Market Talk / April 30 - May 6

[Spartan]

It is a nice cap. I nice and shiny helmet fashioned of IAU and SLV. It protects me from GM and USDEUR=x and stray bullets from haji. I have a spear, FXI and it is forged in the mountains of EWZ.

I know you have one or two in your arsenal.

On a more serious note, we are not going to shoot the messenger. But that seems to be all you are, a messenger. Anytime you want to step up as opposed to side step, it would do some good.

 

[Spartan]

Aww wimpy, you gave me negative reputation. Is that your spear?

Were you invested in Enron?

 

[Wimpy]

Spear this Sparticus

Goss Resigns as CIA Director
By KATHERINE SHRADER, AP
WASHINGTON (May 5) - CIA Director Porter Goss resigned suddenly Friday, nudged out after a turmoil-filled 18 months at the spy agency as it struggled to forge a new identity in an era of intelligence blunders and government overhauls.
http://articles.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20060505135509990016

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This will nudge the dollar down even further. Anytime you have a sudden resignation in the CIA, at this level, with no immediate replacement…you’ve got BIG problems. Bush’s administration appears to be unraveling.

 

[tsptalk]

It's nice to know people are profiting from my comments. God knows I'm not.

As always, listen to what I say, but don't do what I do.

Tom had this in his comments from April 18th.

" That is not great news for the interest rate story. This also put pressure on the U.S. dollar which dropped more than modestly yesterday helping out the I fund. The EAFE was actually down .34% in local (international) currency. In U.S. dollars the EAFE was up .92% proving once again just how much of an impact the fluctuations of the dollar have on international indexes and the I fund.
The recent uptrend was again broken. The question is, was that just a test of the recent low, or is the current uptrend in jeopardy? If it is coming to an end, the I fund would be your best bet for stocks for a while."

Since Apr 18th, the I fund has increased 99 cents a share. ( and still climbing??? )


And again Tom's comments from April 20th

" The 10-day moving average of the of the OEX put/call (options) indicator is showing us that the smart money is actually loading up on call options, telling us that the more sophisticated traders and investors are getting more bullish. This is a positive for the market. The indicator isn't quite at a buy signal but the closer it gets to the .90, the more likely the market will give us a week or two of solid gains.
It is not a long term indicator but it quite good at finding short term market bottoms. Which is also true of the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. This one blew me away. Even after Tuesday's nearly 2% gain in stocks, and Wednesday's follow through, the new survey actually came in at 34% bullish, 41% bearish. That 41% bearish is a key number as it can indicate a short term bottom. At the market bottom in October it hit 46%, and in early January it hit 40%. Both preceded rallies. "

Even though the C and S fund have been going sideways since early last week, this weeks' rally falls within the two week time frame Tom commented about above.

Thanks Tom $ $

P.S. I also paying an attention to your comment today..." If you've made good money this year, my suggestion is not to get too greedy. Do your account a favor and don't give it all back. If the market jumps up to new highs you are going to have a great opportunity to sell near the top. "

 

[Wizard]

Learning, one of the things you will learn is where not to direct your attention here at TSPtalk.

Dave

Yeah, the guy that has been pounding the table about buying precious metals from their first post.

Gold was under $500. Who cares about a gain of over $190 per ounce?

Silver was under $8 an ounce and is $14 now.

Yeap, that would of been a bad investment.

 

[Wizard]

Wisely put!

Really?

 

[Wizard]

You don’t hear any answers because your Crusader cap is pulled down over your ears.

This may be a shocker but the US is broke.

The currency will follow.

It all ways does.

Living on borrowed time and borrowed money is great. But sooner or later the credit card payment comes due. :blink:

 

[Wizard]

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 06 May 2006 at 12:02:27 PM GMT is:

The estimated population of the United States is 298,655,535
so each citizen's share of this debt is $27,982.43.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1.95 billion per day since September 30, 2005!

------------------------------------------

Current account.

Then there is unfunded liabilities (50T) and trade balance (816B). Good thing they were broken down into three pieces.

If you were spending 1.95B more per day then you were taking in - how long would your budget last?

Another 90-120B "emergency funded bill" that does not count (ha ha) towards the current account will be signed soon. Good thing we have printing presses.

But wait, the 1.95B is watered down because you still got to pay unfunded liabilities (social security, medicare, etc, etc) and trade balance.

Weak USD means interest rates go up which means they interest payments to service these debts will go up.

Got gold?

 

[robo]

We got a nice rally going into the FOMC meeting on May 10. It looks like "buy the rumor - sell the fact." Now the question is do we get a sell-off after the meeting? This rally looks to test the 1330's next week, but as we all know Mr. Market does his own thing no matter what the charts say. The charts say the trend is up.

Short Term Liquidity Flows is still high. The amount of Liquidity was enough to have a positive net influence on the market Friday, and the shorts are still bleeding today.

Tom wrote in his blog, "Three days after a large surprise in the jobs report of 50,000 jobs, up or down, the S&P 500 was higher only 5 out of 18 times."

We could be setting up sometime this year for one of the best shorting signals in quite sometime. Look out when Bad News is Good News.

Good Trading / Investing!

If you stayed in the I Fund nice call. The dollar has been very good to you!!!

A quote by Oxenstierna:

"My son, my son, if you knew with what little wisdom the world is ruled."



The TA's I follow:

1 100% long

2 40% to 60% long

1 short the Russell 2000, the QQQQ's and Gold. ( He has had a very bad week)

1 Short the DOW 75%

2 Cash

1 25% long

Birchtree,

Poor Henry!

 

[SkyPilot]

Really?

Yes, really... :nuts:

 

[Wizard]

Yes, really... :nuts:

A sourpuss usually has a distinctive odor, and this may be what he is detecting and confusing for the MB... just a theory.

 

[Wimpy]

Living on borrowed time and borrowed money is great. But sooner or later the credit card payment comes due. :blink:

It's funny that you mention it, but we were getting all those 0% credit card offers back in 2001 and we scooped several of them up and made a play on the gold and silver market with OPM. We quadrupled our money even after paying off the cards. This is not something I recommend, but we felt the opportunity was too great to pass up. What was really a hoot about it was the fact that the FED and treasury was hoping we would go out and spend that 0% money on depreciating assets to keep their phoney economy going. Didn't quite work out the way they planned.

I'm looking for gold to take out $700 next week and possibly $850 over the next 60 days. All the gold bashers think $850 will be the top since that is what it did back in 1980. In 1980 dollars the gold price would have to take out $2000 today to represent an equivalent purchasing power with the funny money we are currently using.

This gold market is really moving and has tremendous momentum. It has caught me somewhat off-guard and I consider myself a goldbug. Anyway, I'm thinking we could easily have a $1500-1600 gold price in the next 18 months. That kind of gold price would be reflective of how far the dollar has to fall to create a little balance in the deficits. BUT this price doesn't reflect the fact that DEMAND for a currency safe haven will most likely drive the gold price much, much higher than $1600. In 1980, the DOW and gold were at a 1 to 1 ratio at 850 each. I'm looking for a 1 to 1 ratio somewhere between 3000-4000 when the dust finally settles. We'll see. Silver is really screaming, but it is significantly more volatile than gold.

How does one take advantage of a falling dollar with their TSP account? The I-Fund is not a bad choice. Also, consider taking out a TSP loan for 10% of your TSP balance and purchase gold. It will insure your account from the devaluation that is taking place as we speak.

 

[SkyPilot]

A sourpuss usually has a distinctive odor, and this may be what he is detecting and confusing for the MB... just a theory.

Yes Greg,

we thought you would notice... Hee hee! So are you saying you think this message board stinks too? Or have you just got confused again as to which MB you are on?

 

[Wizard]

How does one take advantage of a falling dollar with their TSP account? The I-Fund is not a bad choice. Also, consider taking out a TSP loan for 10% of your TSP balance and purchase gold. It will insure your account from the devaluation that is taking place as we speak.

The general loan option is great. I took out one in 2001 and bought precious metals. .

I took another loan out early last year and bought uranium/gold/opal miners in Australia in AUDs.

I only invest in TSP to get the match and to take out the low interest loans that I can use to carry trade with.

Next loan will be to buy U.S. housing after the prices have dropped 60%.

 

[vic]

Wizard, I don't know what job you do for the fed. gov't, but you are obviously
wasting your talents. A person of such vast talents as you posses, should
be doing far greater things. You are working for a gov't that is broke? If I were you I would be looking.

 

[SkyPilot]

Good one Vic!

Hee heee

 

[Birchtree]

Instead of selling in May, one might want to buy

From a TA

Anytime you have 26 of the 30 Dow stocks in one direction, it's technically climactic. Confirmed buy signals on many breadth MCOs.

After such an extended period of phenomenal A/D statistics, the price averages are about to embark on a comparative run to unthinkable price levels. Friday's OEX call-put OI ratio was 1.03, the highest ratio since March 11, 2003. Right at the war lows where the bearish extreme at that time was as high as at any time in the last 70 years.

The Birch says we not only test 11,722.98. but actually blow right on through this mega resistance line and make it support for the rest of the year. Give me my center point of 3 of 3 wave. I'm staying in to win.

 

[Wimpy]

You are working for a gov't that is broke? If I were you I would be looking.

Might not be a bad idea if we ALL started looking. I certainly am!

The book One Point Safe was about the collapse of the U.S.S.R. after it became a little too big for ITS britches. Even though the primary focus of the book involved the wholesale redistribution and auctioning off of stolen Russian nuclear weapons...by Russia's own military personnel (who were no longer getting their paychecks)...to the highest bidders (read Mideast)...the poverty and desperation of former USSR government employees, along with the general populace, was very telling. It is worth a read. The movie titled Peacemaker was based on this book.

 

[nnuut]

Another viewpoint! Double up?

http://foxnews.smartmoney.com/aheadofthecurve/index.cfm?story=20060505

 

[Spaf]

Kingdom Market Yak​

Spaf's stock pick of the week:.....[LOB]...Lobster!...:blink:

Fishermen staying in! Gas cost too much!
Lobster supply down. Demand going up.

Spaf economics! Rgds and be careful!......... ...........Spaf