JTH's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Spending time reviewing your trades, analyzing your successes, and especially your failures, is how you become a better trader. The end of year analysis is an excellent time to do such a review. Good job, sir.
 
Jason, by "linear", do you mean "best fit line"? I'm confused, because the last 30 days seem awfully strong for the C Fund. Shouldn't the slope be up? I'm also confused that the daily percent gain/loss time is different than the last # of days shown. Then again, maybe it's just me, since I'm pretty dense upstairs. :confused:
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Jason, by "linear", do you mean "best fit line" Yes ? I'm confused, because the last 30 days seem awfully strong for the C Fund. Shouldn't the slope be up? I'm also confused that the daily percent gain/loss time is different than the last # of days shown. Then again, maybe it's just me, since I'm pretty dense upstairs. :confused:
Click to expand...

For the 1st chart, take the 5-day movement in price (close to close) and convert this into a percentage gain/loss. Do that every day for the last 30 days, this gives you the data the linear line is based on. In the case of the 20-day chart with the declining linear line, it does not mean we aren't making money, it just means we are making less money, hence momentum is waning. On that chart we can see the C-Fund started off low (read from left to right) but the overall line is still above 0%

I wanted to capture more than 30 days of data, but given the picture size limitations, it would be difficult to interpret the data. I hope this answers your question, I was hoping these charts would be easier to read, I have a feeling I did not succeed in that endeavor. :(
 
Maybe I should have looked here first before I charted. Well you're showing how far it can drop and I'm playing with the odds.:cool:
 
Bquat said:
Maybe I should have looked here first before I charted. Well you're showing how far it can drop and I'm playing with the odds.:cool:
Click to expand...

IMHO one of the better ways to measure risk (within the confines of TSP) is to measure price in relation to the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, then convert it into a percentage. At current prices, we can gain 1.56% if we reach the top band, or lose -3.68% if we drop down to the lower band. That's 1 to 2 odds, not the kind of setup I'm willing to risk (under current circumstances.)

View attachment 26586
 
JTH,

On FreeStockCharts.com, do you know if there is an option to show Exponential Moving Averages vice the Simple Moving Averages?
 
JTH said:
IMHO one of the better ways to measure risk (within the confines of TSP) is to measure price in relation to the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, then convert it into a percentage. At current prices, we can gain 1.56% if we reach the top band, or lose -3.68% if we drop down to the lower band. That's 1 to 2 odds, not the kind of setup I'm willing to risk (under current circumstances.)

View attachment 26586
Click to expand...
Thinks. I was being kind of a fibber (Fibonacci) myself and do a reward to risk of each level holding and bouncing or breaking and acting as resistance when tested from below.:D Its not a proven science but I'm trying to show what I may be willing to risk at 25% increments. I'm trying to stay a little more in instead of dropping out 100% on an exit strategy and 100% in on an entry strategy.A flow in and flow out sort of thing.:rolleyes:
 
Good morning

I cannot lie, I'm so hungry for some market action, I need a fix. After weeks of lack-luster action I'd love to see the markets pick a direction...any direction
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
Is the market ready to explode, or has it come too far, too fast?
Replies
0
Views
249
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Bond yields putting the pressure on stocks -- holiday reversal?
Replies
0
Views
251
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Something big was brewing, all right
Replies
1
Views
424
robo
robo
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The chasers are making money -- so far
Replies
0
Views
234
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Talk of a trade deal with China has stocks looking up
Replies
2
Views
500
nasa1974
nasa1974
Back
Top