JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Good morning

I have a multitiude of limit orders just waiting to get filled.

Picked up GE at 26.96

Another limit order filled, this time with TNA @ 73.91 (I have two more limit orders under both GE and TNA.)

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[JTH]

In the short-term, we've pulled back enough to justify a brief bounce estimated to reach 1830 before pulling back to 1808. Or we could continue the pullback to 1808, getting a retracement bounce to 1826 before ultimately declining to 1780. Like it, love it or loathe it, that's how I'm calling it...

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A break below 1810 should trigger a PNF reversal.

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[Bquat]

Hay I like your channel. I pick continue on down 1809ish. You don't think the market wants to touch the 50 day?

 

[EricDeLee]

A co-worker just showed me options and limit orders yesterday. I still don't fully understand them, but it seems pretty interesting. What is it called when you don't own a stock, yet bet that it won't fall to a certain price, yet if it does you buy a set amount of shares. And if it doesn't, you pick up the "bet" and don't need to buy the shares.

Btw... Love your charts. I mentioned that on my thread... But didn't know if you saw it. Great charts though.

 

[rktect1]

I dont like it

 

[JTH]

Hay I like your channel. I pick continue on down 1809ish. You don't think the market wants to touch the 50 day?

Thanks! If 1808 gets breached than it's likely we'll hit the 50SMA on the way down to 1780, bearing in mind we do have a rising 50SMA currently at 1801, projected to reach 1808 on 22 Jan. Some folks may wonder why I have 1808 as the price target listed in my signature block? It's a 50% retracement from the 18 Dec low to the 31 Dec high (see yellow circles.) Of course anything is possible, I have more of a chance of being wrong than right. If I'm proven wrong, I'll be more than willing to adjust my strategy (as needed.)

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[JTH]

I dont like it

Me neither, but I'd also like to pay less for stocks, they are a bit too pricy IMHO.

A co-worker just showed me options and limit orders yesterday. I still don't fully understand them, but it seems pretty interesting. What is it called when you don't own a stock, yet bet that it won't fall to a certain price, yet if it does you buy a set amount of shares. And if it doesn't, you pick up the "bet" and don't need to buy the shares.

Btw... Love your charts. I mentioned that on my thread... But didn't know if you saw it. Great charts though.

Thank you! I understand the basics of options, but I don't play them since I don't have an options account. There are other options available for those of us, such as shorting the markets using a leveraged 3X inverse ETF such as SPXL, TZA, ect. You have to watch these leveraged ETFs like a hawk, they can go south on you quicky and utterly destroy your account. My worst trade was in 2009 off the bear bottom, with inverse financial 3X ETF FAZ...it still stings just thinking about it.

 

[JTH]

From 6 Jan 13

Yea, I wanted to jump in today (that was my plan over the weekend) but the things I wanted to happen, haven't and I still think they will, I was looking at a 14 Jan turndate, but I still need to validate this is the correct date.

We didn't reach the 1808 price objective just yet, but we could tag it this week.

 

[JTH]

Limit Order Executed - ALU @ 4.41

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[JTH]

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[JTH]

Along with the gap up this morning, we're hitting resistance on this 15 minute chart with an orange 50 SMA & red 200 SMA (illustrated with .02 bolinger bands.)

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[Birchtree]

"Come on through to the other side" - The Doors

 

[jkenjohnson]

"Come on through to the other side" - The Doors

It's "break on through to the other side", but not important.

 

[Bquat]

When you visit again: Looking longer term could this be an inverse head and shoulder if we get back to the top of the yellow channel? Or is it too sloppy? I'm thinking of adding to my exposure if we get above the white channel.

 

[JTH]

When you visit again: Looking longer term could this be an inverse head and shoulder if we get back to the top of the yellow channel? Or is it too sloppy? I'm thinking of adding to my exposure if we get above the white channel.

For a Head & Shoulders pattern, I tend to go with the old school of thought, meaning the Right & Left shoulders should be greater than or equal to 50% of the head. The two shoulders should also be relatively equal in distance to the head, not exceeding the time-length of the head. I base this information on Bulkowski

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It doesn't mean it is always right and the rules can't be bent. My first answer was no, it does not meet the criteria, based on the fact the most recent last shoulder did not give us a 50% retracement to 1808 and the length on the oldest shoulder exceeds the time-length of the head. Having said that, In the Money Stocks likes to use the phrase "In the spirit of" when he is referring to patterns that perform, yet do not meet the exact rules. This is where art meets science and where we have to decide if it is a risk worth taking. Under these particular circumstance I would look for a stronger setup or a break of the neckline at 1880 which I would consider a move too risky for my personal tolerance.

I hope this helps, thank you for asking, it gives us the opportunity to bring some of the newer folks into the fold

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[JTH]

Of the S&P 500's Top-10 weighted stocks, 7 are trading below their 20 SMA and 5 are trading below their 50 SMA.

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[JTH]

http://thepatternsite.com/diamondt.html

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An update to the FEDEx chart posted on 8 Jan, we can see we've hit resistance multiple times.

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[law87]

In the short-term, we've pulled back enough to justify a brief bounce estimated to reach 1830 before pulling back to 1808. Or we could continue the pullback to 1808, getting a retracement bounce to 1826 before ultimately declining to 1780. Like it, love it or loathe it, that's how I'm calling it...

View attachment 26670

A break below 1810 should trigger a PNF reversal.

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eh...is this still a game plan? we are a little above 1830

 

[JTH]

eh...is this still a game plan? we are a little above 1830

If it's a game, I've lost Tuesday's battle, you are correct, I didn't estimate the strength in the bounce exceeding a close above 1830. I still have a downside bias, with a lower low & lower high, I'll keep that 1808 target until the markets have repaired the damage.

Hourly Chart
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[JTH]

From 9 Jan

Good morning

Thus far the markets have been sideways, we've already traded 6 days without a new high, while the previous 2 minor pullbacks took 8 days to carve out new highs. IMHO we'll start to move soon, definitely by Monday. I still have an 1808 price target, that won't change unless we make a higher high, if we were to make a higher high, then I may use a Fibonancci projection of 1905 as the next price target (dependent on current levels not changing.)

From 14 Jan

If it's a game, I've lost Tuesday's battle, you are correct, I didn't estimate the strength in the bounce exceeding a close above 1830. I still have a downside bias, with a lower low & lower high, I'll keep that 1808 target until the markets have repaired the damage.

I called it wrong; Today I went from losing the battle to losing the war on the wave and will mostly likely have a poor performing month. I really did expect a deeper pullback than what we got, this has me somewhat concerned we are primed for a mini flash crash. For me, the trade is gone, it is too late to chase at these levels. When you factor in the Trader's Almanac's seasonal weakness for next week, along with the weakness from my 20-year daily stats, it makes it worth waiting for a better opportunity. Best of luck to those riding the wave...

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