JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

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[Birchtree]

Ah, the pause that refreshes, even though it always seems like a crushing blow when it occurs.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Ah, the pause that refreshes, even though it always seems like a crushing blow when it occurs.

Not that I'm a trader anymore but, here we go.. Last hour of the day. It's looking like a comeback is on the way.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Not that I'm a trader anymore but, here we go.. Last hour of the day. It's looking like a comeback is on the way.

What chart are you looking at because the SPY is selling and the QQQ is selling and the...

 

[JimmyJoe]

What chart are you looking at because the SPY is selling and the QQQ is selling and the...

I'm looking at charts that only I can see. Ha. I just know that the SPX will hit 1550 by march. And the day is not over. Looks like it's stable. Tomorrow looks to me like we will get it all back. Especially the I fund. C30,S30,I40.

 

[JTH]

This wasn't a pretty close, SPX broke through the green trendline, but did not provide confirmation of the violation. At the same time we held at the red trendline where we've now established a short-term lower low. The other indexes are in better shape, but I'll be watching the indexes closely tomorrow and I'll be ready to hit the eject button if warranted.

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[coolhand]

I note that RSI fell convincingly today for both SPX and EMW. In fact, the Wilshire fell to 64.22 after holding above 70 since late December. I suspect we'll see more downside pressure this week, but I'm thinking it's probably a buying opportunity. Of course, with sentiment bulled up in some surveys, if bearishness doesn't rise on this weakness, we could get more downside than many expect. This will be an interesting week.

 

[JTH]

I note that RSI fell convincingly today for both SPX and EMW. In fact, the Wilshire fell to 64.22 after holding above 70 since late December. I suspect we'll see more downside pressure this week, but I'm thinking it's probably a buying opportunity. Of course, with sentiment bulled up in some surveys, if bearishness doesn't rise on this weakness, we could get more downside than many expect. This will be an interesting week.

Agreed, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rolling 3-peak top.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Here's a close up of the previous chart I posted. The dominant green trendline (while violated) did not provide confirmation of the violation so it remains intact.

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[JTH]

I came real close to making an exit today, but in the end my IFT strategy is more important to me than the the market's price action.

 

[coolhand]

I came real close to making an exit today, but in the end my IFT strategy is more important to me than the the market's price action.

The Intermediate Term remains up, but it's under attack. I don't have the brass to stay 100% long in this market.

 

[JimmyJoe]

The Intermediate Term remains up, but it's under attack. I don't have the brass to stay 100% long in this market.

I have the brass because I don't have the techniqal wizardry. Futures overseas look great now. The I fund owes us. The Dow is back to 14000. Investors like those round numbers. SPX at 1550 by March. Nice rebound today.

 

[JTH]

The Intermediate Term remains up, but it's under attack. I don't have the brass to stay 100% long in this market.

In the same boat, problem is that I'm trying to avoid spit allocations, this make situations such as this tricky to play, but having a 100% allocation keeps me focused. While split allocations work for many, for myself I find they tend to pull my convictions into two different directions. The good news is I still have 2 IFTs, the bad news is I'm not optimistic at the moment.

 

[JTH]

I have the brass because I don't have the techniqal wizardry. Futures overseas look great now. The I fund owes us. The Dow is back to 14000. Investors like those round numbers. SPX at 1550 by March. Nice rebound today.

You're starting to sound like Birchtree, I don't agree with your optimism, but at the same time the trend is up, price is indisputable, we are in a bull market and anyone who let's their fear keep them out of these markets is not going to make any money.

 

[coolhand]

You're starting to sound like Birchtree, I don't agree with your optimism, but at the same time the trend is up, price is indisputable, we are in a bull market and anyone who let's their fear keep them out of these markets is not going to make any money.

Sometimes fear is justified. There's some serious bullishness out there (NAAIM and AAII, NAZ advisors) and it tends to get punished often. I'm thinking today's strength is being helped by dip buyers who've been left behind so far this year. Things could get volatile in the days ahead.

I do have long positions, I'm just not the river boat gambler I used to be. I leave that to Tom.

 

[Birchtree]

Fear is what kept many investors out of stocks when the bull market started in 2002. I rode that triple bottom buying as much as I could. Seven years later, investors missed out again due to fear when the March 2009 bull market got underway. So if you let fear hold you back you're going to miss the market's next runaway rally.

 

[coolhand]

Fear is what kept many investors out of stocks when the bull market started in 2002. I rode that triple bottom buying as much as I could. Seven years later, investors missed out again due to fear when the March 2009 bull market got underway. So if you let fear hold you back you're going to miss the market's next runaway rally.

Fear can also keep you out of harms way if you understand those times when fear of the market is justified. Many do not. Or in some cases, care. And that's okay.

Even some of the buy and hold professionals I follow are backing away from this market.

Kenny Rogers - The Gambler - YouTube

 

[JimmyJoe]

Fear can also keep you out of harms way if you understand those times when fear of the market is justified. Many do not. Or in some cases, care. And that's okay.

Even some of the buy and hold professionals I follow are backing away from this market.

Kenny Rogers - The Gambler - YouTube

Fear? Fear is what you have when you, meaning me, lost 25%in 2011, moving in and out with no real knowledge of how this market works. To the timid, it defies you. I've seen what it gives to the strong willed, those that stand on the bow of that ship and take what the seas have to offer. I'm now right there, right now. If nothing else, from what I've gathered from the positive traction guys on this board, I'm going to personally WILL this market to 15000, SPX to 1700, and myself to 25% - 30% come December 31. It's done every year by those with a self belief unmatched by the rest of the tracker. That's all it is but it's everything.

 

[JTH]

Fear can also keep you out of harms way if you understand those times when fear of the market is justified. Many do not. Or in some cases, care. And that's okay.

Even some of the buy and hold professionals I follow are backing away from this market.

Kenny Rogers - The Gambler - YouTube

I have a feeling you and I are looking at the same charts and getting the same impressions. Logic & experience tell me this market should pullback, retrace 50% from some support level then make another go of it. For me, my timing models aren't in sync nor working, besides that, I suck at timing tops, I'm more often wrong than right. Odds are most of the money has been made, but last year I thought the same thing, and had to bust my azz in the last quarter to match the S-fund's performance, meanwhile I was eating the top 50's dust.

 

[coolhand]

I have a feeling you and I are looking at the same charts and getting the same impressions. Logic & experience tell me this market should pullback, retrace 50% from some support level then make another go of it. For me, my timing models aren't in sync nor working, besides that, I suck at timing tops, I'm more often wrong than right. Odds are most of the money has been made, but last year I thought the same thing, and had to bust my azz in the last quarter to match the S-fund's performance, meanwhile I was eating the top 50's dust.

Top picking is a difficult endeavor at best. Especially when it's being supported by liquidity. The Intermediate Term system I'm following remains on a buy, as it has for weeks now. The problem is that if and when we do top, the downside may very well wipe out 2 or 3 weeks of gains in just a couple of days. That's too fast for an Intermediate Term system to react to. So I look for other short term clues such as sentiment and technicals. I also watch liquidity, which isn't necessarily something many traders are directly aware of even if they suspect it. And so far this year, liquidity has been massive. And it distorts some technical indicators. Negative divergences abound as result, and yet the market rallies on.

I do think "THE" top is still months away even if a short term correction is overdue. But I'll let my indicators guide me in any event.