JTH's Account Talk

JTH

Well-known member
It's about time I started my own account talk so I can stop polluting other's threads with my tripe. My goals for the rest of the year are simple. Stay ahead of the S&P 500, try not to invest more then 50% and try to keep one IFT in my arsenal so I can buy more if this market has a serious crash. I don't plan on staying invested much for the remainder of the year. I just want to snipe my gains and get out.

AGG1Aug2008.png

F Fund - Looking at the weekly charts AGG hasn't had more then two
positive weeks in a row YTD and we just had 2 positive weeks.... If it gets back down below 99.25 I may buy in 25% for a short 10 cent profit.

SPX1Aug.png

C Fund - On the weekly it's been trading sideways the last two weeks. I'd like to enter in below 1220 but only if the market conditions are right. I still firmly believe we need to see more pain and get into the 1100s.

EMW.png

S Fund - On the weekly this chart looks the strongest. Perhaps we can ride this up to 595 before we hit major Resistance.

efa.png

I fund - I wish the I fund would do better, I've had terrible luck this year timing it. I'll be curious to see how next week fills in this chart.

I'm waiting to see how this monday plays out before I decide on my next IFT. Idealy I'd like to see some more downside before catching the next wave up. It would be nice to re-test July 15's bottom and see if it holds.
 
JTH, excellent 1st post! :)

I think we are about to rally. We would need a pretty big catalyst to retest and/or break 1200 again, IMO.
 
I had to look up the word tripe (just kidding), I've always found your
comments and thoughts truly helpful. But to see your first post looking
as cool :cool: as it does, you can count on me to stop back quite often.
Who knows, maybe I'll throw a little tripe on the frying pan too ! ;)
 
JTH.

Your charts look pretty good. The black background sort of sets them apart.

Please use an acknowledgement when you use other material, text, charts, etc.

Example:
Charts courtesy of [xxURL="http://www.stockcharts.com/"]www.StockCharts.com[/url]

Remove the two "xx" and you will get:

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com


Need any help, give me a PM!

Rgds Spaf
 
JTH, excellent 1st post! :)

I think we are about to rally. We would need a pretty big catalyst to retest and/or break 1200 again, IMO.

Thanks Corepuncher and I agree. With all the bad news we recieved latley it would be hard to get back down to the 1200s. But we seem to be trading sideways the last two weeks and haven't really fixed any of the problems that got us down here in the first place. I don't mind jumping in within this trading range, I'd just hate to get caught on the downside if it decides to go South.

Who knows, maybe I'll throw a little tripe on the frying pan too ! ;)

Thanks Squalebear and I think you owe me more tripe then anyone else here so free free to stop by anytime. :)

Please use an acknowledgement when you use other material, text, charts, etc.

Thanks Spaf I'll be sure to edit the links as you requested, I would have done it now, but apparently the edit post feature has timed out. By the way I always enjoy your weekly market talk and you've pointed out some things that people should be caustiously aware of. This trading range, PSAR, STO, and MACD could serve as a warning.

For me, all these warnings tell me I'd like to re-test July's lows before getting back in. It doesn't mean I'll get the opprotunity but it does mean I'll be cautious and quick with my IFTs this month.
 
I believe the July 15th low was a result of naked short selling by greedy bears - the law is watching now so I would not look for a retest.
 
I believe the July 15th low was a result of naked short selling by greedy bears - the law is watching now so I would not look for a retest.

You bring up a valid point Birchtree, especially with the recent short restrictions placed on the financials. One thing I admire about you is your ability to see the big down days as buying opportunities and to not get caught up in the selling panic.

I'd still like to see a re-test of July's short term bottom so I can catch more shares and scale back into G on the way up. If I don't see the lows then it's no big deal and I'll catch the wave as best I can.

If it's one thing this market has proven to me, it's that it has been lacking in stability and predictability... :toung:
 
It looks like I’m a day late and a dollar short. I see no reason for me to jump in today. If I did, then I’d probably get whacked the next day.

On the S&P if we can pierce and stay above 1275 then that would impress me enough to follow in. For now this market has to prove to me that it’s worthy of my money.

I wish the F –Fund would have dived more today, if it had I might have bitten off a little piece.

I still think S is the way to go, I’m hoping it will drop down more.

Hope everyone has a good day :D
 
S&P 500's recent 3 peaks

Jul 23 1282.1899
Jul 30 1284.26
Aug 5 1284.88

I don't know about you but I wouldn't exactly say these three peaks qualify as higher highs. Still looks to me like we are trading sideways. :rolleyes:
 
I always enjoy Tom's daily market brief and often give it more weight then others, but tonight I think his analysis has been the best of the many sources I draw from.

Great work Tom!
 
Good morning everyone. :D

Well it seems like today is one of those days where I can't find a good reason to make a move. I still have my 2 IFTs.

I'd like to see more downside in F, perhaps getting closer to the bottom bollinger band.

For the up side, I'd like to see 1277 hold for the C fund. But I sure don't see any good reason to chase the dumb money. (JMHO) For the downside I'd like 1225. Funny thing is it looks like this market will forget about the financials as long as oil continues to weaken.

I still like the S ($EMW) fund the most. I'm not sure it has the momentum to push through the overhead resistance of 583. If it gets back down to 570, then I'll re-evaluate.

Has anyone noticed the S looks like it's forming a wedging pattern?
 
JTH, yes all the funds are forming a wedge, however, the C fund is showing a upward trend to the bottom of its wedge. They seem to be reacting from a confluence of many strong influences acting upon them. All the stock equities sit at the bottom (as we all know) of some recent significant losses, including dollar devaluation. However, judging from the most recent corrections in oil, credit (real estate) and its damage done, we may now be witnessing the fizzing sound of oil and commodities' money moving out of those investments (save for Iran BS). The only game in town, commodites, is waining. And lastly, with at least some understanding of the real estate recent and impending losses not a mystery, tomorrow, perhaps the next game is stock equities.

Note, the above is impression, speculation and gut feelings and things still are day by day.
 
Considering the recent flood of bad news, I think the markets are holding up rather well.

Doesn't look like I'll find an entry point today. I was hoping for a flat to higher day in the markets, and wanting that to drive down the F fund.
If I could just get F at < 12.00 a share (perferable 11.96) I'd be a happy camper and wait for a dip day to buy my some C.

All of this reminds me of Star Wars

Gold Two: [the Y-wings are running the gauntlet toward the Death Star reactor-port] The (Financials) guns - they've stopped!
Gold Five: [realizes why] Stabilize your rear deflectors... Watch for enemy (Oil) fighters.
Gold Leader: (The Dumb Money) They're coming in! Three marks at 2-10!
[Gold Two is slain by (Ben Bernanke) Darth Vader and his wingmen; Gold Leader starts to panic]
Gold Leader: It's no good, I can't maneuver! (No IFTs)
Gold Five: Stay on target. (Buy high sell low)
Gold Leader: *We're too close!* (suckers rally)
Gold Five: Stay on target! (Jim Carmer says the bottom is in)
Gold Leader: [shouts] Loosen up! (Drill Drill Drill, King Dollar)
[he too is picked off by (Ben) Vader and (Congress) Company; Gold Five tries to escape but is fatally winged]
Gold Five: Gold Five to Red leader, (lost the finiancials, oil, jobs, dollar, and the economy) Tiree, lost Dutch.
Red Leader: I copy, Gold Leader. (tell me something I don't know)
Gold Five: It came from... behind! (Back door man)
[crashes]
 
I hope everyone has a great day in the markets, as for myself I'll be staying in G over the weekend. :cool:

After the initial rally this week, it's been too difficult to find an entry point that meets my expectations. Fridays do play a factor in my decisions, if you're already in G you minus will stay there ever the weekend.

Good luck everyone, may the bulls be at your back and your foot be up the bear's azz... :cheesy:
 
AM I following the dumb money today with 20% CSI each?

Dumb luck for me, I'm in a class all week and won't have access to the internet during the day. So I took the plunge and nibblled a little.

I'll re-evaluate tonight... Best of luck everyone :)
 
The IFT I made Monday morning has not shown up in my account. I'm still showing 100G as of the close of 11 Aug.

Does this mean my IFT never went through? This will screw up my tracker :mad:
 
did you do a screenie and request an email confirmation? Always request confirmation.

Actually most of the time I do, but I was in a rush to get to class so I skipped it. Now I'd be really pissed if today had been a huge up day! Lessoned learned... :notrust:
 
I jumped back in today 20% each in CSI. This is my first IFT this month.
Looks like today may be a better day to jump in then last Monday.

Lucky my first IFT didn't go through.

Unlucky my tracker is now off...

Good luck everyone :D
 
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