JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Hey JT,

Question...when you say execution...you mean you're jumping in?

Also, some "middle finger" formations I've seen lead to a topping-like pattern...then a sharp drop. What do you think?

The only thing that could be worse than a Middle Finger Formation is when it's followed by a Sit-N-Spin, those are painful. While I could entertain an IFT this week, at the moment I'm leaning into the bear-camp and it looks cozy in there (noting that I'm 54% invested within the IRA.) By Execution I meant to say I would expect the ascending triangle (with an internal diamond) to breakout/down very soon

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[Bquat]

Thanks JTH for making me feel better for my exit.:cheesy:

 

[JTH]

Large Caps lag while the rest of major indexes have pulled ahead...

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[RealMoneyIssues]

Large Caps lag while the rest of major indexes have pulled ahead...

That's because I chose to stay in C, vice S...

 

[JTH]

That's because I chose to stay in C, vice S...

No, that's because I bought GE

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

No, that's because I bought GE

Good one... well, not a good buy, but a good come-back

 

[jkenjohnson]

You still hoding ALU?

 

[JTH]

You still hoding ALU?

Yes, I have the stop placed @ 3.90

Just executed the last of 3 postions in GE @ 25.55

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[jkenjohnson]

Yes, I have the stop placed @ 3.90

Just executed the last of 3 postions in GE @ 25.55

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I have some ALU and was wondering how long I should hang on. I think I bought in around $4.20/share.

 

[JTH]

I have some ALU and was wondering how long I should hang on. I think I bought in around $4.20/share.

Well, I'm pretty sure the cost basis on my 3 postions is higher than yours so you are more likely better off than me. I didn't buy ALU based on a chart pattern, I bought it based off a taylored overbought indicator I developed which is right about 70% of the time, as fate would have it, it wasn't right this time. With a $3.90 stop, I'll lose 10% (this stock has pulled back 13.5% off the Jan 8th top.) From my view it's already taken a substancial hit, the 100 SMA sits at 3.84 it hasn't hit that line since June. Either ways I'm riding it out to 3.90, not because of a technical level, because that's where my stop loss accepable level of risk is.

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[jkenjohnson]

Well, I'm pretty sure the cost basis on my 3 postions is higher than yours so you are more likely better off than me. I didn't buy ALU based on a chart pattern, I bought it based off a taylored overbought indicator I developed which is right about 70% of the time, as fate would have it, it wasn't right this time. With a $3.90 stop, I'll lose 10% (this stock has pulled back 13.5% off the Jan 8th top.) From my view it's already taken a substancial hit, the 100 SMA sits at 3.84 it hasn't hit that line since June. Either ways I'm riding it out to 3.90, not because of a technical level, because that's where my stop loss accepable level of risk is.

View attachment 26806

I read somewhere that earnings are coming out soon and should a significant increase.

 

[JTH]

Looks like a classic Middle Finger Formation, based on this data I'd expect an execution on or about 22 Jan. Estimated Upside PO 1870-1885, downside 1800-1820

Within the context of both time & price, this pattern has executed within expectations, meeting the minimum 1820 downside price objective.

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[JTH]

For those who are curious, I still have an 1808 price target, I'm expanding it from 1796-1808

 

[JTH]

Daily chart showing the Bollinger Band width (distance between the Upper & Lower bands) is at a yearly low. In general, when the bollinger band is compressed, prices become tightly wound like a Jack-In-The-Box, increasing the likelihood of volatility, meaning price range may expand rapidly. Expect a big move...

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[rspring]

JT,thanks for the update. If we should break the 1796 downside target what would be the neaxt target area. Thanks

 

[JTH]

JT,thanks for the update. If we should break the 1796 downside target what would be the neaxt target area. Thanks

Based off the weekly charts (using price by volume as a reference) a 5% haircut would take us to 1760 (a more than plausible scenario) while a 10% haircut would take us to 1660. At this time, I can't entertain these levels until we close below 1808 (a 50% retracement from the previous wave.)

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[rspring]

Great chart. Thanks for your imput. I'm not looking for more than a 3-5 % correction until later in the year but I would like to make some fast money. It's been tough to time the market within the last year. I am looking for volitility because it creates good opportunity for the market timers. Please keep us posted on any changes that you see.

 

[law87]

JTH,

are you trading strictly base off of the Fib level or do you use other charting tools?

 

[JTH]

JTH,

are you trading strictly base off of the Fib level or do you use other charting tools?

For the most part, I'll use Fib levels to define the strength of pullbacks/bounces, bollinger bands to define the probable trading range/valuation and volume to determine the conviction. Add to this the use of historical statistics to determine what "should happen" and a few secret sauce indicators to finish it off. I also track 80 Indexes/Stock/ETFs daily because this helps give me a feel for what is happening abroad.

 

[law87]

For the most part, I'll use Fib levels to define the strength of pullbacks/bounces, bollinger bands to define the probable trading range/valuation and volume to determine the conviction. Add to this the use of historical statistics to determine what "should happen" and a few secret sauce indicators to finish it off. I also track 80 Indexes/Stock/ETFs daily because this helps give me a feel for what is happening abroad.

what to look for in volume? I'm looking at stockcharts (1 year on the SPX) right now, I dont see anything in volume other than "higher than usual" activity