSurfer]

Wizard, take your graph of DJIA and DJIA/gold and plot it on log scale. You'll see that there are other times that the discrepancy was as large. The problem with your graph is that because of growth the chart in the 2000's looks way bigger than the 80's. Percentage wise that isn't the case. I'll agree with you that I don't like the implications, but your graph make's it look wose than what it actually is.

 

[mlk_man]

Don't ya just love all the doom and gloom data. Especially when people keep right on making money............one day you guys will get it right. Now I don't really understand all the economics involved, nor do I care. I do know that most of the analysts on CNBC to include Cramer have called it right so far. The market keeps going up. I don't think Wiz and Tech have called it right since 2002.

I agree with Brett, why fight it unless you're a market timer and try to catch the dips? The trend is your friend..................




Oh well, it's entertaining if nothing else.



Sort of like this guy. I swear to tell the truth.........LOL

 

[Wizard]

Making money in a currency that is getting impaled. That is like keeping putting money in a bank account that is not yours.

Are you a Brazilian? As much as I want too, I am not referring to the nut.

The Brazilians had your mind set. Then their currency went to 0. U.S. stock prices go up, USD goes down. You are losing real money but happy about it. I guess that is all that counts.

 

[mlk_man]

All I know is that I can't do anything about so I might as well go ahead and "try" to make money from it instead of stressing out about how bad everything is.

Can't take it with ya................

 

[Wizard]

Wizard, take your graph of DJIA and DJIA/gold and plot it on log scale. You'll see that there are other times that the discrepancy was as large. The problem with your graph is that because of growth the chart in the 2000's looks way bigger than the 80's. Percentage wise that isn't the case. I'll agree with you that I don't like the implications, but your graph make's it look wose than what it actually is.

I am using the chart in regards to the shrills taughting the U.S. indexes are hitting 6 year highs. Priced in "real money" the U.S. indexes are crashing. Your networth is being inflated away but some seem to be very happy about it.

 

[Wizard]

All I know is that I can't do anything about so I might as well go ahead and "try" to make money from it instead of stressing out about how bad everything is.

Can't take it with ya................

Get your assets out of the USD? I took a job overseas and "agreed" to be paid in the local currency five years ago. I am one highly paid mo fo now. When I go back to the states on vacation I feel like a billionaire but it is just the change in currency values. :nuts:

Note: 6 years ago. Time does fly.