JTH's Account Talk

[99percent]

Good morning

Last 8 of 10 Mondays have been down.
Last 15 of 20 1st market day of April have been up.
Last 11 of 20 Week 14s have been up
Last 14 of 20 Month 4s have been up

If today finishes down would it be a good time to buy conservatively COB today, at least for the short term? Leave some in G to buy more later? Currently 100% G
Would be nice to buy low today and hope for a decent April.

 

[JTH]

If today finishes down would it be a good time to buy conservatively COB today, at least for the short term? Leave some in G to buy more later? Currently 100% G
Would be nice to buy low today and hope for a decent April.

Sry for the delay, I took an exit today because I believe there are lower prices to be had.

IFT 100G EoB today

 

[99percent]

Yeah, I saw your IFT. Went 25-S anyway just to keep a toe in the pool. Hope this is just a pullback and not a correction.

 

[JTH]

Good evening

This was not a good trade for me, 12 days invested for a .36% gain, had I been trading the Wilshire 4500 it would have been a nominal loss. Still, a win is a win and I should be grateful it wasn't worse.

View attachment 23153

 

[JTH]

Good Morning

Last 6 of 10 days have closed down, last 7 of 20 have closed down.

Last 3 of 10 Tuesdays following the last 10 down Mondays, closed down.

Last 1 of 12 Tuesdays finished with both the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] & 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] 4-hour candlestick down (hence the name Turn-around Tuesday.)

Last 8 of 10 Tuesdays have closed up.

Last 12 of 16 both Monday & Tuesday down led to lower intraday prices later in the week.

For the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] market day of April, last 13 of 20 have closed up.

Weekly price is 9.6% above the weekly 52 SMA. The previous peak was last week at 10.33%, this is within the top 25% over the last 20 years. In 2012 the highest percentage was 10.79% marking the September top.

 

[99percent]

Does the S Fund follow the Dow or the W4500? Thanks.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Does the S Fund follow the Dow or the W4500? Thanks.

W4500... basically, but according to TSP, it follows the Dow Jones US Completion Total Stock Market Index

 

[99percent]

Went 25% S COB yesterday. Shoulda gone with C I guess. If it stays down I guess I could buy more but would like to buy C but too high right now.

 

[JTH]

Went 25% S COB yesterday. Shoulda gone with C I guess. If it stays down I guess I could buy more but would like to buy C but too high right now.

You did what you thought was right given the circumstances presented, I'm glad you chose a smaller allocation, at these levels folks will be ready to take off risk rather quickly. The S&P 500 appears to be blazing its own trail but the same can not be said for the Wilshire 4500 & Transports.

 

[JTH]

View attachment 23165

 

[Sensei]

If the H&S scenario plays out, do you expect support at the lower BB, or do you think price might go down to the 50 day SMA
(I think low 790s)?

 

[JTH]

If the H&S scenario plays out, do you expect support at the lower BB, or do you think price might go down to the 50 day SMA
(I think low 790s)?

That's difficult for me to ascertain at the moment, just not enough data to push me into making a decision. Yes I do think that would be a decent place for support, but it would only be a -2.75% pullback, I'd be more tempted with a 3-6% cut. Right now, prices are compressing and the BB is revealing this, your 790s would be an appealing price level for me to jump in on, but that would be dependent on how the other indexes are fairing. I'm surprised nobody is talking about the Transports?

 

[JTH]

Some folks may think I'm crazy for exiting the markets, that's ok, that's what makes a market.

In 2012 the transports peaked on march 19, while the S&P 500 peaked 10 days later on April 2nd. This year, the Transports peaked on march 19th, it's now 10 days later and the S&P 500 has created a new peak... If this goes into the crapper, don't say I didn't warn you...

View attachment 23166
View attachment 23167

 

[tsptalk]

Nice observation. 2013 has been nearly a carbon copy of 2012.

 

[JTH]

Some folks may think I'm crazy for exiting the markets, that's ok, that's what makes a market.

In 2012 the transports peaked on march 19, while the S&P 500 peaked 10 days later on April 2nd. This year, the Transports peaked on march 19th, it's now 10 days later and the S&P 500 has created a new peak... If this goes into the crapper, don't say I didn't warn you...

View attachment 23166
View attachment 23167

Good Morning

Last 5 of 10 days have closed up, last 12 of 20 have closed up.

Last 2 of 13 Wednesdays finished with both the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] & 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] 4-hour candlestick down

Last 7 of 10 Wednesdays have closed up.

Last 6 Monday down & Tuesday up combos led to 4 Wednesdays up

For the 3rd market day of April, last 12 of 20 have closed up.

March Monthly price was 9.5% above the Monthly 12 SMA, going back 20 years this is in the top 27%.
The previous peak was April 2011 at 14.14% this is within the top 8% over the last 20 years. In 2012 the highest percentage was 8.93% marking the March top.

 

[nasa1974]

Nice observation. 2013 has been nearly a carbon copy of 2012.

Let's hope that does not happen. But the S fund has been ugly so far.

 

[JTH]

View attachment 23180

 

[Birchtree]

I bet we're looking at a potential head fake to the downside - and then a quick snap back. Throw some hot metal at North Korea and he'll shut up.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I bet we're looking at a potential head fake to the downside - and then a quick snap back. Throw some hot metal at North Korea and he'll shut up.

This head fake and snap back... You talking about Kim jun un? Just kidding.

 

[amoeba]

That's difficult for me to ascertain at the moment, just not enough data to push me into making a decision. Yes I do think that would be a decent place for support, but it would only be a -2.75% pullback, I'd be more tempted with a 3-6% cut. Right now, prices are compressing and the BB is revealing this, your 790s would be an appealing price level for me to jump in on, but that would be dependent on how the other indexes are fairing. I'm surprised nobody is talking about the Transports?

....do you mean buy back in ~770 or so if other indices are fairing better than the S-fund?