JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

I appreciate your charts and wisdom but what are your thoughts now that 1553 on the S & P have been taken out?

Thanks for asking, I have no particular opinion on the 1553 level, I see prices wedging up towards the recent flat top. The 30 minute PnF illustrates this hypothetical ascending triangle, if we were to believe it were to break out to the upside, then I'd give it a 1583-1590 price objective. Right now I'm cautious, while we do have 1 higher high and 2 higher lows, I haven't been pleased with this recent price action, perhaps we'll get some answers over the next few days.

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[JTH]

I hope you are right JTH.

Im starting to get the feeling Ive met the Dumb money ...and he is us. lol.

Yea it may take some time to digest this Cyrus stuff, the good news is it makes the U.S. markets much more appealing, if investors want to be in stocks, then this is the place to be.

 

[JTH]

I still have my line in the sand to bail...but I am now considering raising it to 1546. As crappy as this Cyprus deal is I'm surprised we aren't seeing a 1+% drop.

I guess it all depends on your time perspective, truth be told we could drop down to the lower trend line at 1507 (within tomorrow) and still be within an uptrend. For now, I'm looking out past this week's action, getting myslef setup for next month, the first week of April is historically strong, it's the S&P 500's 2nd best month, we'll see if it works out.

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[JTH]

Cool. The "Monday & Tuesday" per cents add up to more than 100 though. Might want to check that.

Alright friend, thanks for the QC, it's always nice when folks keep me on my toes.

From these stats, we can see that Tuesday is the 2nd most positive day with an average .17% gain, while the Tuesday & Wednesday combo is the 2nd most positive, but with the least gain. Hopefully these stats are easy enough to decipher, so you can make an informed decision about them. Maybe the most important thing to understand is that these percentages will eventually balance out, if one stat gets too lopsided, I'd rather trade against it then with it.

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[Sensei]

Maybe the most important thing to understand is that these percentages will eventually balance out, if one stat gets too lopsided, I'd rather trade against it then with it.

I believe that's what's called "regression to the mean" in statistical terms. Thanks for the edit - I hope I didn't come off as too scrutinizing.

 

[JTH]

I believe that's what's called "regression to the mean" in statistical terms. Thanks for the edit - I hope I didn't come off as too scrutinizing.

Nope, not at all, I actually appreciate it, it took me a long time to hand jam some of those stats and boy were my eyes killing me and my wrist were sore. Without your help, it would have taken me a while to catch that error, and I'd hate to mislead anyone. But the good news is that the core of that work is done and now it will take me about 10 minutes to update a week's worth of data.

 

[rcknfrewld]

I was under the impression that most Fridays were up and Mondays down...so it shouldn't regress if my premise is true...wonder if historical stats are available...I will investigate...I love charts like this...keep it up

 

[JTH]

Good morning

More stats to chew on, have you ever wondered how likely the S&P 500 was to switch direction after you put in your IFT by the noon cutoff? Over the last 3 months, Tuesday is the second highest day most likely to flip direction after you put in your IFT. It switched direction 6 times (55% of the time), held the positive direction 4 times (36% of the time) and held the negative direction 1 time (9% of the time.)

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[clester]

Good morning

More stats to chew on, have you ever wondered how likely the S&P 500 was to switch direction after you put in your IFT by the noon cutoff? Over the last 3 months, Tuesday is the second highest day most likely to flip direction after you put in your IFT. It switched direction 6 times (55% of the time), held the positive direction 4 times (36% of the time) and held the negative direction 1 time (9% of the time.)

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Good research. My feeling for a while now is that you make moves based only on closing prices. Way too many times have I tried to make a move based on how the morning went. It will get you burned. Thanks for doing the research.

 

[Cactus]

Good research. My feeling for a while now is that you make moves based only on closing prices. Way too many times have I tried to make a move based on how the morning went. It will get you burned. Thanks for doing the research.

So does yesterday's buying-up-the-close mean we are still on an uptrend, or will it only lead to another turn-around Tuesday today?

 

[Bquat]

Good morning

More stats to chew on, have you ever wondered how likely the S&P 500 was to switch direction after you put in your IFT by the noon cutoff? Over the last 3 months, Tuesday is the second highest day most likely to flip direction after you put in your IFT. It switched direction 6 times (55% of the time), held the positive direction 4 times (36% of the time) and held the negative direction 1 time (9% of the time.)

Don't get me started. I hate the deadline. With the computers the investment firm has they could handle a deadline nearer to closing but no they can't do that. Anyway thanks for the stats they may help.

 

[JTH]

April Stats

Good evening

I'm posting this early so those of you who are gearing up your April positions have some additional data to consider. April is historically the S&P 500's 2nd strongest month and overall the markets last of the best 6 months of the year. My overall assessment of April is this, it's far wiser to stay invested then to try and time the markets.

For the TSP Funds, over the past 12 years, April's price performance shows, the S&I funds run neck-in-neck as the leaders.

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For the S&P 500, over the last 20 years, April's monthly performance is staggering, with a 70% win ratio for an average 1.97% gain.

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For the S&P 500, over the last 20 years, for the 1st five days of April, Day 1 has a 75% win ratio, while the 1st five days have a 65% win ratio.

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Take care...Jason

 

[JTH]

Markets are closed, the kids are out of school, and I'm at work, this is just horrible...

 

[WorkFE]

Markets are closed, the kids are out of school, and I'm at work, this is just horrible...

Could be worse. Markets could be open and crashing plus you could be unemployed and home with the kids:nuts:

 

[jonfresno]

Markets are closed, the kids are out of school, and I'm at work, this is just horrible...

Kids out of school + I'm at work = Horrible

In programming terms, that would come up 'false' when testing with True/False tables......

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Re: April Stats

Good evening

I'm posting this early so those of you who are gearing up your April positions have some additional data to consider. April is historically the S&P 500's 2nd strongest month and overall the markets last of the best 6 months of the year. My overall assessment of April is this, it's far wiser to stay invested then to try and time the markets.

For the TSP Funds, over the past 12 years, April's price performance shows, the S&I funds run neck-in-neck as the leaders.

View attachment 23090


For the S&P 500, over the last 20 years, April's monthly performance is staggering, with a 70% win ratio for an average 1.97% gain.

View attachment 23089


For the S&P 500, over the last 20 years, for the 1st five days of April, Day 1 has a 75% win ratio, while the 1st five days have a 65% win ratio.

View attachment 23088

Take care...Jason

Dang, Dude. You're a statistical junkie, just like me. Good work bro.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: April Stats

I should mention that the Transports just had their best first quarter since 1991 - now that has to mean something don't cha think.

 

[JTH]

Re: April Stats

I should mention that the Transports just had their best first quarter since 1991 - now that has to mean something don't cha think.

Yes it does, it means it sucks we can't trade the Transports in our TSP.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Last 8 of 10 Mondays have been down.
Last 15 of 20 1st market day of April have been up.
Last 11 of 20 Week 14s have been up
Last 14 of 20 Month 4s have been up

 

[craigerv]

Good morning

Last 8 of 10 Mondays have been down.

Boooooo, for the Monday trend!