JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

....do you mean buy back in ~770 or so if other indices are fairing better than the S-fund?

Nope, I was referring to Sensei's 790s

 

[JTH]

Good evening

Just to set the record straight, I almost never exit on a strong down day because it pisses me off to lose money. But this was a special case and in this situation money was made on the overall trade and it ended up being the right choice. Now back in the #8 slot, the same slot surrendered on 1 March, but it's a long race to the finish line, so I'll try to stay humble in the meantime. I'll post some interesting stats pertaining to this particular scenario in the morning.

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[JTH]

Good morning

The stats infer Thursday has a positive bias

On Wednesday the S&P 500 closed down -1.05% Over the past 5035 trading sessions (20 years) there have been 159 previous occasions that closed down between -.95% to 1.15%

Of those 159 occasions the next day’s average return was -.13%

Of those 159 occasions there were 78 instances down for an average return of -1.25% this infers there’s a 49% chance the next day we close down

Of those 159 occasions there were 81 instances up for an average return of .95% This infers there’s a 51% chance the next day we close up

Of those 159 occasions there were 33 instances where the next day’s returns were -.95% or greater for an average return of -2.31% This infers there’s a 21% chance the next day we close down > -.95%

Of those 159 occasions there were 29 instances that fell on a Wednesday for an average return of .32%

Of those 29 occasions there were 13 instances of a down Thursday for an average return of -1.54% this infers there’s a 45% chance this Thursday we close down

Of those 29 occasions there were 16 instances up Thursday for an average return of .68% this infers there’s a 55% chance this Thursday we close up

Of the last 10 occasions where both Wednesday & Thursday closed down, 8 Fridays closed up

 

[FAB1]

just curious did you have a particular reason for avoiding the F fund Jth?

we could be going up the tracker and making gains

yea I went G also.

 

[JTH]

just curious did you have a particular reason for avoiding the F fund Jth?

we could be going up the tracker and making gains

yea I went G also.

It's an excellent observation, in years past I've been a proponent of using the F-fund, but last year I stopped using it. Reason being, if I'm in cash, it allows me to focus on the S-fund specifically. If I'm in the F-fund and it's not doing well, it tends to push me into stocks, but if I'm in cash I don't get swayed because of the F-funds performance. I hope that makes sense?

 

[rspring]

JTH, your performance has been great this year and I wish I had been following your moves. Do you think we are going to make new highs before May? 1580 on the S & P ?

 

[ebbnflow]

F-fund also up with the other funds (have mercy)? :blink:

 

[JTH]

JTH, your performance has been great this year and I wish I had been following your moves. Do you think we are going to make new highs before May? 1580 on the S & P ?

I fare better reacting to the markets verses projecting them, based on my assessment of statistics (more art than science) I think there is a 60% chance we will peak in April (or have peaked) followed by a 40% chance we peak in May. After that, we'll look for a summer rally and end of year rally. If April closes down, then I think there's a 60% chance May will also close down. If April closes up, then I think we peak in May with a potential shot at 1640-1670

Statistically speaking the 2nd week of April does not look good, but if we can get through it without too much damage, we could pull off a nice end of month rally, but be warned, May has not been kind the last 3 years with an average -5.27% return.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

The stats infer Thursday has a positive bias

On Wednesday the S&P 500 closed down -1.05% Over the past 5035 trading sessions (20 years) there have been 159 previous occasions that closed down between -.95% to 1.15%

Of those 159 occasions the next day’s average return was -.13%

Of those 159 occasions there were 78 instances down for an average return of -1.25% this infers there’s a 49% chance the next day we close down

Of those 159 occasions there were 81 instances up for an average return of .95% This infers there’s a 51% chance the next day we close up

Of those 159 occasions there were 33 instances where the next day’s returns were -.95% or greater for an average return of -2.31% This infers there’s a 21% chance the next day we close down > -.95%

Of those 159 occasions there were 29 instances that fell on a Wednesday for an average return of .32%

Of those 29 occasions there were 13 instances of a down Thursday for an average return of -1.54% this infers there’s a 45% chance this Thursday we close down

Of those 29 occasions there were 16 instances up Thursday for an average return of .68% this infers there’s a 55% chance this Thursday we close up

Of the last 10 occasions where both Wednesday & Thursday closed down, 8 Fridays closed up

Of those 159 occasions there were 7 instances where the markets closed up on the next day between .15% and .35% for a -.52% average return

Of those 7 occasions there were 2 instances up for a .82% average return

Of those 7 occasions there were 5 instances down for a -1.06% average return

Of those 7 occasions 3 fell on a Wednesday & Thursday for a Friday average return of -.43% (2 down, 1 up)

Based on this data alone, I would estimate Friday has a negative bias, but I would also ask you to keep in mind that 7 occasions is hardly data worth basing an IFT on.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

The stats infer Thursday has a positive bias

On Wednesday the S&P 500 closed down -1.05% Over the past 5035 trading sessions (20 years) there have been 159 previous occasions that closed down between -.95% to 1.15%

Of those 159 occasions the next day’s average return was -.13%

Of those 159 occasions there were 78 instances down for an average return of -1.25% this infers there’s a 49% chance the next day we close down

Of those 159 occasions there were 81 instances up for an average return of .95% This infers there’s a 51% chance the next day we close up

Of those 159 occasions there were 33 instances where the next day’s returns were -.95% or greater for an average return of -2.31% This infers there’s a 21% chance the next day we close down > -.95%

Of those 159 occasions there were 29 instances that fell on a Wednesday for an average return of .32%

Of those 29 occasions there were 13 instances of a down Thursday for an average return of -1.54% this infers there’s a 45% chance this Thursday we close down

Of those 29 occasions there were 16 instances up Thursday for an average return of .68% this infers there’s a 55% chance this Thursday we close up

Of the last 10 occasions where both Wednesday & Thursday closed down, 8 Fridays closed up

Of those 159 occasions there were 7 instances where the markets closed up on the next day between .15% and .35% for a -.52% average return

Of those 7 occasions there were 2 instances up for a .82% average return

Of those 7 occasions there were 5 instances down for a -1.06% average return

Of those 7 occasions 3 fell on a Wednesday & Thursday for a Friday average return of -.43% (2 down, 1 up)

Based on this data alone, I would estimate Friday has a negative bias, but I would also ask you to keep in mind that 7 occasions is hardly data worth basing an IFT on.

Good morning

Last 8 of 10 Fridays have closed up while the last 8 of 10 Mondays have closed down.

IMHO if you're out, stay out, I'll be looking for a re-entry late next week.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

The stats infer Thursday has a positive bias

On Wednesday the S&P 500 closed down -1.05% Over the past 5035 trading sessions (20 years) there have been 159 previous occasions that closed down between -.95% to 1.15%

Of those 159 occasions the next day’s average return was -.13%

Of those 159 occasions there were 78 instances down for an average return of -1.25% this infers there’s a 49% chance the next day we close down

Of those 159 occasions there were 81 instances up for an average return of .95% This infers there’s a 51% chance the next day we close up

Of those 159 occasions there were 33 instances where the next day’s returns were -.95% or greater for an average return of -2.31% This infers there’s a 21% chance the next day we close down > -.95%

Of those 159 occasions there were 29 instances that fell on a Wednesday for an average return of .32%

Of those 29 occasions there were 13 instances of a down Thursday for an average return of -1.54% this infers there’s a 45% chance this Thursday we close down

Of those 29 occasions there were 16 instances up Thursday for an average return of .68% this infers there’s a 55% chance this Thursday we close up

Of the last 10 occasions where both Wednesday & Thursday closed down, 8 Fridays closed up

Of those 159 occasions there were 7 instances where the markets closed up on the next day between .15% and .35% for a -.52% average return

Of those 7 occasions there were 2 instances up for a .82% average return

Of those 7 occasions there were 5 instances down for a -1.06% average return

Of those 7 occasions 3 fell on a Wednesday & Thursday for a Friday average return of -.43% (2 down, 1 up)

Based on this data alone, I would estimate Friday has a negative bias, but I would also ask you to keep in mind that 7 occasions is hardly data worth basing an IFT on.

Good morning

Last 8 of 10 Fridays have closed up while the last 8 of 10 Mondays have closed down.

IMHO if you're out, stay out, I'll be looking for a re-entry late next week.

Looking out to next week...

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[FAB1]

was yesterday just the dead cat bounce? fallen futures looking ominous.

Today's nonfarm payrolls number was well below expectations. It came in at 88,000 versus the 190,000 predicted by market economists.

Yet the unemployment rate still ticked down to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent last month.

The explanation: the labor force participation rate fell to 63.3 percent,its lowest level since 1979.

 

[JTH]

My definition of a dead cat bounce entails a failure at the 50% retracement, this didn't meet that. IMHO it was a pause.

 

[tsptalk]

Dead mouse bounce?

 

[bmneveu]

was yesterday just the dead cat bounce? fallen futures looking ominous.

Today's nonfarm payrolls number was well below expectations. It came in at 88,000 versus the 190,000 predicted by market economists.

Yet the unemployment rate still ticked down to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent last month.

The explanation: the labor force participation rate fell to 63.3 percent,its lowest level since 1979.

So less than 2/3 of the labor force is actually participating. If we add the same unemployment rate to the other 1/3, we get 10.13% unemployment for the whole work force. Accurate?

7.6/3 = 2.53
7.6 + 2.53 = 10.13 :blink:

 

[Frixxxx]

So less than 2/3 of the labor force is actually participating. If we add the same unemployment rate to the other 1/3, we get 10.13% unemployment for the whole work force. Accurate?

7.6/3 = 2.53
7.6 + 2.53 = 10.13 :blink:

Here is a good site to look at:

Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page

He has 40+ professional years at creating models and providing insight into some nasty changes to the way government reports information.

I'm thinking about going back to school to become an economist. Just have to wait for Tuition Assistance to get re-instated.

 

[jonfresno]

Here is a good site to look at:

Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page

He has 40+ professional years at creating models and providing insight into some nasty changes to the way government reports information.

I'm thinking about going back to school to become an economist. Just have to wait for Tuition Assistance to get re-instated.

I've seen him quoted before. His figures claim that unemployment is more like 20%. There's a few interviews of the guy up on YouTube.

 

[MrBowl]

I see that the U-6 is still high at 13.8%, which is coming down slowly like the other numbers. The problem with all of these statistics is that they don't count those who have completely dropped out of the workforce. That number continues to grow.

That is an interesting site and I may visit there more often. More information, wheter you agree with it or not and whether you act on it or not, is helpful.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I'm thinking about going back to school to become an economist. Just have to wait for Tuition Assistance to get re-instated.

Like you need another degree... besides, TA was cancelled???


Oh, wait, that's right... not for the Navy

yet

 

[bmneveu]

Like you need another degree... besides, TA was cancelled???


Oh, wait, that's right... not for the Navy

yet

The branches that canned it are considering bringing it back.