Market Talk / April 30 - May 6

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Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 2, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks sparkle with good earnings; a higher high.
Other Yak................................Lube nears $75 a bucket.
Jester Yak...............................Gossip of $100 a bucket this winter.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1313.21, up +8.02
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.087, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+3.911, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........77.31, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 58.38 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................74.61, up +0.91
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green with caution.

Tin Box:
Position.....................................0% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1306. Trail: 1294.
 
Snort, snort, I just enjoy the smell of good wholesome bull manure. I assuredly enjoy a bull market that most are running sacred from - just the way it's supposed to happen.

The NYSE Composite placed a new all-time high again today along with the AMEX Composite. The Dow Transports are only two points from their new all-time high again. The NYSE AD line is also probably at new all-time highs. But I am wearing a chastity belt around my neck just in case the BEAR wants my head - otherwise: Cluck, Cluck. It won't be long before you see a Birchy booty shake.
 
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060501/bs_ft/fto050120060719486267
The fund has laid out a series of rules for investing its money offshore, stipulating that any approved managers must have had at least US$5bn under management for the past year, a relatively small amount, and have been operational for six years.

Beijing has asked foreign institutions to apply to manage its holdings overseas, bringing closer formal approval for billions of dollars of pension funds to be invested in foreign stocks and bonds after nearly six years of debate on the issue in China.


The National Social Security Fund, established in 2000 by the central government as a kind of pension fund of last resort, said in a notice on its website that foreign managers could apply for mandates to invest its money by the end of June.

The fund had total assets of US$26.5bn by the end of 2005, with only a small proportion, US$1.57bn, held overseas.
 
Todays kind of market reminds me of Jan 04......the I outran the other funds only to drop 20% or so over the near future......we're reaching that tolerance area.....sometime something has to break......it can't go up forever.....
 
Scenes We'd Like To See

BT, I want to be around when you do the booty shake!

Tech, all your songs are in the same key, the key of D for Doom. But that reminds me, aren't you down in Alabama on the coast? How is the cleanup going? Are you guys ready for this season? Here on the islands we are about 75% prepped, still have some blue tarps around, you know.

Dave
 
I Bond

I decided not to rant but I do find the rate change in the I Bond a bit extreme. Going from a beautiful 6.73% to 2.41% based on............lower inflation between Oct. and March. O.K. the system seems very flawed again. Really knocked the crap out of my yearly. Might as well cash’em and put’em some where else. On-line savings gets me 4.5%.

The decline of the variable part of the interest declined a whooping 75.4%.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/columnist/block/2006-04-24-bonds_x.htm
 
Today is a caution positioning in the European market, rather than a correction.

ECB announces rate decisions on thursday, it is projected that they will NOT hike until the next meeting, so by and by large, that is already factored into the EURUSD. If they do hike, the dollar will swoon against the EUR.

Fed chairmen Big Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak wednesday, today. I suppose whatever he says will rally the dollar after his last rookie move showing just how much of a noobie he is.

Today may be a nice chance to bite off a chunk of stocks, if you swing trade. Also, the Nasdaq is perched rally. Looks like it could be a nice week-end for US funds if Big Ben doesnt hint to heavy on the hikes.
 
Australia just raised rates. More then likely the ECB will too.

Helo Ben will have to be hawish or the USD will dive.

:D
 
When Will the Mainstream Recognize the Silent Dollar Crash?

When measured in the price of gold, the dollar and U.S. financial assets have already crashed. For example, relative to gold, as of Friday's close, since their last relative highs in June-July 2005, the U.S. dollar index has declined 39%, the 10-year Treasury bond 43%, and the S&P 500 31%. These declines have become free-fall in the last month or so.

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=5089&pv=1

Plan B - Maria B - The Money Honey? :blink: :sick:

Note: This in less then a year. Everyone in Brazil was happy as clams also. Stock market at all time high and their currency went to 0. Ouch.

Got gold?
 
Re: Scenes We'd Like To See

Dave M said:
BT, I want to be around when you do the booty shake!

Tech, all your songs are in the same key, the key of D for Doom. But that reminds me, aren't you down in Alabama on the coast? How is the cleanup going? Are you guys ready for this season? Here on the islands we are about 75% prepped, still have some blue tarps around, you know.

Dave
Click to expand...

Yeah "D"....but as time has been going on, I haven't been standing around with my hands in my pockets.....I have newer analysis on the data and yes I have missed this grand opportunity we've had for a while...but that is all in the learning process....the newer analysis and the current economic environment is to lean my way.....you should be alarmed because everyone knows there is an end to this up and up madness.....:D and I see what the market is saying........

Having a stiff obstinateness attitude is not the one to be carrying around when you really need to be cautious with both eyes and ears open....:worried: I'm not going to go around and say "I told you so"....but I am going to remind you of the position we're in......

The thing that bothers me the most is how devalued is the dollar going to get.....its the driving factor in all this, the oil price hikes, I fund increases, Interest rates, the real inflation....what is going to stop the devaluation.....when we all go broke I guess.....

And then what is going to stop the madness....when is the economics going to stop the buying at the top......I'm sure its sooner than you expect.......and the I fund will drop 20% as well at the other funds dropping substantially.......and believe me it will......its smart right now to stay conservative and let someone else lose all their hard earned money.....
 
Looks like another bad day for the bond market.

If Big Ben is mega hawish at noon - watch out. :embarrest:
 
Re: Scenes We'd Like To See

The_Technician said:
The thing that bothers me the most is how devalued is the dollar going to get.....its the driving factor in all this, the oil price hikes, I fund increases, Interest rates, the real inflation....what is going to stop the devaluation.....when we all go broke I guess.....
.....
Click to expand...
Though I still haven't "left the casino", I'm still in the market, I do have the same question as The Technician, what is going on with this devaluing of the dollar? What exactly is jeopardized by the US Dollar falling so hard? Seems like a bottomless pit. When has this happened before? (at this rate?)
 
Re: Scenes We'd Like To See

ayla said:
What exactly is jeopardized by the US Dollar falling so hard?
Click to expand...

Inflation the fed can not control caused by foreign central banks bulking at buying new debt. To entice buyers interest rates will climb. This will crush the housing market and slow to stop retail sales.

On the bright side, maybe China/India will outsource jobs back to us because our labor will be cheap. :blink:

Interest since the USD is falling, crude is cheaper on a relative bases for other countries. I just left Thailand and their gas prices were falling because their currency was going up.
 
Birchtree said:
Snort, snort, I just enjoy the smell of good wholesome bull manure. I assuredly enjoy a bull market that most are running sacred from - just the way it's supposed to happen.
Click to expand...

Guru, maybe you should listen to others for a change. ;)

You can't buy the dip if you are the dip. :sick:
 
Another Cramer pick of the week, KRY, getting creamed. Down 12%.

I love that guy. :) :worried: :D
 
Wizard said:
Guru, maybe you should listen to others for a change. ;)

You can't buy the dip if you are the dip. :sick:
Click to expand...
Do we really have to start with the BS again? Give us your opinion of the market and leave it at that. IF you want to attack others, do it in your own thread so we don't have to look.

Thanks!
 
mlk_man said:
Do we really have to start with the BS again? Give us your opinion of the market and leave it at that.
Click to expand...

Opps, I meant to say:

You can't buy the dip if you ride the dip. Typo. :D

Snort, snort. My rep being green has my fingers shaky.

Got gold?
 
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