JTH's Account Talk

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OBXTrader said:
Today would be the peak according to your chart. Interesting to see how it will compare to the only exact match, 1997. The S&P was "technically" down on Friday so chart is valid.

Well timed exit by the way.
Click to expand...

Yea, I wanted to jump in today (that was my plan over the weekend) but the things I wanted to happen, haven't and I still think they will, I was looking at a 14 Jan turndate, but I still need to validate this is the correct date.
 
My thoughts too. Unless my math is off, that lines up with 1997 on the calendar. What do I know? My 10% 2013 TSP return will attest, but feels like catching a slow motion falling knife market right now.

JTH said:
Yea, I wanted to jump in today (that was my plan over the weekend) but the things I wanted to happen, haven't and I still think they will, I was looking at a 14 Jan turndate, but I still need to validate this is the correct date.
Click to expand...
 
Over the past 64 years, for the month of January, the S&P 500 has closed negative on days 1, 2, & 3 consecutively 15 times.

42 times on Day 1, followed by 23 times on day 2, followed by 15 times on day 3.

On day 4 we have 8 negative closes, with an average gain of .33% over the entire 15 days. Day 4's statistics are somewhat screwed because in 1987 the markets gained 7.26%

If we omit this 7.26% data, then the 14-day average gain/loss is -.16%

View attachment 26596
 
While today's price action does look promising, I'm not going for it, I call B.S. (Bear Trap.)
 
The markets look stronger than my initial impression I'll have to see how they pan out by the end of the day.
 
Stocks that get the best of you..

This is ENPH, an energy stock that did very well most of last year (until I played it.) I've been bested by it 3 of 4 times and was so discusted with it I chose not to take a trade when I got a buy signal on on Dec 12 (the day it bottomed.) FYI-I as of Tuesday I have a sell signal on it.


View attachment 26607
 
Good morning

Thus far the markets have been sideways, we've already traded 6 days without a new high, while the previous 2 minor pullbacks took 8 days to carve out new highs. IMHO we'll start to move soon, definitely by Monday. I still have an 1808 price target, that won't change unless we make a higher high, if we were to make a higher high, then I may use a Fibonancci projection of 1905 as the next price target (dependent on current levels not changing.)

View attachment 26619
 
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